Browse
Submit Data
Databases
API
Help

Dataset Information

0 Views

0 Connections

0 Citations

0 Reanalyses

0 Downloads

Omics score: 0

Dynamics of 2013 Sudden Stratospheric Warming event and its impact on cold weather over Eurasia: Role of planetary wave reflection.

ABSTRACT: In the present study, we investigate the impact of stratospheric planetary wave reflection on tropospheric weather over Central Eurasia during the 2013 Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event. We analyze EP fluxes and Plumb wave activity fluxes to study the two and three dimensional aspects of wave propagation, respectively. The 2013 SSW event is excited by the combined influence of wavenumber 1 (WN1) and wavenumber 2 (WN2) planetary waves, which makes the event an unusual one and seems to have significant impact on tropospheric weather regime. We observe an extraordinary development of a ridge over the Siberian Tundra and the North Pacific during first development stage (last week of December 2012) and later from the North Atlantic in the second development stage (first week of January 2013), and these waves appear to be responsible for the excitation of the WN2 pattern during the SSW. The wave packets propagated upward and were then reflected back down to central Eurasia due to strong negative wind shear in the upper stratospheric polar jet, caused by the SSW event. Waves that propagated downward led to the formation of a deep trough over Eurasia and brought extreme cold weather over Kazakhstan, the Southern part of Russia and the Northwestern part of China during mid-January 2013.

SUBMITTER: Nath D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4823715 | biostudies-other | 2016 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

ACCESS DATA

Json Xml

Similar Datasets

Which Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events Are Most Predictable?

Project description:The predictability of Northern Hemisphere sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events is considered in 10 subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecast models for 16 major SSWs that have occurred since 1998, a larger sample size than has been considered by previous works. The four factors that most succinctly distinguish those SSWs with above average predictability are a preconditioned vortex prior to the SSW, an active Madden-Julian Oscillation with enhanced convection in the West Pacific, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation phase with easterlies in the lower stratosphere, and the vortex morphology (displacement more predictable). Two of these factors appear to not have been considered in previous works focusing on a large sample of events. Most of these effects are not statistically significant at the 95% level due to the still relatively small sample size, though all would exceed a 90% criteria at least marginally. Combined, however, they account for 40% of the inter-event spread in SSW predictability, thus indicating that SSWs with favorable precursors are significantly more predictable.

| S-EPMC9540765 | biostudies-literature

Limited surface impacts of the January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming.

Project description:Subseasonal weather prediction can reduce economic disruption and loss of life, especially during "windows of opportunity" when noteworthy events in the Earth system are followed by characteristic weather patterns. Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), breakdowns of the winter stratospheric polar vortex, are one such event. They often precede warm temperatures in Northern Canada and cold, stormy weather throughout Europe and the United States - including the most recent SSW on January 5th, 2021. Here we assess the drivers of surface weather in the weeks following the SSW through initial condition "scrambling" experiments using the real-time CESM2(WACCM6) Earth system prediction framework. We find that the SSW itself had a limited impact, and that stratospheric polar vortex stretching and wave reflection had no discernible contribution to the record cold in North America in February. Instead, the tropospheric circulation and bidirectional coupling between the troposphere and stratosphere were dominant contributors to variability.

| S-EPMC8894394 | biostudies-literature

Observations of Reduced Turbulence and Wave Activity in the Arctic Middle Atmosphere Following the January 2015 Sudden Stratospheric Warming.

Project description:Measurements of turbulence and waves were made as part of the Mesosphere-Lower Thermosphere Turbulence Experiment (MTeX) on the night of 25-26 January 2015 at Poker Flat Research Range, Chatanika, Alaska (65°N, 147°W). Rocket-borne ionization gauge measurements revealed turbulence in the 70- to 88-km altitude region with energy dissipation rates between 0.1 and 24 mW/kg with an average value of 2.6 mW/kg. The eddy diffusion coefficient varied between 0.3 and 134 m2/s with an average value of 10 m2/s. Turbulence was detected around mesospheric inversion layers (MILs) in both the topside and bottomside of the MILs. These low levels of turbulence were measured after a minor sudden stratospheric warming when the circulation continued to be disturbed by planetary waves and winds remained weak in the stratosphere and mesosphere. Ground-based lidar measurements characterized the ensemble of inertia-gravity waves and monochromatic gravity waves. The ensemble of inertia-gravity waves had a specific potential energy of 0.8 J/kg over the 40- to 50-km altitude region, one of the lowest values recorded at Chatanika. The turbulence measurements coincided with the overturning of a 2.5-hr monochromatic gravity wave in a depth of 3 km at 85 km. The energy dissipation rates were estimated to be 3 mW/kg for the ensemble of waves and 18 mW/kg for the monochromatic wave. The MTeX observations reveal low levels of turbulence associated with low levels of gravity wave activity. In the light of other Arctic observations and model studies, these observations suggest that there may be reduced turbulence during disturbed winters.

