Modeling health gains and cost savings for ten dietary salt reduction targets.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Wilson N
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4847342 | biostudies-other | 2016 Apr
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other
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Project description:BackgroundGiven the high importance of dietary sodium (salt) as a global disease risk factor, our objective was to compare the impact of eight sodium reduction interventions, including feasible and more theoretical ones, to assist prioritisation.MethodsEpidemiological modelling and cost-utility analysis were performed using a Markov macro-simulation model. The setting was New Zealand (NZ) (2.3 million citizens, aged 35+ years) which has detailed individual-level administrative cost data.ResultsOf the most feasible interventions, the largest health gains were from (in descending order): (i) mandatory 25% reduction in sodium levels in all processed foods; (ii) the package of interventions performed in the United Kingdom (UK); (iii) mandatory 25% reduction in sodium levels in bread, processed meats and sauces; (iv) media campaign (as per a previous UK one); (v) voluntary food labelling as currently used in NZ; (vi) dietary counselling as currently used in NZ. Even larger health gains came from the more theoretical options of a "sinking lid" on the amount of food salt released to the national market to achieve an average adult intake of 2300 mg sodium/day (211,000 QALYs gained, 95% uncertainty interval: 170,000-255,000), and from a salt tax. All the interventions produced net cost savings (except counseling--albeit still cost-effective). Cost savings were especially large with the sinking lid (NZ$ 1.1 billion, US$ 0.7 billion). Also the salt tax would raise revenue (up to NZ$ 452 million/year). Health gain per person was greater for M?ori (indigenous population) men and women compared to non-M?ori.ConclusionsThis study substantially expands on the range of previously modelled salt reduction interventions and suggests that some of these might achieve major health gains and major cost savings (particularly the regulatory interventions). They could also reduce ethnic inequalities in health.
| S-EPMC4409110 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundHigh intake of added sugar is linked to weight gain and cardiometabolic risk. In 2018, the US National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative proposed government-supported voluntary national sugar reduction targets. This intervention's potential effects and cost-effectiveness are unclear.MethodsA validated microsimulation model, CVD-PREDICT (Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model for Risk, Events, Detection, Interventions, Costs, and Trends), coded in C++, was used to estimate incremental changes in type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs, and cost-effectiveness of the US National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative policy. The model was run at the individual level, incorporating the annual probability of each person's transition between health statuses on the basis of risk factors. The model incorporated national demographic and dietary data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey across 3 cycles (2011 through 2016), added sugar-related diseases from meta-analyses, and policy costs and health-related costs from established sources. A simulated nationally representative US population was created and followed until age 100 years or death, with 2019 as the year of intervention start. Findings were evaluated over 10 years and a lifetime from health care and societal perspectives. Uncertainty was evaluated in a 1-way analysis by assuming 50% industry compliance and probabilistic sensitivity analyses through a second-order Monte Carlo approach. Model outputs included averted diabetes cases, CVD events and CVD deaths, QALYs gained, and formal health care cost savings, stratified by age, race, income, and education.ResultsAchieving the US National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative sugar reduction targets could prevent 2.48 million CVD events, 0.49 million CVD deaths, and 0.75 million diabetes cases; gain 6.67 million QALYs; and save $160.88 billion net costs from a societal perspective over a lifetime. The policy became cost-effective (<150 000/QALYs) at 6 years, highly cost-effective (<50 000/QALYs) at 7 years, and cost-saving at 9 years. Results were robust from a health care perspective, with lower (50%) industry compliance, and in probabilistic sensitivity analyses. The policy could also reduce disparities, with greatest estimated health gains per million adults among Black or Hispanic individuals, lower income, and less educated Americans.ConclusionsImplementing and achieving the US National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative sugar reformation targets could generate substantial health gains, equity gains, and cost savings.
| S-EPMC8555680 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo develop a quasi-experimental method for estimating Population Health Management (PHM) program savings that mitigates common sources of confounding, supports regular updates for continued program monitoring, and estimates model precision.Data sourcesAdministrative, program, and claims records from January 2005 through June 2009.Data collection/extraction methodsData are aggregated by member and month.Study designStudy participants include chronically ill adult commercial health plan members. The intervention group consists of members currently enrolled in PHM, stratified by intensity level. Comparison groups include (1) members never enrolled, and (2) PHM participants not currently enrolled. Mixed model smoothing is employed to regress monthly medical costs on time (in months), a history of PHM enrollment, and monthly program enrollment by intensity level. Comparison group trends are used to estimate expected costs for intervention members. Savings are realized when PHM participants' costs are lower than expected.Principal findingsThis method mitigates many of the limitations faced using traditional pre-post models for estimating PHM savings in an observational setting, supports replication for ongoing monitoring, and performs basic statistical inference.ConclusionThis method provides payers with a confident basis for making investment decisions.
