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Factoring attitudes towards armed conflict risk into selection of protected areas for conservation.

ABSTRACT: The high incidence of armed conflicts in biodiverse regions poses significant challenges in achieving international conservation targets. Because attitudes towards risk vary, we assessed different strategies for protected area planning that reflected alternative attitudes towards the risk of armed conflicts. We find that ignoring conflict risk will deliver the lowest return on investment. Opting to completely avoid conflict-prone areas offers limited improvements and could lead to species receiving no protection. Accounting for conflict by protecting additional areas to offset the impacts of armed conflicts would not only increase the return on investment (an effect that is enhanced when high-risk areas are excluded) but also increase upfront conservation costs. Our results also demonstrate that fine-scale estimations of conflict risk could enhance the cost-effectiveness of investments. We conclude that achieving biodiversity targets in volatile regions will require greater initial investment and benefit from fine-resolution estimates of conflict risk.

SUBMITTER: Hammill E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4820849 | biostudies-other | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Factoring attitudes towards armed conflict risk into selection of protected areas for conservation.

Hammill E E Tulloch A I T AI Possingham H P HP Strange N N Wilson K A KA

Nature communications 20160330

The high incidence of armed conflicts in biodiverse regions poses significant challenges in achieving international conservation targets. Because attitudes towards risk vary, we assessed different strategies for protected area planning that reflected alternative attitudes towards the risk of armed conflicts. We find that ignoring conflict risk will deliver the lowest return on investment. Opting to completely avoid conflict-prone areas offers limited improvements and could lead to species receiv ...[more]

PMID: 27025894

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Project description:AimProtected areas are key conservation tools intended to increase biodiversity and reduce extinction risks of species and populations. However, the degree to which protected areas achieve their conservation goals is generally unknown for many protected areas worldwide. We assess the effect of protected areas on the abundance of 196 common, resident bird species. If protected areas were beneficial to avian biodiversity, we expect landscapes with a higher proportion of protected areas will have higher densities of species compared to landscapes with no protection.LocationGreater Gauteng region, South Africa.MethodsWe analysed bird survey data collected over regular grid cells across the study area. We estimated bird abundance in relation to the proportion of a grid cell that was protected with the Royle-Nichols model and fitted the model once for each of the species. We examined variation in estimated abundance as a function of avian guild (defined by the type of food a species preferentially ate and its foraging mode) with a regression tree analysis.ResultsAbundance was significantly positively related to the proportion of protected areas in grid cells for 26% of the species, significantly negatively related in 15%, and not significantly related in 59% species. We found three distinct guild groups which differed in their average abundance, after accounting for associated variance. Group 1 consisted of guilds frugivores, ground-feeders, hawkers, predators, and vegivores and average abundance was strongly positively related to the proportion of protected areas. Group 2 included granivores, and average abundance was strongly negatively related to proportion of protected areas. Group 3 included gleaners only, and average abundance was not related to proportion of protected areas.Main conclusionWe conclude that the network of protected areas within the greater Gauteng region sustained relatively higher abundances of common birds and thus perform an important conservation role.

Project description:Rapid climate change represents one of the top threats to biodiversity, causing declines and extinctions of many species. Range shifts are a key response, but in many cases are incompatible with the current extent of protected areas. In this study we used ensemble species distribution models to identify range changes for 21 reptile and 16 amphibian species in Romania for the 2020s and 2050s time horizons under three emission scenarios (A1B = integrated world, rapid economic growth, A2A = divided world, rapid economic growth [realistic scenario], B2A = regional development, environmentally-friendly scenario) and no- and limited-dispersal assumptions. We then used irreplaceability analysis to test the efficacy of the Natura 2000 network to meet conservation targets. Under all scenarios and time horizons, 90% of the species suffered range contractions (greatest loses under scenarios B2A for 2020s, and A1B for 2050s), and four reptile species expanded their ranges. Two reptile and two amphibian species are predicted to completely lose climate space by 2050s. Currently, 35 species do not meet conservation targets (>40% representation in protected areas), but the target is predicted to be met for 4 - 14 species under future climate conditions, with higher representation under the limited-dispersal scenario. The Alpine and Steppic-Black Sea biogeographic regions have the highest irreplaceability value, and act as climate refugia for many reptiles and amphibians. The Natura 2000 network performs better for achieving herpetofauna conservation goals in the future, owing to the interaction between drastic range contractions, and range shifts towards existing protected areas. Thus, conservation actions for herpetofauna in Romania need to focus on: (1) building institutional capacity of protected areas in the Alpine and Steppic-Black Sea biogeographic regions, and (2) facilitating natural range shifts by improving the conservation status of herpetofauna outside protected areas, specifically in traditionally-managed landscapes and abandoned cropland.

Dataset Information

Factoring attitudes towards armed conflict risk into selection of protected areas for conservation.

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Factoring attitudes towards armed conflict risk into selection of protected areas for conservation.

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