Dataset Information

Projecting the COPD population and costs in England and Scotland: 2011 to 2030.

ABSTRACT: We aimed to estimate the prevalence, healthcare costs and number of deaths among people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in England and Scotland 2011-2030. We adapted the Dutch COPD Model by using English and Scottish demographic, COPD incidence, COPD prevalence, smoking prevalence and mortality data to make projections. In England, the prevalence of COPD was estimated to be 1.79% (95% uncertainty interval 1.77-1.81) in 2011, increasing to 2.19% (1.85-2.33) by 2030. In Scotland, prevalence was 2.03% (1.96-2.10) in 2011 increasing to 2.20% (1.98-2.40) in 2030. These increases were driven by more women developing COPD. Annual direct healthcare costs of COPD in England were estimated to increase from £1.50 billon (1.18-2.50) in 2011 to £2.32 (1.85-3.08) billion in 2030. In Scotland, costs increased from £159?million (128-268) in 2011 to £207 (165-274) million in 2030. The deaths in England were estimated to increase from 99,200 (92,500-128,500) in 2011, to 129,400 (126,400-133,400) by 2030. In Scotland, in 2011 there were 9,700 (9,000-12,300) deaths and 13,900 (13,400-14,500) deaths in 2030. The number of people with COPD will increase substantially over the coming years in England and Scotland, particularly in females. Services need to adapt to this increasing demand.

SUBMITTER: McLean S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5008118 | biostudies-other | 2016 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Projecting the COPD population and costs in England and Scotland: 2011 to 2030.

McLean Susannah S Hoogendoorn Martine M Hoogenveen Rudolf T RT Feenstra Talitha L TL Wild Sarah S Simpson Colin R CR Mölken Maureen Rutten-van MR Sheikh Aziz A

Scientific reports 20160901

We aimed to estimate the prevalence, healthcare costs and number of deaths among people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in England and Scotland 2011-2030. We adapted the Dutch COPD Model by using English and Scottish demographic, COPD incidence, COPD prevalence, smoking prevalence and mortality data to make projections. In England, the prevalence of COPD was estimated to be 1.79% (95% uncertainty interval 1.77-1.81) in 2011, increasing to 2.19% (1.85-2.33) by 2030. In Scotland, ...[more]

PMID: 27583987

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Project description:UnlabelledBackgroundThis study forecasts physician supply between 2012 and 2030 using cohort analysis, based on future production capacity and losses from the profession, and assesses if, and by when, the projected numbers of physicians would meet the targets of one doctor per 1,500 population, as proposed by the 7th National Conference on Medical Education in 2001, and one per 1,800, proposed by the Ministry of Public Health (MoPH) in 2004.MethodsWe estimated the annual loss rate that best reflected the dynamics of existing practising doctors, then applied this rate to the existing physicians, plus the newly licensed physicians flowing into the pool over the next two decades (from 2012 to 2030). Finally, the remaining practising physicians, after adjustment for losses, were verified against demand projections in order to identify supply gaps.ResultsThailand has been experiencing an expansion in the total number of physicians, with an annual loss rate of 1%. Considering future plans for admission of medical students, the number of licensed physicians flowing into the pool should reach 2,592 per annum, and 2,661 per annum, by 2019 and 2030 respectively. By applying the 1% loss rate to the existing, and future newly licensed, physicians, there are forecast to be around 40,000 physicians in active clinical service by 2016, and in excess of 60,000 by 2028.ConclusionThis supply forecast, given various assumptions, would meet the targets outlined above, of one doctor per 1,800 population, and one per 1,500 population, by 2016 and 2020 respectively. However, rapid changes in the contextual environment, e.g. economic demand, physician demographics, and disease burden, may mean that the annual loss rate of 1% used in this projection is not accurate in the future. To ensure population health needs are met, parallel policies on physician production encompassing both qualitative and quantitative aspects should be in place. Improved, up-to-date information and establishment of a physician cohort study are recommended.

Project description:BackgroundHealth professionals, policy-makers and researchers need to be able to explore potential associations between prevalence rates and quality of care with a range of possible determinants including socio-economic deprivation and morbidity levels to determine the impact of commissioning and service delivery. In the UK, data in England are only available nationally at practice postcode level. In Scotland, such data are available based on an aggregate of the practices population's postcodes. The use of data assigned to the practice postcode may underestimate the association between ill health and income deprivation. Here, we report on the impact of using data assigned to the practice population by comparing analyses using English and Scottish data.ResultsIncome deprivation based on data assigned to the practice postcode under-estimated deprivation compared to using income deprivation data assigned to the practice population for the five least deprived deciles, and over-estimated deprivation for the five most deprived deciles. The biggest differences were found for the most deprived decile. A similar trend was found for limiting long-term illness (LLTI). Differences between the QOF prevalence rates of the least and most deprived deciles using practice postcode data were similar (0.2% points or less) in England and Scotland for 8 out of 10 clinical domains. Using practice population assigned deprivation, differences in the prevalence rate between the least and most deprived deciles increase for all clinical domains. A similar trend was again found for LLTI. Using practice population assigned deprivation, differences for population achievement increase for all CHD quality indicators with the exception of beta-blockers (CHD10). With practice postcode assigned deprivation, significant differences between the least and most deprived deciles were found for 2 out 8 indicators, compared to 5 using practice population assigned deprivation. For LLTI differences between the lowest and most deprived deciles increased for all indicators when ill health assigned to the practice population was used.ConclusionWe have found, through comparing deprivation and ill health data assigned to either the practice postcode or the practice population postcode in Scotland, that analyses based on practice postcode assigned data under-estimated the relationship between deprivation and ill health for both prevalence and quality care. Given the importance of understanding the effect of deprivation and ill health on a range of determinants related to health care, policy makers should ensure that practice population data are available and used at national level in England and elsewhere where possible.

Dataset Information

Projecting the COPD population and costs in England and Scotland: 2011 to 2030.

Publications

Projecting the COPD population and costs in England and Scotland: 2011 to 2030.

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