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Age and preexisting conditions as risk factors for severe adverse events and failure to rescue after injury.

ABSTRACT: Failure to rescue (FTR: the conditional probability of death after complication) has been studied in trauma cohorts, but the impact of age and preexisting conditions (PECs) on risk of FTR is not well known. We assessed the relationship between age and PECs on the risk of experiencing serious adverse events (SAEs) subsequent FTR in trauma patients with the hypothesis that increased comorbidity burden and age would be associated with increased FTR.We performed a retrospective cohort analysis at an urban level 1 trauma center in Pennsylvania. All patients aged ?16 y with minimum Abbreviated Injury Scale score ?2 from 2009 to 2013 were included. Univariate logistic regression models for SAE and FTR were developed using age, PECs, demographics, and injury physiology. Variables found to be associated with the end point of interest (P ? 0.2) in univariate analysis were included in separate multivariable logistic regression models for each outcome.SAE occurred in 1136 of 7533 (15.1 %) patients meeting inclusion criteria (median age 42 [interquartile range 26-59], 53% African-American, 72% male, 79% blunt, median ISS 10 [interquartile range 5-17]). Of those who experienced an SAE, 129 of 1136 patients subsequently died (FTR = 11.4%). Development of SAE and FTR was associated with age ? 70 y (odds ratio 1.58-1.78, 95% confidence interval 1.13-2.82). Renal disease was the only preexisting condition associated with both SAE and FTR.Trauma patients with renal disease are mostly at increased risk for both SAE and FTR, but other PECs associated with SAE are not necessarily those associated with FTR. Future interventions designed to reduce FTR events should target this high-risk cohort.

SUBMITTER: Earl-Royal E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5119648 | biostudies-other | 2016 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Age and preexisting conditions as risk factors for severe adverse events and failure to rescue after injury.

Earl-Royal Emily E Kaufman Elinore J EJ Hsu Jesse Y JY Wiebe Douglas J DJ Reilly Patrick M PM Holena Daniel N DN

The Journal of surgical research 20160705 2

<h4>Background</h4>Failure to rescue (FTR: the conditional probability of death after complication) has been studied in trauma cohorts, but the impact of age and preexisting conditions (PECs) on risk of FTR is not well known. We assessed the relationship between age and PECs on the risk of experiencing serious adverse events (SAEs) subsequent FTR in trauma patients with the hypothesis that increased comorbidity burden and age would be associated with increased FTR.<h4>Materials and methods</h4>W ...[more]

PMID: 27664885

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Project description:BackgroundDrug adverse events (AEs), or called adverse drug events (ADEs), are ranked one of the leading causes of mortality. The Ontology of Adverse Events (OAE) has been widely used for adverse event AE representation, standardization, and analysis. OAE-based ADE-specific ontologies, including ODNAE for drug-associated neuropathy-inducing AEs and OCVDAE for cardiovascular drug AEs, have also been developed and used. However, these ADE-specific ontologies do not consider the effects of other factors (e.g., age and drug-treated disease) on the outcomes of ADEs. With more ontological studies of ADEs, it is also critical to develop a general purpose ontology for representing ADEs for various types of drugs.ResultsOur survey of FDA drug package insert documents and other resources for 224 neuropathy-inducing drugs discovered that many drugs (e.g., sirolimus and linezolid) cause different AEs given patients' age or the diseases treated by the drugs. To logically represent the complex relations among drug, drug ingredient and mechanism of action, AE, age, disease, and other related factors, an ontology design pattern was developed and applied to generate a community-driven open-source Ontology of Drug Adverse Events (ODAE). The ODAE development follows the OBO Foundry ontology development principles (e.g., openness and collaboration). Built on a generalizable ODAE design pattern and extending the OAE and NDF-RT ontology, ODAE has represented various AEs associated with the over 200 neuropathy-inducing drugs given different age and disease conditions. ODAE is now deposited in the Ontobee for browsing and queries. As a demonstration of usage, a SPARQL query of the ODAE knowledge base was developed to identify all the drugs having the mechanisms of ion channel interactions, the diseases treated with the drugs, and AEs after the treatment in adult patients. AE-specific drug class effects were also explored using ODAE and SPARQL.ConclusionODAE provides a general representation of ADEs given different conditions and can be used for querying scientific questions. ODAE is also a robust knowledge base and platform for semantic and logic representation and study of ADEs of more drugs in the future.