| S-EPMC6557582 | biostudies-literature

Equatorial ionization anomaly response to lunar phase and stratospheric sudden warming.

Project description:This study examines the ionosphere response to gravitational forces of the lunar phase and dynamical disturbances of the stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs). The total electron content (TEC) of global ionosphere maps is employed to examine responses of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) crests to lunar phases and twelve SSW events during 2000-2013. The most prominent feature in the ionosphere is the EIA, characterized by two enhanced TEC crests at low latitudes straddling the magnetic equator, which can be used to observe ionospheric plasma dynamics and structures. Results show that the EIA crest appearance time on new/full moons (first/third quarters) leads (lags) that of the overall 14-year average, which causes a pattern of TEC morning enhancements (suppressions) and afternoon suppressions (enhancements). A statistical analysis shows that SSWs can also significantly cause the early appearance of EIA crests, regardless of the lunar phase. Thus, both lunar phase and SSWs can significantly modulate the appearance time of EIA crest and ionospheric plasma dynamics and structures.

| S-EPMC8289839 | biostudies-literature

Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events.

Project description:Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been shown to be associated with the presence of high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves within a particular wavelength range (zonal wavenumber 6-8). The underlying mechanistic relationship involves the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) of synoptic-scale waves with that wavenumber range becoming trapped within an effective mid-latitude atmospheric waveguide. Recent work suggests an increase in recent decades in the occurrence of QRA-favorable conditions and associated extreme weather, possibly linked to amplified Arctic warming and thus a climate change influence. Here, we isolate a specific fingerprint in the zonal mean surface temperature profile that is associated with QRA-favorable conditions. State-of-the-art ("CMIP5") historical climate model simulations subject to anthropogenic forcing display an increase in the projection of this fingerprint that is mirrored in multiple observational surface temperature datasets. Both the models and observations suggest this signal has only recently emerged from the background noise of natural variability.

| S-EPMC5366916 | biostudies-literature

Impact of September 2019 Antarctic Sudden Stratospheric Warming on Mid-Latitude Ionosphere and Thermosphere Over North America and Europe.

Project description:Limited observational evidence indicates that ionospheric changes caused by Arctic sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) occur at middle latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere. However, it is not known if a similar interhemispheric linkage is produced by Antarctic SSWs. Here we examine thermospheric and ionospheric anomalies observed in September 2019 at middle latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. We report persistent (at least 30 days) and strong (up to 80%-100%) positive anomalies in the daytime total electron content (TEC) and increases in the thermospheric O/N2 ratio in the western region of North America. However, central and eastern regions of North America experience moderate suppression of TEC reaching 20%-40% of the baseline. Different positive and negative anomalies are observed over the European sector. We hypothesize that regional differences in the TEC response could be related to modulation of thermospheric winds during SSWs, changes in thermospheric composition, and differences in declination angle.

| S-EPMC9285337 | biostudies-literature

Predicting the Downward and Surface Influence of the February 2018 and January 2019 Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events in Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Models.

Project description:Using the real-time predictions from 11 models, this study analyzes the prediction of the downward propagation and surface impact of the 2018 and 2019 sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). These two SSWs differed both in their morphology types (2018: split; 2019: displacement followed by split) and magnitudes (the former being stronger). With a large sample size (>2,200) of multimodel ensemble forecasts, it is revealed that the strength of the SSW is more important than the vortex morphology in determining the magnitude of its downward impact, with strong SSWs more likely to propagate downward than weak SSWs. Therefore, based on the probabilistic forecasts, the observed strong SSW in February 2018 was more likely to have a downward and surface impact than the January 2019 SSW. The relationship between the 10-hPa dominant wave number and the 100-hPa polar cap height (or the Northern Annular Mode) is weak, implying that the dominant wave number might not be the primary factor determining the downward propagation of SSWs in the two analyzed cases. Hence, the high polar cap height (or negative Northern Annular Mode) response in the lower stratosphere and troposphere following the February 2018 SSW is mainly attributed to its strong intensity rather than the split morphology. Further, the 2-m temperature anomaly pattern following the January 2019 SSW is not forecasted due to its weak downward propagation, whereas the 2-m temperature in North Eurasia, Middle East, south China, and eastern United States could be forecasted for the downward propagating February 2018 SSW. However, regional rainfall anomalies are poorly forecasted (both in a deterministic and probabilistic sense) for both SSWs.