| S-EPMC3626355 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background: Lung cancer (LC) care is resource and cost intensive. We launched a Multidisciplinary LC Clinic (MDC), where patients with a new LC diagnosis received concurrent oncology consultation, resulting in improved time to LC assessment and treatment. Here, we evaluate the impact of MDC on health resource utilization, patient and caregiver costs, and secondary patient benefits. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed patients in a rapid assessment clinic with a new LC diagnosis pre-MDC (September 2016-February 2017) and post-MDC implementation (February 2017-December 2018). Data are reported as means; unpaired t-tests and ANOVA were used to assess for significance. We also conducted a cost analysis. Resource utilization, out-of-pocket costs, procedure-related costs, and indirect costs were evaluated from the societal perspective and presented in 2019 Canadian dollars (CAD); multi-way worst/best case and threshold sensitivity analyses were conducted. Results: We reviewed 428 patients (78 traditional model, 350 MDC). Patients in the MDC model required significantly fewer oncology visits from LC diagnosis to first LC treatment (1.62 vs. 2.68, p < 0.001), which was significant for patients with stage 1, 3, and 4 disease. Compared with the traditional model, there was no change in mean biopsies/patient (1.32 traditional vs. 1.17 MDC, p = 0.18) or staging investigations/patient (2.24 traditional vs. 2.02 MDC, p = 0.20). Post-MDC, there was an increase in invasive mediastinal staging for patients with stage 2/3 LC (15.0% vs. 60.0%, p < 0.001). Over 22 months, MDC resulted in savings of CAD 48,389 including CAD 24,167 CAD in direct patient out-of-pocket expenses. For the threshold analyses, MDC was estimated to cost CAD 25,708 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY), considered to be below current willingness to pay thresholds (at CAD 80,000 per QALY). MDC also facilitated oncology assessment for 29 non-LC patients. Conclusions: An MDC led to a reduction in patient visits and direct patient and caregiver costs.
| S-EPMC8161784 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Forty-five percent of births in the United States are unintended, and the costs of unintended pregnancy and birth are substantial. Clinical and policy interventions that increase access to the most effective reversible contraceptive methods (intrauterine devices and contraceptive implants) have potential to generate significant cost savings. Evidence of cost savings for these interventions is needed. OBJECTIVE:The purpose of this study was to conduct a cost-savings analysis of the Contraceptive CHOICE Project, which provided counseling and no-cost contraception, to demonstrate the value of investment in enhanced contraceptive care to the Missouri Medicaid program. STUDY DESIGN:The Contraceptive CHOICE Project was a prospective cohort study of 9256 reproductive-age women who were enrolled between 2007 and 2011. Study follow-up was completed October 2013. This analysis includes 5061 Contraceptive CHOICE Project participants who were current Missouri Medicaid beneficiaries or were uninsured and reported household incomes <201% of the federal poverty line. We created a simulated comparison group of women who were receiving care through the Missouri Title X program and modeled the contraception and pregnancy outcomes that would have occurred in the absence of the Contraceptive CHOICE Project. Data about contraceptive use for the comparison group (N=5061) were obtained from the Missouri Title X program and adjusted based on age, race, ethnicity, and income. To make an accurate comparison that would account for the difference in the 2 populations, we used our simulation model to estimate total Contraceptive CHOICE Project costs and total comparison group costs. We reported all costs in 2013 dollars to account for inflation. RESULTS:Among the Contraceptive CHOICE Project participants who were included, the uptake of intrauterine devices and implants was 76.1% compared with 4.8% among the comparison group. The estimated contraceptive cost for the simulated Contraceptive CHOICE Project group was $4.0 million vs $2.3 million for the comparison group. The estimated numbers of unintended pregnancies and births averted among the simulated Contraceptive CHOICE Project group compared with the comparison group were 927 and 483, respectively, which represented a savings in pregnancy and maternity care of $6.7 million. We estimated that the total cost savings for the state of Missouri attributable to the Contraceptive CHOICE Project was $5.0 million (40.7%) over the project duration. CONCLUSION:A program providing counseling and no-cost contraception yields substantial cost savings because of the increased uptake of highly effective contraception and consequent averted unintended pregnancy and birth.
