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Problems encountered when defining Arctic amplification as a ratio.

ABSTRACT: In climate change science the term 'Arctic amplification' has become synonymous with an estimation of the ratio of a change in Arctic temperatures compared with a broader reference change under the same period, usually in global temperatures. Here, it is shown that this definition of Arctic amplification comes with a suite of difficulties related to the statistical properties of the ratio estimator itself. Most problematic is the complexity of categorizing uncertainty in Arctic amplification when the global, or reference, change in temperature is close to 0 over a period of interest, in which case it may be impossible to set bounds on this uncertainty. An important conceptual distinction is made between the 'Ratio of Means' and 'Mean Ratio' approaches to defining a ratio estimate of Arctic amplification, as they do not only possess different uncertainty properties regarding the amplification factor, but are also demonstrated to ask different scientific questions. Uncertainty in the estimated range of the Arctic amplification factor using the latest global climate models and climate forcing scenarios is expanded upon and shown to be greater than previously demonstrated for future climate projections, particularly using forcing scenarios with lower concentrations of greenhouse gases.

SUBMITTER: Hind A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4962034 | biostudies-other | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Problems encountered when defining Arctic amplification as a ratio.

Hind Alistair A Zhang Qiong Q Brattström Gudrun G

Scientific reports 20160727

In climate change science the term 'Arctic amplification' has become synonymous with an estimation of the ratio of a change in Arctic temperatures compared with a broader reference change under the same period, usually in global temperatures. Here, it is shown that this definition of Arctic amplification comes with a suite of difficulties related to the statistical properties of the ratio estimator itself. Most problematic is the complexity of categorizing uncertainty in Arctic amplification whe ...[more]

PMID: 27461918

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Project description:Medicine is a profession that carries certain risks. One risky area of practice is the emergency department. Emergency physicians diagnose and treat a high volume of patients, and are also responsible for preparing reports for forensic cases. In this study, we aim to investigate emergency physicians' legal-administrative problems and reveal their level of understanding on forensic cases.An electronic questionnaire form was prepared after the approval of an ethical committee. This form was sent to the residents, specialists and academicians of emergency medicine by e-mail. The physicians were asked to fill out the form online. All the gathered data was analyzed. Descriptive statistics were presented as frequency percentages with mean and standard deviation. Chi-square tests were used to compare the groups. Correlation between number of complaint cases and age, sex, career, institution, and duration of service in emergency department were investigated. p<0.05 was considered statistically significant.294 physicians participated in the questionnaire. According to the questionnaire, 170 of the physicians were reported to the patient communication units due to medical malpractice. Mean number of compliant reports was 3.20±3.5. 29 of the physicians received administrative penalties. 42 of the physicians were judged in the court for medical malpractice. 1 physician was fined 5000 Turkish Liras as a result of these judgments.We found that the number of complaint reports is negatively correlated with duration of service in emergency medicine and age. There was a significant difference between number of complaint reports and career (p<0.05). The physicians' level of awareness on forensic cases was found to be insufficient. Lack of legislation knowledge may be an important cause of complaint reports concerning emergency physicians, who have a high load of patients. Thus, we think that increasing the frequency of post-graduate education sessions and periodical reviews might be beneficial.

Project description:OBJECTIVE:Adequate resources are required to rapidly diagnose and treat pediatric musculoskeletal infection (MSKI). The workload MSKI consults contribute to pediatric orthopaedic services is unknown as prior epidemiologic studies are variable and negative work-ups are not included in national discharge databases. The hypothesis was tested that MSKI consults constitute a substantial volume of total consultations for pediatric orthopaedic services across the United States. STUDY DESIGN:Eighteen institutions from the Children's ORthopaedic Trauma and Infection Consortium for Evidence-based Study (CORTICES) group retrospectively reviewed a minimum of 1 year of hospital data, reporting the total number of surgeons, total consultations, and MSKI-related consultations. Consultations were classified by the location of consultation (emergency department or inpatient). Culture positivity rate and pathogens were also reported. RESULTS:87,449 total orthopaedic consultations and 7,814 MSKI-related consultations performed by 229 pediatric orthopaedic surgeons were reviewed. There was an average of 13 orthopaedic surgeons per site each performing an average of 154 consultations per year. On average, 9% of consultations were MSKI related and 37% of these consults yielded positive cultures. Finally, a weak inverse monotonic relationship was noted between percent culture positivity and percent of total orthopedic consults for MSKI. CONCLUSION:At large, academic pediatric tertiary care centers, pediatric orthopaedic services consult on an average of ~3,000 'rule-out' MSKI cases annually. These patients account for nearly 1 in 10 orthopaedic consultations, of which 1 in 3 are culture positive. Considering that 2 in 3 consultations were culture negative, estimating resources required for pediatric orthopaedic consult services to work up and treat children based on culture positive administrative discharge data underestimates clinical need. Finally, ascertainment bias must be considered when comparing differences in culture rates from different institution's pediatric orthopaedics services, given the variability in when orthopaedic physicians become involved in a MSKI workup.

Project description:BACKGROUND: Blocks of duplicated genomic DNA sequence longer than 1000 base pairs are known as low copy repeats (LCRs). Identified by their sequence similarity, LCRs are abundant in the human genome, and are interesting because they may represent recent adaptive events, or potential future adaptive opportunities within the human lineage. Sequence analysis tools are needed, however, to decide whether these interpretations are likely, whether a particular set of LCRs represents nearly neutral drift creating junk DNA, or whether the appearance of LCRs reflects assembly error. Here we investigate an LCR family containing the sulfotransferase (SULT) 1A genes involved in drug metabolism, cancer, hormone regulation, and neurotransmitter biology as a first step for defining the problems that those tools must manage. RESULTS: Sequence analysis here identified a fourth sulfotransferase gene, which may be transcriptionally active, located on human chromosome 16. Four regions of genomic sequence containing the four human SULT1A paralogs defined a new LCR family. The stem hominoid SULT1A progenitor locus was identified by comparative genomics involving complete human and rodent genomes, and a draft chimpanzee genome. SULT1A expansion in hominoid genomes was followed by positive selection acting on specific protein sites. This episode of adaptive evolution appears to be responsible for the dopamine sulfonation function of some SULT enzymes. Each of the conclusions that this bioinformatic analysis generated using data that has uncertain reliability (such as that from the chimpanzee genome sequencing project) has been confirmed experimentally or by a "finished" chromosome 16 assembly, both of which were published after the submission of this manuscript. CONCLUSION: SULT1A genes expanded from one to four copies in hominoids during intra-chromosomal LCR duplications, including (apparently) one after the divergence of chimpanzees and humans. Thus, LCRs may provide a means for amplifying genes (and other genetic elements) that are adaptively useful. Being located on and among LCRs, however, could make the human SULT1A genes susceptible to further duplications or deletions resulting in 'genomic diseases' for some individuals. Pharmacogenomic studies of SULT1Asingle nucleotide polymorphisms, therefore, should also consider examining SULT1A copy number variability when searching for genotype-phenotype associations. The latest duplication is, however, only a substantiated hypothesis; an alternative explanation, disfavored by the majority of evidence, is that the duplication is an artifact of incorrect genome assembly.

Dataset Information

Problems encountered when defining Arctic amplification as a ratio.

Publications

Problems encountered when defining Arctic amplification as a ratio.

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