Project description:BackgroundOpioids are a leading cause of adverse drug events in the hospital. Guidelines recommend that physicians assess the risks of opioids and discuss them with patients when considering opioid use. There are no studies examining patient- and prescribing-related risk factors for opioid-related adverse drug events (ORADEs) in hospitalized medical patients.ObjectiveTo identify independent risk factors for severe ORADEs in hospitalized medical patients.DesignRetrospective cohort study.PatientsMedical patients hospitalized at US, non-federal, and acute care facilities, with at least one pharmacy charge for an opioid during hospitalization. We excluded patients with metastatic malignancy, hospice, or palliative care billing codes.Main measuresWe used Cox proportional hazards modeling to identify risk factors for severe ORADEs, defined by a pharmacy charge for naloxone. Candidate risk factors were chosen a priori, based on clinical grounds and prior literature.Key resultsAmong 731,208 hospitalizations (median age 60, 56.5% female), a severe ORADE occurred in 2727 (0.4%). Independent risk factors included patient characteristics (advanced age, female gender), comorbidities (congestive heart failure, opioid abuse/dependence, non-opioid drug abuse/dependence, psychosis, depression, obstructive sleep apnea), organ failures on admission (respiratory failure, shock/hypotension, renal failure, hepatic failure, acidosis, and neurologic failure), medication co-administrations (antipsychotics and short-acting benzodiazepines), and characteristics of the opioid prescriptions themselves (total dose for the day, parenteral route of administration, and receipt of multiple types of opioids in a day). Although a risk prediction model derived from these factors performed well on stratified k-fold cross-validation (average c-statistics 0.68-0.71), the low incidence of the outcome limited the positive predictive value of the risk score.ConclusionsIn this national cohort of medical patients, we identified several risk factors for ORADEs that can be used to inform physician decision-making, conversations with patients about risk, and development and targeting of harm reduction strategies for at-risk populations.

Project description:BackgroundAcute kidney injury (AKI) survivors are at increased risk of major adverse kidney events (MAKEs), including chronic kidney disease (CKD), end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) and death. High-risk AKI patients may benefit from specialist follow-up, but factors associated with increased risk have not been reported.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective study of AKI patients admitted to a single centre between 2012 and 2016 who had a baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) >30 mL/min/1.73 m2 and were alive and independent of renal replacement therapy (RRT) at 30 days following discharge. AKI was identified using International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision codes and staged according to the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes criteria. Patients were excluded if they were kidney transplant recipients or if AKI was attributed to intrinsic kidney disease. We performed Cox regression models to examine MAKEs in the first year, defined as the composite of CKD (sustained 25% drop in eGFR), ESKD (requirement for chronic RRT or sustained eGFR <15 mL/min/1.73 m2) or death. We examined secondary outcomes (CKD, ESKD and death) using Cox and competing risk regression analyses.ResultsWe studied 2101 patients (mean ± SD age 69 ± 15 years, baseline eGFR 72 ± 23 mL/min/1.73 m2). Of these, 767 patients (37%) developed at least one MAKE (429 patients developed CKD, 21 patients developed ESKD, 375 patients died). MAKEs occurred more frequently with older age [hazard ratio (HR) 1.16 per decade, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.10-1.24], greater severity of AKI (Stage 2 HR 1.38, 95% CI 1.16-1.64; Stage 3 HR 1.62, 95% CI 1.31-2.01), higher serum creatinine at discharge (HR 1.04 per 10 µmol/L, 95% CI 1.03-1.06), chronic heart failure (HR 1.41, 95% CI 1.19-1.67), liver disease (HR 1.68, 95% CI 1.39-2.03) and malignancy (non-metastatic HR 1.44, 95% CI 1.14-1.82; metastatic HR 2.26, 95% CI 1.80-2.83). Traditional risk factors (e.g. diabetes and cardiovascular disease) had limited predictive value.ConclusionsMore than a third of AKI patients develop MAKEs within the first year. Clinical variables available at the time of discharge can help identify patients at increased risk of such events.