| S-EPMC6741429 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of two alternative direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment policies in a real-life cohort of hepatitis C virus-infected patients: policy 1, "universal," treat all patients, regardless of fibrosis stage; policy 2, treat only "prioritized" patients, delay treatment of the remaining patients until reaching stage F3. A liver disease progression Markov model, which used a lifetime horizon and health care system perspective, was applied to the PITER cohort (representative of Italian hepatitis C virus-infected patients in care). Specifically, 8,125 patients naive to DAA treatment, without clinical, sociodemographic, or insurance restrictions, were used to evaluate the policies' cost-effectiveness. The patients' age and fibrosis stage, assumed DAA treatment cost of €15,000/patient, and the Italian liver disease costs were used to evaluate quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) of policy 1 versus policy 2. To generalize the results, a European scenario analysis was performed, resampling the study population, using the mean European country-specific health states costs and mean treatment cost of €30,000. For the Italian base-case analysis, the cost-effective ICER obtained using policy 1 was €8,775/QALY. ICERs remained cost-effective in 94%-97% of the 10,000 probabilistic simulations. For the European treatment scenario the ICER obtained using policy 1 was €19,541.75/QALY. ICER was sensitive to variations in DAA costs, in the utility value of patients in fibrosis stages F0-F3 post-sustained virological response, and in the transition probabilities from F0 to F3. The ICERs decrease with decreasing DAA prices, becoming cost-saving for the base price (€15,000) discounts of at least 75% applied in patients with F0-F2 fibrosis.ConclusionExtending hepatitis C virus treatment to patients in any fibrosis stage improves health outcomes and is cost-effective; cost-effectiveness significantly increases when lowering treatment prices in early fibrosis stages. (Hepatology 2017;66:1814-1825).
| S-EPMC5765396 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundRecent patent losses for antiretroviral drugs (ARV) have led to the debate of cost-saving through the replacement of patented drugs with generic drugs. The split of recommended single-tablet regimens (STR) into their single substance partners is one of the considerations mentioned in said debate. Particularly, generic tenofovir disoproxil/emtricitabine (TDF/FTC) is expected to hold untapped cost-saving potential, which may curb increasing overall expenditures for combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) within the statutory health insurance (SHI) of Germany.MethodsData of ARV reimbursed by the SHI were used to describe the trends of defined daily doses (DDD) as well as the revenue within the German ARV market. They were also used to determine the cost-savings of moving to generic drugs. The time period observed was between January 2017 and June 2019. The potential cost-savings were determined with following assumption in mind: the maximum possible use of generic ARV, including 1) the split of STR and replacing all substance partners with generic ones, and 2) replacing patented tenofovir alafenamide/emtricitabine (TAF/FTC) with generic TDF/FTC.ResultsThroughout the observation period, the DDD of generic ARV increased nearly five-fold while their revenue increased more than four-fold. Total cost-saving showed a sharp increase over the same period, with generic TDF/FTC accounting for a share of around 70%. The largest potential cost-saving could have been achieved through replacing patented TAF/FTC with generic TDF/FTC, peaking at nearly 10% of total revenue, but showing decreasing trends in general.ConclusionThe progressive distribution of generic ARV ensured increasing cost-savings, but consequently curbed the potential cost-savings. Unique price reductions of generic TDF/FTC have played a pivotal role for these effects. In any case, substituting with generic ARV should not fail to adhere to the treatment guidelines and continue to consider the medical requirements for the treatment.
| S-EPMC8756633 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The impact of nutritional behaviors on health is beyond debate and has the potential to affect the economic outputs of societies in significant ways. Dietary fatty acids have become a central theme in nutrition research in recent years, and the popularity of dietary oils rich in healthy fatty acids, such as monounsaturated fatty acid (MUFA), for cooking applications and use in food products has increased. Here, the objective is to summarize the health effects of MUFA-rich diets and to systematically estimate the potential healthcare and societal cost savings that could be realized by increasing MUFA intakes compared with other dietary fat intakes in the United States. Using a scoping review approach, the literature of randomized controlled clinical trials was searched and a 4-step cost-of-illness analysis was developed, which included estimates of success rate, disease biomarker reduction, disease incidence reduction, and cost savings. Findings revealed improvements in established biomarkers and in incidence of coronary heart disease and type 2 diabetes, along with potentially substantial annual healthcare and societal cost savings when recommendations for daily MUFA intake were followed. In summary, beyond the beneficial health effects of MUFA-rich diets, potential economic benefits suggest practical implications for consumers, food processors, and healthcare authorities alike.
