Dataset Information

Estrogen Receptor Status and the Future Burden of Invasive and In Situ Breast Cancers in the United States.

ABSTRACT: No study has predicted the future incidence rate and annual burden (number) of new cases in the United States of invasive and in situ female breast cancers stratified by the estrogen receptor (ER) status.We constructed forecasts for women age 30 to 84 years in 2011 through 2030 using cancer incidence data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program, novel age-period-cohort forecasting models, and population projections from the US Census Bureau.The total number of new tumors (invasive plus in situ) is expected to rise from 283 000 in 2011 to 441 000 in 2030 (plausible range 353 500 to 466 700 cases). The proportion of all new case patients age 70 to 84 years is expected to increase from 24.3% to 34.8%, while the proportion ages 50 to 69 years is expected to decrease from 54.7% to 43.6%. The proportion of ER-positive invasive cancers is expected to remain nearly the same at 62.6%, whereas the proportion of ER-positive in situ cancers is expected to increase from 19.1% to 28.9%. The proportion of ER-negative cancers (invasive and in situ) is expected to decrease from 16.8% to 8.6%.Breast cancer overall will rise in the United States through 2030, especially for ER-positive in situ tumors among women age 70 to 84 years. In contrast, ER-negative invasive and in situ tumors will fall, for reasons that are not fully understood. These results highlight a need to optimize case management among older women, characterize the natural history of in situ cancers, and identify those factors responsible for declining ER-negative incidence.

SUBMITTER: Rosenberg PS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4836802 | biostudies-other | 2015 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Estrogen Receptor Status and the Future Burden of Invasive and In Situ Breast Cancers in the United States.

Rosenberg Philip S PS Barker Kimberly A KA Anderson William F WF

Journal of the National Cancer Institute 20150610 9

<h4>Background</h4>No study has predicted the future incidence rate and annual burden (number) of new cases in the United States of invasive and in situ female breast cancers stratified by the estrogen receptor (ER) status.<h4>Methods</h4>We constructed forecasts for women age 30 to 84 years in 2011 through 2030 using cancer incidence data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program, novel age-period-cohort forecasting models, and population projections from the US Census Bureau ...[more]

PMID: 26063794

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Project description:ImportanceEstimating the US burden of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infections is important for planning and tracking success of prevention strategies.ObjectiveTo describe updated national estimates and characteristics of health care- and community-associated invasive methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infections in 2011.Design, setting, and participantsActive laboratory-based case finding identified MRSA cultures in 9 US metropolitan areas from 2005 through 2011. Invasive infections (MRSA cultured from normally sterile body sites) were classified as health care-associated community-onset (HACO) infections (cultured ≤ 3 days after admission and/or prior year dialysis, hospitalization, surgery, long-term care residence, or central vascular catheter presence ≤ 2 days before culture); hospital-onset infections (cultured >3 days after admission); or community-associated infections if no other criteria were met. National estimates were adjusted using US census and US Renal Data System data.Main outcomes and measuresNational estimates of invasive HACO, hospital-onset, and community-associated MRSA infections using US census and US Renal Data System data as the denominator.ResultsAn estimated 80,461 (95% CI, 69,515-93,914) invasive MRSA infections occurred nationally in 2011. Of these, 48,353 (95% CI, 40,195-58,642) were HACO infections; 14,156 (95% CI, 10,096-20,440) were hospital-onset infections; and 16,560 (95% CI, 12,806-21,811) were community-associated infections. Since 2005, adjusted national estimated incidence rates decreased among HACO infections by 27.7% and hospital-onset infections decreased by 54.2%; community-associated infections decreased by only 5.0%. Among recently hospitalized community-onset (nondialysis) infections, 64% occurred 3 months or less after discharge, and 32% of these were admitted from long-term care facilities.Conclusions and relevanceAn estimated 30,800 fewer invasive MRSA infections occurred in the United States in 2011 compared with 2005; in 2011 fewer infections occurred among patients during hospitalization than among persons in the community without recent health care exposures. Effective strategies for preventing infections outside acute care settings will have the greatest impact on further reducing invasive MRSA infections nationally.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Metastatic prostate cancer (PCA) remains a highly lethal malignancy in the USA. As prostate-specific antigen testing declines nationally, detailed assessment of current age- and race-specific incidence trends and quantitative forecasts are needed. OBJECTIVE:To evaluate the current trends of metastatic PCA by age and race, and forecast the number of new cases (annual burden) and future trends. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS:We derived incidence data for men aged ?45 yr who were diagnosed with metastatic PCA from the population-based Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registries. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:We examined the current trends of metastatic PCA from 2004 to 2014, and forecast the annual burden and incidence rates by age and race for 2015-2025, using age-period-cohort models and population projections. We also examined alternative forecasts (2012-2025) using trends prior to the revised screening guidelines issued in 2012. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS:Metastatic PCA, steadily declining from 2004 to 2007 by 1.45%/yr, began to increase by 0.58%/yr after 2008, which accelerated to 2.74%/yr following the 2012 United States Preventive Services Task Force recommendations-a pattern that was magnified among men aged ?69 yr and white men. Forecasts project the incidence to increase by 1.03%/yr through 2025, with men aged 45-54 yr (2.29%/yr) and 55-69 yr (1.53%/yr) increasing more rapidly. Meanwhile, the annual burden is expected to increase 42% by 2025. Our forecasts estimated an additional 15 891 metastatic cases from 2015 to 2025 compared with alternative forecasts using trends prior to 2012. CONCLUSIONS:The recent uptick in metastatic PCA rates has resulted in forecasts that project increasing rates through 2025, particularly among men aged ?69 yr. Moreover, racial disparities are expected to persist and the annual burden will increase considerably. The impact of the prior and current PCA screening recommendations on metastatic PCA rates requires continued examination. PATIENT SUMMARY:In this report, we assessed how the incidence of metastatic prostate cancer has changed over recent years, and forecast future incidence trends and the number of new cases expected each year. We found that the incidence of metastatic prostate cancer has been increasing more rapidly since 2012, resulting in a rise in both future incidence and the number of new cases by 2025. Future incidence rates and the number of new cases were reduced in alternative forecasts using data prior to the 2012 United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommendations against prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing for prostate cancer. There is a need for additional research that examines whether national declines in PSA testing contributed to increases in rates of metastatic disease. The incidence of metastatic disease in black men is still expected to occur at considerably higher rates compared with that in white men.

Dataset Information

Estrogen Receptor Status and the Future Burden of Invasive and In Situ Breast Cancers in the United States.

Publications

Estrogen Receptor Status and the Future Burden of Invasive and In Situ Breast Cancers in the United States.

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