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Prognostic significance of APACHE II score and plasma suPAR in Chinese patients with sepsis: a prospective observational study.

ABSTRACT: Timely risk stratification is the key strategy to improve prognosis of patients with sepsis. Previous study has proposed to develop a powerful risk assessment rule by the combination of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score and plasma soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR). That reaffirmation of suPAR as a prognostic marker in Chinese patients with severe sepsis is the aim of the study.A total of 137 consecutive Chinese patients with sepsis were enrolled in a prospective study cohort. Demographic and clinical characteristics, conventional risk factors and important laboratory data were prospectively recorded. Sequential plasma suPAR concentrations were measured by an enzymeimmunoabsorbent assay on days 1, 3, and 7 after admission to the intensive care unit (ICU). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and Cox regression analysis were used to examine the performance of suPAR in developing a rule for risk stratification.The results showed that plasma suPAR concentrations remained relatively stable within survivors and non-survivors during the first week of disease course. Regression analysis indicated that APACHE II ≥15 and suPAR ≥10.82 ng/mL were independently associated with unfavorable outcome. With the above cutoffs of APACHE II and suPAR, strata of disease severity were determined. The mortality of each stratum differed significantly from the others.Combination of APACHE II score and suPAR may supply the powerful prognostic utility for the mortality of sepsis.

SUBMITTER: Liu X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4966698 | biostudies-other | 2016 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Project description:ObjectiveThis study aims to evaluate the accuracy of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score on different days in predicting the mortality of critically ill patients to identify the best time point for the APACHE II score.MethodsThe demographic and clinical data are retrieved from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-IV dataset. APACHE II scores on days 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 14, and 28 of hospitalization are calculated, and their performance is evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) analysis. The cut-off for defining the high risk of mortality is determined using Youden's index. The APACHE II score on day 3 is the best time point to predict hospital mortality of ICU patients. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test is then applied to evaluate the calibration of the day 3 APACHE II score.ResultsWe recruited 6,374 eligible subjects from the MIMIC-IV database. Day 3 is the optimal time point for obtaining the APACHE II score to predict the hospital mortality of patients. The best cut-off for day 3 APACHE II score is 17. When APACHE II score ≥17, the sensitivity for the non-survivors and survivors is 92.8 and 82.2%, respectively, and the positive predictive value (PPV) is 23.1%. When APACHE II socre <17, the specificity for non-survivors and survivors is 90.1 and 80.2%, respectively, and the negative predictive value (NPV) is 87.8%. When day-3 APACHE II is used to predict the hospital mortality, the AUROC is 0.743 (P <0.001). In the ≥17 group, the sensitivity of non-survivors and survivors is 92.2 and 81.3%, respectively, and the PPV is 30.3%. In the <17 group, the specificity of non-survivors and survivors is 100.0 and 80.2%, respectively, and the NPV is 81.6%. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated day-3 APACHE II has a high predicting the hospital mortality (X 2 = 6.198, P = 0.625, consistency = 79.4%). However, the day-1 APACHE II has a poor calibration in predicting the hospital mortality rate (X 2 = 294.898, P <0.001).ConclusionDay-3 APACHE II score is an optimal biomarker to predict the outcomes of ICU patients; 17 is the best cut-off for defining patients at high risk of mortality.

Project description:Background:Sepsis is a global threat but insufficiently studied in Southeast Asia. The objective was to evaluate management, outcomes, adherence to sepsis bundles, and mortality prediction of maximum Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores in patients with community-acquired sepsis in Southeast Asia. Methods:We prospectively recruited hospitalized adults within 24 h of admission with community-acquired infection at nine public hospitals in Indonesia (n?=?3), Thailand (n?=?3), and Vietnam (n?=?3). In patients with organ dysfunction (total SOFA score ??2), we analyzed sepsis management and outcomes and evaluated mortality prediction of the SOFA scores. Organ failure was defined as the maximum SOFA score ??3 for an individual organ system. Results:From December 2013 to December 2015, 454 adult patients presenting with community-acquired sepsis due to diverse etiologies were enrolled. Compliance with sepsis bundles within 24 h of admission was low: broad-spectrum antibiotics in 76% (344/454), ??1500 mL fluid in 50% of patients with hypotension or lactate ??4 mmol/L (115/231), and adrenergic agents in 71% of patients with hypotension (135/191). Three hundred and fifty-five patients (78%) were managed outside of ICUs. Ninety-nine patients (22%) died. Total SOFA score on admission of those who subsequently died was significantly higher than that of those who survived (6.7 vs. 4.6, p?<?0.001). The number of organ failures showed a significant correlation with 28-day mortality, which ranged from 7% in patients without any organ failure to 47% in those with failure of at least four organs (p?<?0.001). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the total SOFA score for discrimination of mortality was 0.68 (95% CI 0.62-0.74). Conclusions:Community-acquired sepsis in Southeast Asia due to a variety of pathogens is usually managed outside the ICU and with poor compliance to sepsis bundles. In this population, calculation of SOFA scores is feasible and SOFA scores are associated with mortality. Trial registration:ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02157259. Registered 5 June 2014, retrospectively registered.

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Prognostic significance of APACHE II score and plasma suPAR in Chinese patients with sepsis: a prospective observational study.

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