| S-EPMC5914363 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Dietary salt reduction has been recommended as a cost-effective population-wide strategy to prevent cardiovascular disease. The health and economic impact of salt consumption on the future burden of stroke in Vietnam is not known. Objective: To estimate the avoidable incidence of and deaths from stroke, as well as the healthy life years and healthcare costs that could be gained from reducing salt consumption in Vietnam. Methods: This was a macrosimulation health and economic impact assessment study. Data on blood pressure, salt consumption and stroke epidemiology were obtained from the Vietnam 2015 STEPS survey and the Global Burden of Disease study. A proportional multi-cohort multistate lifetable Markov model was used to estimate the impact of achieving the Vietnam national salt targets of 8 g/day by 2025 and 7 g/day by 2030, and to the 5 g/day WHO recommendation by 2030. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was conducted to quantify the uncertainty in our projections. Results: If the 8 g/day, 7 g/day, and 5 g/day targets were achieved, the prevalence of hypertension could reduce by 1.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 0.5 to 2.3), 2.0% (95% UI: 0.8 to 3.6), and 3.5% (95% UI: 1.5 to 6.3), respectively. This would translate, respectively, to over 80,000, 180,000, and 257,000 incident strokes and over 18,000, 55,000, and 73,000 stroke deaths averted. By 2025, over 56,554 stroke-related health-adjusted life years (HALYs) could be gained while saving over US$ 42.6 million in stroke healthcare costs. By 2030, about 206,030 HALYs (for 7 g/day target) and 262,170 HALYs (for 5 g/day target) could be gained while saving over US$ 88.1 million and US$ 122.3 million in stroke healthcare costs respectively. Conclusion: Achieving the national salt reduction targets could result in substantial population health and economic benefits. Estimated gains were larger if the WHO salt targets were attained and if changes can be sustained over the longer term. Future work should consider the equity impacts of specific salt reduction programs.
| S-EPMC8213032 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThere is a pressing need to include cost data in the Lives Saved Tool (LiST). This paper proposes a method that combines data from both the WHO CHOosing Interventions that are Cost-Effective (CHOICE) database and the OneHealth Tool (OHT) to develop unit costs for delivering child and maternal health services, both alone and bundled.MethodsFirst, a translog cost function is estimated to calculate factor shares of personnel, consumables, other direct (variable or recurrent costs excluding personnel and consumables) and indirect (capital or investment) costs. Primary source facility level data from Kenya, Namibia, South Africa, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe are utilized, with separate analyses for hospitals and health centres. Second, the resulting other-direct and indirect factor shares are applied to country unit costs from the WHO CHOICE unit cost database to calculate those portions of unit cost. Third, the remainder of the costs is calculated using default data from the OHT. Fourth, we calculate the effect of bundling services by assuming that a LiST intervention visit takes an average of 20 minutes when delivered alone but only incremental time in addition to the basic visit when delivered in a bundle.ResultsPersonnel costs account for the greatest share of costs for both hospitals and health centres at 50% and 38%, respectively. The percentages differ between hospitals and health centres for consumables (21% versus 17%), other direct (7.5% versus 6.75%), and indirect (22% versus 23%) costs. Combining the other-direct and indirect factor shares with the WHO CHOICE database and the other costs from OHT provides a comprehensive cost estimate of LiST interventions. Finally, the cost of six recommended antenatal care (ANC) interventions is $69.76 when delivered alone, but $61.18 when delivered as a bundle, a savings of $8.58 (12.2%).ConclusionsThis paper proposes a method for estimating a comprehensive cost of providing child and maternal health interventions by combining labor, consumables and drug costs from OHT with indirect and other-direct proportional costs from WHO CHOICE. In addition, we demonstrate the potential cost savings that can be achieved from bundling the delivery of essential antenatal care interventions rather than delivering the same interventions alone.
| S-EPMC3847650 | biostudies-literature