Dataset Information

Baseline Prostate-Specific Antigen Levels in Midlife Predict Lethal Prostate Cancer.

ABSTRACT: Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level in midlife predicted future prostate cancer (PCa) mortality in an unscreened Swedish population. Our purpose was to determine if a baseline PSA level during midlife predicts lethal PCa in a US population with opportunistic screening.We conducted a nested case-control study among men age 40 to 59 years who gave blood before random assignment in the Physicians' Health Study, a randomized, placebo-controlled trial of aspirin and ?-carotene among 22,071 US male physicians initiated in 1982 and then transitioned into a prospective cohort with 30 years of follow-up. Baseline PSA levels were available for 234 patients with PCa and 711 age-matched controls. Seventy-one participants who developed lethal PCa were rematched to 213 controls. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, with 95% CIs, of the association between baseline PSA and risk of lethal PCa.Median PSA among controls was 0.68, 0.88, and 0.96 ng/mL for men age 40 to 49, 50 to 54, and 55 to 59 years, respectively. Risk of lethal PCa was strongly associated with baseline PSA in midlife: odds ratios (95% CIs) comparing PSA in the > 90th percentile versus less than or equal to median were 8.7 (1.0 to 78.2) at 40 to 49 years, 12.6 (1.4 to 110.4) at 50 to 54 years, and 6.9 (2.5 to 19.1) at 55 to 59 years. A total of 82%, 71%, and 86% of lethal cases occurred in men with PSA above the median at ages 40 to 49, 50 to 54, and 55 to 59 years, respectively.PSA levels in midlife strongly predict future lethal PCa in a US cohort subject to opportunistic screening. Risk-stratified screening on the basis of midlife PSA should be considered in men age 45 to 59 years.

SUBMITTER: Preston MA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5019757 | biostudies-other | 2016 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Baseline Prostate-Specific Antigen Levels in Midlife Predict Lethal Prostate Cancer.

Preston Mark A MA Batista Julie L JL Wilson Kathryn M KM Carlsson Sigrid V SV Gerke Travis T Sjoberg Daniel D DD Dahl Douglas M DM Sesso Howard D HD Feldman Adam S AS Gann Peter H PH Kibel Adam S AS Vickers Andrew J AJ Mucci Lorelei A LA

Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology 20160613 23

<h4>Purpose</h4>Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level in midlife predicted future prostate cancer (PCa) mortality in an unscreened Swedish population. Our purpose was to determine if a baseline PSA level during midlife predicts lethal PCa in a US population with opportunistic screening.<h4>Materials and methods</h4>We conducted a nested case-control study among men age 40 to 59 years who gave blood before random assignment in the Physicians' Health Study, a randomized, placebo-controlled trial o ...[more]

PMID: 27298404

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) measurement in midlife predicts long-term prostate cancer (PCa) mortality among white men. OBJECTIVE:To determine whether baseline PSA level during midlife predicts risk of aggressive PCa in black men. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS:Nested case-control study among black men in the Southern Community Cohort Study recruited between 2002 and 2009. A prospective cohort in the southeastern USA with recruitment from community health centers. A total of 197 incident PCa patients aged 40-64 yr at study entry and 569 controls matched on age, date of blood draw, and site of enrollment. Total PSA was measured in blood collected and stored at enrollment. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:Total and aggressive PCa (91 aggressive: Gleason ?7, American Joint Committee on Cancer stage III/IV, or PCa-specific death). Exact conditional logistic regression estimated odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for PCa by category of baseline PSA. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS:Median PSA among controls was 0.72, 0.80, 0.94, and 1.03ng/ml for age groups 40-49, 50-54, 55-59, and 60-64 yr, respectively; 90th percentile levels were 1.68, 1.85, 2.73, and 3.33ng/ml. Furthermore, 95% of total and 97% of aggressive cases had baseline PSA above the age-specific median. Median follow-up was 9 yr. The OR for total PCa comparing PSA >90th percentile versus ?median was 83.6 (95% CI, 21.2-539) for 40-54 yr and 71.7 (95% CI, 23.3-288) for 55-64 yr. For aggressive cancer, ORs were 174 (95% CI, 32.3-infinity) for 40-54 yr and 51.8 (95% CI, 11.0-519) for 55-64 yr. A composite endpoint of aggressive PCa based on stage, grade, and mortality was used and is a limitation. CONCLUSIONS:PSA levels in midlife strongly predicted total and aggressive PCa among black men. PSA levels among controls were similar to those among white controls in prior studies. PATIENT SUMMARY:Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level during midlife strongly predicted future development of aggressive prostate cancer among black men. Targeted screening based on a midlife PSA might identify men at high risk while minimizing screening in those men at low risk.

Project description:BackgroundFor men on active surveillance for prostate cancer, utility of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) kinetics (PSAk) in predicting pathologic reclassification remains controversial.ObjectiveTo develop prediction methods for utilizing serial PSA and evaluate frequency of collection.Design, setting, and participantsData were collected from men enrolled in the multicenter Canary Prostate Active Surveillance Study, for whom PSA data were measured and biopsies performed on prespecified schedules. We developed a PSAk parameter based on a linear mixed-effect model (LMEM) that accounted for serial PSA levels.Outcome measurements and statistical analysisThe association of diagnostic PSA and/or PSAk with time to reclassification (increase in cancer grade and/or volume) was evaluated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models.Results and limitationsA total of 851 men met the study criteria; 255 (30%) had a reclassification event within 5 yr. Median follow-up was 3.7 yr. After adjusting for prostate size, time since diagnosis, biopsy parameters, and diagnostic PSA, PSAk was a significant predictor of reclassification (hazard ratio for each 0.10 increase in PSAk=1.6 [95% confidence interval 1.2-2.1, p<0.001]). The PSAk model improved stratification of risk prediction for the top and bottom deciles of risk over a model without PSAk. Model performance was essentially identical using PSA data measured every 6 mo to those measured every 3 mo. The major limitation is the reliability of reclassification as an end point, although it drives most treatment decisions.ConclusionsPSAk calculated using an LMEM statistically significantly predicts biopsy reclassification. Models that use repeat PSA measurements outperform a model incorporating only diagnostic PSA. Model performance is similar using PSA assessed every 3 or 6 mo. If validated, these results should inform optimal incorporation of PSA trends into active surveillance protocols and risk calculators.Patient summaryIn this report, we looked at whether repeat prostate-specific antigen (PSA) measurements, or PSA kinetics, improve prediction of biopsy outcomes in men using active surveillance to manage localized prostate cancer. We found that in a large multicenter active surveillance cohort, PSA kinetics improves the prediction of surveillance biopsy outcome.

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Baseline Prostate-Specific Antigen Levels in Midlife Predict Lethal Prostate Cancer.

Publications

Baseline Prostate-Specific Antigen Levels in Midlife Predict Lethal Prostate Cancer.

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