| S-EPMC7507786 | biostudies-literature

The Downward Influence of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings: Association with Tropospheric Precursors.

Project description:Tropospheric features preceding sudden stratospheric warming events (SSWs) are identified using a large compendium of events obtained from a chemistry-climate model. In agreement with recent observational studies, it is found that approximately one-third of SSWs are preceded by extreme episodes of wave activity in the lower troposphere. The relationship becomes stronger in the lower stratosphere, where ~60% of SSWs are preceded by extreme wave activity at 100 hPa. Additional analysis characterizes events that do or do not appear to subsequently impact the troposphere, referred to as downward and non-downward propagating SSWs, respectively. On average, tropospheric wave activity is larger preceding downward-propagating SSWs compared to non-downward propagating events, and associated in particular with a doubly strengthened Siberian high. Of the SSWs that were preceded by extreme lower-tropospheric wave activity, ~2/3 propagated down to the troposphere, and hence the presence of extreme lower-tropospheric wave activity can only be used probabilistically to predict a slight increase or decrease at the onset, of the likelihood of tropospheric impacts to follow. However, a large number of downward and non-downward propagating SSWs must be considered (>35), before the difference becomes statistically significant. The precursors are also robust upon comparison with composites consisting of randomly selected tropospheric northern annular mode (NAM) events. The downward influence and precursors to split and displacement events are also examined. It is found that anomalous upward wave-1 fluxes precede both cases. Splits exhibit a near instantaneous, barotropic response in the stratosphere and troposphere, while displacements have a stronger long-term influence.

| S-EPMC7440399 | biostudies-literature

Quasiresonant amplification of planetary waves and recent Northern Hemisphere weather extremes.

Project description:In recent years, the Northern Hemisphere has suffered several devastating regional summer weather extremes, such as the European heat wave in 2003, the Russian heat wave and the Indus river flood in Pakistan in 2010, and the heat wave in the United States in 2011. Here, we propose a common mechanism for the generation of persistent longitudinal planetary-scale high-amplitude patterns of the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. Those patterns--with zonal wave numbers m = 6, 7, or 8--are characteristic of the above extremes. We show that these patterns might result from trapping within midlatitude waveguides of free synoptic waves with zonal wave numbers k ? m. Usually, the quasistationary dynamical response with the above wave numbers m to climatological mean thermal and orographic forcing is weak. Such midlatitude waveguides, however, may favor a strong magnification of that response through quasiresonance.

| S-EPMC3619331 | biostudies-literature

Towards reliable extreme weather and climate event attribution.

Project description:Climate change is shaping extreme heat and rain. To what degree human activity has increased the risk of high impact events is of high public concern and still heavily debated. Recent studies attributed single extreme events to climate change by comparing climate model experiments where the influence of an external driver can be included or artificially suppressed. Many of these results however did not properly account for model errors in simulating the probabilities of extreme event occurrences. Here we show, exploiting advanced correction techniques from the weather forecasting field, that correcting properly for model probabilities alters the attributable risk of extreme events to climate change. This study illustrates the need to correct for this type of model error in order to provide trustworthy assessments of climate change impacts.

| S-EPMC6465259 | biostudies-other

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

OmicsDI is an Elixir interoperability service. Learn more ›

Tweets

OmicsDI Databases

PRIDE
PeptideAtlas
MassIVE
JPOST Repository
Physiome Model Repository

EGA
EVA
ENA
LINCS
PAXDB
Cell Collective

MetaboLights
Metabolomics Workbench
MetabolomeExpress
GNPS
BioModels
FAIRDOMHub

ArrayExpress
dbGaP
ExpressionAtlas
GEO
NODE

Information

Databases
Help
API
Contact us
Code on GitHub
Terms of use
Submit Data