Project description:PurposeTo determine rates and risk factors associated with severe postoperative complications after cataract surgery and whether they have been changing over the past decade.DesignRetrospective longitudinal cohort study.ParticipantsA total of 221 594 Medicare beneficiaries who underwent cataract surgery during 1994-2006.MethodsBeneficiaries were stratified into 3 cohorts: those who underwent initial cataract surgery during 1994-1995, 1999-2000, or 2005-2006. One-year rates of postoperative severe adverse events (endophthalmitis, suprachoroidal hemorrhage, retinal detachment) were determined for each cohort. Cox regression analyses determined the hazard of developing severe adverse events for each cohort with adjustment for demographic factors, ocular and medical conditions, and surgeon case-mix.Main outcome measuresTime period rates of development of severe postoperative adverse events.ResultsAmong the 221 594 individuals who underwent cataract surgery, 0.5% (1086) had at least 1 severe postoperative complication. After adjustment for confounders, individuals who underwent cataract surgery during 1994-1995 had a 21% increased hazard of being diagnosed with a severe postoperative complication (hazard ratio [HR] 1.21; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05-1.41) relative to individuals who underwent cataract surgery during 2005-2006. Those who underwent cataract surgery during 1999-2000 had a 20% increased hazard of experiencing a severe complication (HR 1.20; 95% CI, 1.04-1.39) relative to the 2005-2006 cohort. Risk factors associated with severe adverse events include a prior diagnosis of proliferative diabetic retinopathy (HR 1.62; 95% CI, 1.07-2.45) and cataract surgery combined with another intraocular surgical procedure on the same day (HR 2.51; 95% CI, 2.07-3.04). Individuals receiving surgery by surgeons with the case-mix least prone to developing a severe adverse event (HR 0.52; 95% CI, 0.44-0.62) had a 48% reduced hazard of a severe adverse event relative to recipients of cataract surgery performed by surgeons with the case-mix most prone to developing such outcomes.ConclusionsRates of sight-threatening adverse events after cataract surgery declined during 1994-2006. Future efforts should be directed to identifying ways to reduce severe adverse events in high-risk groups.

Project description:ImportanceThe adverse effects from the long-term use of oral corticosteroids are known, but, to our knowledge, few studies have reported the risk of corticosteroid bursts, particularly among children.ObjectiveTo quantify the associations of corticosteroid bursts with severe adverse events, including gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding, sepsis, pneumonia, and glaucoma, in children.Design, setting, and participantsThis study used data derived from the National Health Insurance Research Database in Taiwan from January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2017, on children younger than 18 years of age and used a self-controlled case series design. Data were analyzed from January 1 to July 30, 2020.ExposureOral corticosteroid bursts (defined as oral corticosteroid use for ≤14 days).Main outcomes and measuresIncidence rates were calculated of 4 severe adverse events (GI bleeding, sepsis, pneumonia, and glaucoma) in children who did or did not receive corticosteroid bursts. Conditional fixed-effect Poisson regression was used to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) of severe adverse events within 5 to 30 days and 31 to 90 days after initiation of corticosteroid bursts.ResultsAmong 4 542 623 children, 23% (1 064 587; 544 268 boys [51.1%]; mean [SD] age, 9.7 [5.8] years) were prescribed a single corticosteroid burst. The most common indications were acute respiratory tract infections and allergic diseases. The incidence rate differences per 1000 person-years between children administered a single corticosteroid burst and those not prescribed corticosteroids were 0.60 (95% CI, 0.55-0.64) for GI bleeding, 0.03 (95% CI, 0.02-0.05) for sepsis, 9.35 (95% CI, 9.19-9.51) for pneumonia, and 0.01 (95% CI, 0.01-0.03) for glaucoma. The IRRs within 5 to 30 days after initiating corticosteroid bursts were 1.41 (95% CI, 1.27-1.57) for GI bleeding, 2.02 (95% CI, 1.55-2.64) for sepsis, 2.19 (95% CI, 2.13-2.25) for pneumonia, and 0.98 (95% CI, 0.85-1.13) for glaucoma; the IRRs within the subsequent 31 to 90 days were 1.10 (95% CI, 1.02-1.19) for GI bleeding, 1.08 (95% CI, 0.88-1.32) for sepsis, 1.09 (95% CI, 1.07-1.11) for pneumonia, and 0.95 (95% CI, 0.85-1.06) for glaucoma.Conclusions and relevanceThis study suggests that corticosteroid bursts, which are commonly prescribed for children with respiratory and allergic conditions, are associated with a 1.4- to 2.2-fold increased risk of GI bleeding, sepsis, and pneumonia within the first month after initiation of corticosteroid therapy that is attenuated during the subsequent 31 to 90 days.

