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High Short-Term Blood Pressure Variability Predicts Long-Term Cardiovascular Mortality in Untreated Hypertensives But Not in Normotensives.

ABSTRACT: The prognostic value of the short-term blood pressure variability (BPV) from the 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) remains controversial. The present study aimed to investigate the long-term prognostic value of a high BPV in normotensive and hypertensive subjects from a community-based population.A cohort of 624 normotensive and 633 untreated hypertensive Taiwanese participants (overall 669 men, aged 30-79 years) with baseline ABPM and 20-year all-cause and cardiovascular mortality data was drawn from a community-based survey. BPV was assessed by the read-to-read average real variability of the 24-hour diastolic and systolic blood pressure (SBP) (ARVd and ARVs, respectively).In Cox proportional hazards analysis, ARVd predicted cardiovascular mortality independently of office SBP (hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) per 1 SD: 1.31 (1.10-1.55), respectively, bivariate analysis), 24-hour SBP (HR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.00-1.43), and conventional risk factors (age, sex, smoking, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and fasting blood glucose, HR: 1.40, 95% CI: 1.18-1.67). In subjects with hypertension, a high vs. low ARVd (median: 8.8mm Hg) significantly predicted cardiovascular mortality (HR: 2.11, 95% CI: 1.23-3.62 and HR: 2.04, 95% CI: 1.19-3.51, respectively), when the conventional risk factors plus office SBP or 24-hour SBP were accounted for, respectively. Similar but less significant results were obtained with ARVs. A high ARVd or ARVs did not significantly predict cardiovascular mortality in the normotensive subjects.A high short-term BPV is significantly predictive of long-term cardiovascular mortality in untreated hypertensive but not normotensive community-based subjects, independently of office or 24-hour SBP.

SUBMITTER: Hsu PF

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4901860 | biostudies-other | 2016 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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High Short-Term Blood Pressure Variability Predicts Long-Term Cardiovascular Mortality in Untreated Hypertensives But Not in Normotensives.

Hsu Pai-Feng PF Cheng Hao-Min HM Wu Cheng-Hsueh CH Sung Shih-Hsien SH Chuang Shao-Yuan SY Lakatta Edward G EG Yin Frank C P FC Chou Pesus P Chen Chen-Huan CH

American journal of hypertension 20160201 7

<h4>Background</h4>The prognostic value of the short-term blood pressure variability (BPV) from the 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) remains controversial. The present study aimed to investigate the long-term prognostic value of a high BPV in normotensive and hypertensive subjects from a community-based population.<h4>Methods</h4>A cohort of 624 normotensive and 633 untreated hypertensive Taiwanese participants (overall 669 men, aged 30-79 years) with baseline ABPM and 20-year ...[more]

PMID: 26837643

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Project description:BackgroundIncreased or decreased blood pressure variability may affect the perfusion of tissues and organs, leading to acute kidney injury and death. This study was conducted to explore the relationship between mean arterial pressure variability and short- and long-term mortality in critically ill patients.MethodsWe used patient data from the MIMIC-III database for cohort study. According to the recorded mean arterial pressure during the first 24 h in the intensive care unit, we calculated each patient's two variability parameters -coefficient of variation and average real variability. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality and the secondary outcomes were 28-day mortality and 1-year mortality. We conducted smooth spline models to examine the possible nonlinear associations between blood pressure variability and mortality. According to the smoothing curve, we further developed a two-piecewise linear regression model to find out the threshold effect. Multivariable logistic regression or Cox proportional hazards model was used to evaluate the relationship. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis for 28-day and 1-year mortality was performed. Subgroup analysis explored the factors modifying the relationship between them.ResultsA total of 12,867 patients were enrolled in the study, 1,320 in-hospital death, 1,399 28-day death, and 2,734 1-year death occurred. The smooth spline showed death risk was the lowest when average real variability was around 7.2 mmHg. After adjusting for covariates, logistic or Cox regression showed the highest MAP variability level was strongly associated with increased mortality in the hospital (odds ratio: 1.44; 95% CI, 1.21∼1.72), at 28 days (hazard ratio: 1.28; 95% CI, 1.1∼1.5), and at 1 year (hazard ratio: 1.27; 95% CI, 1.14∼1.42) compared with the second level of average real variability group. The survival curve plot showed patients with higher average real variability had a higher risk of 28-day and 1-year mortality. This relationship remained remarkable in patients with low or high Sequential Organ Failure Assessment scores in the sensitivity analysis. The two-piecewise linear regression model showed that lower ARV was a risk factor for 28-day (HR 0.72, 95% CI, 0.57∼0.91) and 1-year mortality (HR 0.81, 95% CI, 0.68∼0.96) when ARV was less than 7.2 mmHg, higher ARV was a risk factor for 28-day mortality (HR 1.1, 95% CI, 1.04∼1.17) and 1-year mortality (HR 1.07, 95% CI, 1.02∼1.12) when ARV was greater than 7.2 mmHg.ConclusionBlood pressure variability predicts mortality in critically ill patients. Individuals with higher or lower mean arterial pressure average real variability during the first day in ICU may have an increased risk of death.

Dataset Information

High Short-Term Blood Pressure Variability Predicts Long-Term Cardiovascular Mortality in Untreated Hypertensives But Not in Normotensives.

Publications

High Short-Term Blood Pressure Variability Predicts Long-Term Cardiovascular Mortality in Untreated Hypertensives But Not in Normotensives.

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