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Long term cause specific mortality among 34?489 five year survivors of childhood cancer in Great Britain: population based cohort study.

ABSTRACT: To determine whether modern treatments for cancer are associated with a net increased or decreased risk of death from neoplastic and non-neoplastic causes among survivors of childhood cancer. Population based cohort study. British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study. Nationwide population based cohort of 34?489 five year survivors of childhood cancer with a diagnosis from 1940 to 2006 and followed up until 28 February 2014. Cause specific standardised mortality ratios and absolute excess risks are reported. Multivariable Poisson regression models were utilised to evaluate the simultaneous effect of risk factors. Likelihood ratio tests were used to test for heterogeneity or trend. Overall, 4475 deaths were observed, which was 9.1 (95% confidence interval 8.9 to 9.4) times that expected in the general population, corresponding to 64.2 (95% confidence interval 62.1 to 66.3) excess deaths per 10?000 person years. The number of excess deaths from all causes declined among those treated more recently; those treated during 1990-2006 experienced 30% of the excess number of deaths experienced by those treated before 1970. The corresponding percentages for the decline in excess deaths from recurrence or progression and non-neoplastic causes were 30% and 60%, respectively. Among survivors aged 50-59 years, 41% and 22% of excess deaths were attributable to subsequent primary neoplasms and circulatory conditions, respectively, whereas the corresponding percentages among those aged 60 years or more were 31% and 37%. The net effects of changes in cancer treatments, and surveillance and management for late effects, over the period 1940 to 2006 was to reduce the excess number of deaths from both recurrence or progression and non-neoplastic causes among those treated more recently. Among survivors aged 60 years or more, the excess number of deaths from circulatory causes exceeds the excess number of deaths from subsequent primary neoplasms. The important message for the evidence based surveillance aimed at preventing excess mortality and morbidity in survivors aged 60 years or more is that circulatory disease overtakes subsequent primary neoplasms as the leading cause of excess mortality.

SUBMITTER: Fidler MM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5008696 | biostudies-other | 2016 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Long term cause specific mortality among 34 489 five year survivors of childhood cancer in Great Britain: population based cohort study.

Fidler Miranda M MM Reulen Raoul C RC Winter David L DL Kelly Julie J Jenkinson Helen C HC Skinner Rod R Frobisher Clare C Hawkins Michael M MM

BMJ (Clinical research ed.) 20160901

<h4>Objective</h4> To determine whether modern treatments for cancer are associated with a net increased or decreased risk of death from neoplastic and non-neoplastic causes among survivors of childhood cancer.<h4>Design</h4> Population based cohort study.<h4>Setting</h4> British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study.<h4>Participants</h4> Nationwide population based cohort of 34 489 five year survivors of childhood cancer with a diagnosis from 1940 to 2006 and followed up until 28 February 2014.<h4>Ma ...[more]

PMID: 27586237

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Project description:Increased risks of cardiac morbidity and mortality among childhood cancer survivors have been described previously. However, little is known about the very long-term risks of cardiac mortality and whether the risk has decreased among those more recently diagnosed. We investigated the risk of long-term cardiac mortality among survivors within the recently extended British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study.The British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study is a population-based cohort of 34?489 five-year survivors of childhood cancer diagnosed from 1940 to 2006 and followed up until February 28, 2014, and is the largest cohort to date to assess late cardiac mortality. Standardized mortality ratios and absolute excess risks were used to quantify cardiac mortality excess risk. Multivariable Poisson regression models were used to evaluate the simultaneous effect of risk factors. Likelihood ratio tests were used to test for heterogeneity and trends.Overall, 181 cardiac deaths were observed, which was 3.4 times that expected. Survivors were 2.5 times and 5.9 times more at risk of ischemic heart disease and cardiomyopathy/heart failure death, respectively, than expected. Among those >60 years of age, subsequent primary neoplasms, cardiac disease, and other circulatory conditions accounted for 31%, 22%, and 15% of all excess deaths, respectively, providing clear focus for preventive interventions. The risk of both overall cardiac and cardiomyopathy/heart failure mortality was greatest among those diagnosed from 1980 to 1989. Specifically, for cardiomyopathy/heart failure deaths, survivors diagnosed from 1980 to 1989 had 28.9 times the excess number of deaths observed for survivors diagnosed either before 1970 or from 1990 on.Excess cardiac mortality among 5-year survivors of childhood cancer remains increased beyond 50 years of age and has clear messages in terms of prevention strategies. However, the fact that the risk was greatest in those diagnosed from 1980 to 1989 suggests that initiatives to reduce cardiotoxicity among those treated more recently may be having a measurable impact.

