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Determining Cutoff Point of Ensemble Trees Based on Sample Size in Predicting Clinical Dose with DNA Microarray Data.

ABSTRACT: Background/Aim. Evaluating the success of dose prediction based on genetic or clinical data has substantially advanced recently. The aim of this study is to predict various clinical dose values from DNA gene expression datasets using data mining techniques. Materials and Methods. Eleven real gene expression datasets containing dose values were included. First, important genes for dose prediction were selected using iterative sure independence screening. Then, the performances of regression trees (RTs), support vector regression (SVR), RT bagging, SVR bagging, and RT boosting were examined. Results. The results demonstrated that a regression-based feature selection method substantially reduced the number of irrelevant genes from raw datasets. Overall, the best prediction performance in nine of 11 datasets was achieved using SVR; the second most accurate performance was provided using a gradient-boosting machine (GBM). Conclusion. Analysis of various dose values based on microarray gene expression data identified common genes found in our study and the referenced studies. According to our findings, SVR and GBM can be good predictors of dose-gene datasets. Another result of the study was to identify the sample size of n = 25 as a cutoff point for RT bagging to outperform a single RT.

SUBMITTER: Yılmaz Isıkhan S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5206477 | biostudies-other | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Determining Cutoff Point of Ensemble Trees Based on Sample Size in Predicting Clinical Dose with DNA Microarray Data.

Yılmaz Isıkhan Selen S Karabulut Erdem E Alpar Celal Reha CR

Computational and mathematical methods in medicine 20161220

<i>Background/Aim</i>. Evaluating the success of dose prediction based on genetic or clinical data has substantially advanced recently. The aim of this study is to predict various clinical dose values from DNA gene expression datasets using data mining techniques. <i>Materials and Methods</i>. Eleven real gene expression datasets containing dose values were included. First, important genes for dose prediction were selected using iterative sure independence screening. Then, the performances of re ...[more]

PMID: 28096893

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Project description:BackgroundBefore conducting a microarray experiment, one important issue that needs to be determined is the number of arrays required in order to have adequate power to identify differentially expressed genes. This paper discusses some crucial issues in the problem formulation, parameter specifications, and approaches that are commonly proposed for sample size estimation in microarray experiments. Common methods for sample size estimation are formulated as the minimum sample size necessary to achieve a specified sensitivity (proportion of detected truly differentially expressed genes) on average at a specified false discovery rate (FDR) level and specified expected proportion (pi1) of the true differentially expression genes in the array. Unfortunately, the probability of detecting the specified sensitivity in such a formulation can be low. We formulate the sample size problem as the number of arrays needed to achieve a specified sensitivity with 95% probability at the specified significance level. A permutation method using a small pilot dataset to estimate sample size is proposed. This method accounts for correlation and effect size heterogeneity among genes.ResultsA sample size estimate based on the common formulation, to achieve the desired sensitivity on average, can be calculated using a univariate method without taking the correlation among genes into consideration. This formulation of sample size problem is inadequate because the probability of detecting the specified sensitivity can be lower than 50%. On the other hand, the needed sample size calculated by the proposed permutation method will ensure detecting at least the desired sensitivity with 95% probability. The method is shown to perform well for a real example dataset using a small pilot dataset with 4-6 samples per group.ConclusionsWe recommend that the sample size problem should be formulated to detect a specified proportion of differentially expressed genes with 95% probability. This formulation ensures finding the desired proportion of true positives with high probability. The proposed permutation method takes the correlation structure and effect size heterogeneity into consideration and works well using only a small pilot dataset.

Project description:BackgroundMicroarray experiments are often performed with a small number of biological replicates, resulting in low statistical power for detecting differentially expressed genes and concomitant high false positive rates. While increasing sample size can increase statistical power and decrease error rates, with too many samples, valuable resources are not used efficiently. The issue of how many replicates are required in a typical experimental system needs to be addressed. Of particular interest is the difference in required sample sizes for similar experiments in inbred vs. outbred populations (e.g. mouse and rat vs. human).ResultsWe hypothesize that if all other factors (assay protocol, microarray platform, data pre-processing) were equal, fewer individuals would be needed for the same statistical power using inbred animals as opposed to unrelated human subjects, as genetic effects on gene expression will be removed in the inbred populations. We apply the same normalization algorithm and estimate the variance of gene expression for a variety of cDNA data sets (humans, inbred mice and rats) comparing two conditions. Using one sample, paired sample or two independent sample t-tests, we calculate the sample sizes required to detect a 1.5-, 2-, and 4-fold changes in expression level as a function of false positive rate, power and percentage of genes that have a standard deviation below a given percentile.ConclusionsFactors that affect power and sample size calculations include variability of the population, the desired detectable differences, the power to detect the differences, and an acceptable error rate. In addition, experimental design, technical variability and data pre-processing play a role in the power of the statistical tests in microarrays. We show that the number of samples required for detecting a 2-fold change with 90% probability and a p-value of 0.01 in humans is much larger than the number of samples commonly used in present day studies, and that far fewer individuals are needed for the same statistical power when using inbred animals rather than unrelated human subjects.

Dataset Information

Determining Cutoff Point of Ensemble Trees Based on Sample Size in Predicting Clinical Dose with DNA Microarray Data.

Publications

Determining Cutoff Point of Ensemble Trees Based on Sample Size in Predicting Clinical Dose with DNA Microarray Data.

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