Project description:Risk factors for major adverse events late after Fontan palliation are unknown. Prior studies have suggested ventricular function and morphology as important risk factors. The aim of this study is to (1) characterize the late major adverse event profile in adult Fontan patients and (2) identify additional risk factors that may contribute to adverse outcomes.A retrospective review of all adult patients >15 years post-Fontan seen at a tertiary academic center was conducted. Clinical, laboratory, cardiac data, and abdominal imaging were collected via chart review. Major adverse events (death, cardiac transplantation, or listing) were identified, and timing of events was plotted using Kaplan-Meier methods. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression was used to determine independent predictors of late-term events.A total of 123 adult Fontan patients were identified (mean time post-Fontan 22.4 years [±4.4]). Major adverse events occurred in 19/123 patients (15%). In this 15-year survivor cohort, transplant-free survival rates were 94.6%, 82.9%, and 59.8% at 20, 25, and 30 years postoperation, respectively. Modes of death were Fontan failure with preserved function (4), congestive heart failure with decreased function (2), sudden death (2), thromboembolic event (1), post-Fontan conversion (2), and posttransplant (2). No differences in adverse outcomes were found based on morphology of the systemic ventricle, Fontan type, or systolic ventricular function. On the other hand, features of portal hypertension (OR 19.0, CI 4.7-77.3, P?<?.0001), presence of a pacemaker (OR 13.4, CI 2.6-69.8, P?=?.002), and systemic oxygen desaturation (OR 0.86, CI 0.75-0.98, P?=?.02) were risk factors for major adverse events in the multivariate analysis.In adult Fontan patients surviving >15 years post-Fontan, portal hypertension, oxygen desaturation, and need for pacemaker were predictive of adverse events. Traditional measures may not predict late-term outcomes in adult survivors; further study of the liver's role in late outcomes is warranted.

Project description:IntroductionThe electrocardiogram (ECG) is often used to identify which hyperkalemic patients are at risk for adverse events. However, there is a paucity of evidence to support this practice. This study analyzes the association between specific hyperkalemic ECG abnormalities and the development of short-term adverse events in patients with severe hyperkalemia.MethodsWe collected records of all adult patients with potassium (K+) ?6.5 mEq/L in the hospital laboratory database from August 15, 2010, through January 30, 2015. A chart review identified patient demographics, concurrent laboratory values, ECG within one hour of K+ measurement, treatments and occurrence of adverse events within six hours of ECG. We defined adverse events as symptomatic bradycardia, ventricular tachycardia, ventricular fibrillation, cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) and/or death. Two emergency physicians blinded to study objective independently examined each ECG for rate, rhythm, peaked T wave, PR interval duration and QRS complex duration. Relative risk was calculated to determine the association between specific hyperkalemic ECG abnormalities and short-term adverse events.ResultsWe included a total of 188 patients with severe hyperkalemia in the final study group. Adverse events occurred within six hours in 28 patients (15%): symptomatic bradycardia (n=22), death (n=4), ventricular tachycardia (n=2) and CPR (n=2). All adverse events occurred prior to treatment with calcium and all but one occurred prior to K+-lowering intervention. All patients who had a short-term adverse event had a preceding ECG that demonstrated at least one hyperkalemic abnormality (100%, 95% confidence interval [CI] [85.7-100%]). An increased likelihood of short-term adverse event was found for hyperkalemic patients whose ECG demonstrated QRS prolongation (relative risk [RR] 4.74, 95% CI [2.01-11.15]), bradycardia (HR<50) (RR 12.29, 95%CI [6.69-22.57]), and/or junctional rhythm (RR 7.46, 95%CI 5.28-11.13). There was no statistically significant correlation between peaked T waves and short-term adverse events (RR 0.77, 95% CI [0.35-1.70]).ConclusionOur findings support the use of the ECG to risk stratify patients with severe hyperkalemia for short-term adverse events.

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Age and preexisting conditions as risk factors for severe adverse events and failure to rescue after injury.

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Age and preexisting conditions as risk factors for severe adverse events and failure to rescue after injury.

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