Project description:BackgroundThe proportion of pediatric and adolescent cancer patients surviving 5 years has increased during the past four decades. This growing population of survivors remains at risk for disease- and treatment-associated late mortality.MethodsA total of 20 483 five-year survivors of childhood and adolescent cancer diagnosed between January 1, 1970, and December 31, 1986, and enrolled in the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS) were included in a National Death Index search for deaths occurring between January 1, 1979, and December 31, 2002. Treatment information was abstracted from primary medical records. Survival probabilities, standardized mortality ratios (SMRs), and absolute excess risks were calculated for overall and cause-specific deaths. Diagnosis- and sex-specific survival probabilities were estimated by the product-limit method. All statistical tests were two-sided.ResultsAmong the CCSS cohort, 2821 (13.8%) 5-year survivors had died by the end of the follow-up period. The cause of death was obtained for 2534 individuals, with 57.5% of deaths attributed to recurrent disease. Estimated probability of survival 30 years from diagnosis was 82%. When compared with the US population, the absolute excess risk of death from any cause was 7.36 deaths per 1000 person-years. The overall SMR was 8.4 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 8.0 to 8.7). Increases in cause-specific mortality were seen for deaths due to subsequent malignancy (SMR = 15.2, 95% CI = 13.9 to 16.6) and cardiac (SMR = 7.0, 95% CI = 5.9 to 8.2), pulmonary (SMR = 8.8, 95% CI = 6.8 to 11.2), and other medical (SMR = 2.6, 95% CI = 2.3 to 3.0) causes. At 20 years of follow-up (25 years after first cancer diagnosis), the death rate due to a subsequent malignancy exceeded that due to all other causes.ConclusionOur extended follow-up of 5-year survivors of pediatric and adolescent cancer indicates that excess mortality persists long after diagnosis. Continued observation is needed to further define lifetime risk and to determine the potential contribution of chronic health conditions and modifiable health behaviors.

Project description:Among patients in whom childhood cancer was diagnosed in the 1970s and 1980s, 18% of those who survived for 5 years died within the subsequent 25 years. In recent decades, cancer treatments have been modified with the goal of reducing life-threatening late effects.We evaluated late mortality among 34,033 patients in the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study cohort who survived at least 5 years after childhood cancer (i.e., cancer diagnosed before the age of 21 years) for which treatment was initiated during the period from 1970 through 1999. The median follow-up was 21 years (range, 5 to 38). We evaluated demographic and disease factors that were associated with death from health-related causes (i.e., conditions that exclude recurrence or progression of the original cancer and external causes but include the late effects of cancer therapy) using cumulative incidence and piecewise exponential models to estimate relative rates and 95% confidence intervals.Of the 3958 deaths that occurred during the study period, 1618 (41%) were attributable to health-related causes, including 746 deaths from subsequent neoplasms, 241 from cardiac causes, 137 from pulmonary causes, and 494 from other causes. A reduction in 15-year mortality was observed for death from any cause (from 12.4% in the early 1970s to 6.0% in the 1990s, P<0.001 for trend) and from health-related causes (from 3.5% to 2.1%, P<0.001 for trend). These reductions were attributable to decreases in the rates of death from subsequent neoplasm (P<0.001), cardiac causes (P<0.001), and pulmonary causes (P=0.04). Changes in therapy according to decade included reduced rates of cranial radiotherapy for acute lymphoblastic leukemia (85% in the 1970s, 51% in the 1980s, and 19% in the 1990s), of abdominal radiotherapy for Wilms' tumor (78%, 53%, and 43%, respectively), of chest radiotherapy for Hodgkin's lymphoma (87%, 79%, and 61%, respectively), and of anthracycline exposure. Reduction in treatment exposure was associated with reduced late mortality among survivors of acute lymphoblastic leukemia and Wilms' tumor.The strategy of lowering therapeutic exposure has contributed to an observed decline in late mortality among 5-year survivors of childhood cancer. (Funded by the National Cancer Institute and the American Lebanese-Syrian Associated Charities.).

Project description:Background:Childhood cancer survivors are at risk of subsequent primary soft-tissue sarcomas (STS), but the risks of specific STS histological subtypes are unknown. We quantified the risk of STS histological subtypes after specific types of childhood cancer. Methods:We pooled data from 13 European cohorts, yielding a cohort of 69 460 five-year survivors of childhood cancer. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and absolute excess risks (AERs) were calculated. Results:Overall, 301 STS developed compared with 19 expected (SIR = 15.7, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 14.0 to 17.6). The highest standardized incidence ratios were for malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumors (MPNST; SIR = 40.6, 95% CI = 29.6 to 54.3), leiomyosarcomas (SIR = 29.9, 95% CI = 23.7 to 37.2), and fibromatous neoplasms (SIR = 12.3, 95% CI = 9.3 to 16.0). SIRs for MPNST were highest following central nervous system tumors (SIR = 80.5, 95% CI = 48.4 to 125.7), Hodgkin lymphoma (SIR = 81.3, 95% CI = 35.1 to 160.1), and Wilms tumor (SIR = 76.0, 95% CI = 27.9 to 165.4). Standardized incidence ratios for leiomyosarcoma were highest following retinoblastoma (SIR = 342.9, 95% CI = 245.0 to 466.9) and Wilms tumor (SIR = 74.2, 95% CI = 37.1 to 132.8). AERs for all STS subtypes were generally low at all years from diagnosis (AER < 1 per 10 000 person-years), except for leiomyosarcoma following retinoblastoma, for which the AER reached 52.7 (95% CI = 20.0 to 85.5) per 10 000 person-years among patients who had survived at least 45 years from diagnosis of retinoblastoma. Conclusions:For the first time, we provide risk estimates of specific STS subtypes following childhood cancers and give evidence that risks of MPNSTs, leiomyosarcomas, and fibromatous neoplasms are particularly increased. While the multiplicative excess risks relative to the general population are substantial, the absolute excess risk of developing any STS subtype is low, except for leiomyosarcoma after retinoblastoma. These results are likely to be informative for both survivors and health care providers.

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Long term cause specific mortality among 34?489 five year survivors of childhood cancer in Great Britain: population based cohort study.

Publications

Long term cause specific mortality among 34 489 five year survivors of childhood cancer in Great Britain: population based cohort study.

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