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Greenhouse gas growth rates.

ABSTRACT: We posit that feasible reversal of the growth of atmospheric CH(4) and other trace gases would provide a vital contribution toward averting dangerous anthropogenic interference with global climate. Such trace gas reductions may allow stabilization of atmospheric CO(2) at an achievable level of anthropogenic CO(2) emissions, even if the added global warming constituting dangerous anthropogenic interference is as small as 1 degrees C. A 1 degrees C limit on global warming, with canonical climate sensitivity, requires peak CO(2) approximately 440 ppm if further non-CO(2) forcing is +0.5 W/m(2), but peak CO(2) approximately 520 ppm if further non-CO(2) forcing is -0.5 W/m(2). The practical result is that a decline of non-CO(2) forcings allows climate forcing to be stabilized with a significantly higher transient level of CO(2) emissions. Increased "natural" emissions of CO(2), N(2)O, and CH(4) are expected in response to global warming. These emissions, an indirect effect of all climate forcings, are small compared with human-made climate forcing and occur on a time scale of a few centuries, but they tend to aggravate the task of stabilizing atmospheric composition.

SUBMITTER: Hansen J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC526279 | biostudies-other | 2004 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Greenhouse gas growth rates.

Hansen James J Sato Makiko M

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20041109 46

We posit that feasible reversal of the growth of atmospheric CH(4) and other trace gases would provide a vital contribution toward averting dangerous anthropogenic interference with global climate. Such trace gas reductions may allow stabilization of atmospheric CO(2) at an achievable level of anthropogenic CO(2) emissions, even if the added global warming constituting dangerous anthropogenic interference is as small as 1 degrees C. A 1 degrees C limit on global warming, with canonical climate s ...[more]

PMID: 15536130

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Project description:BackgroundFood production accounts for 30% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Less environmentally sustainable diets are also often more processed, energy-dense and nutrient-poor. To date, the environmental impact of diets have mostly been based on a limited number of broad food groups.ObjectivesWe link GHG emissions to over 3000 foods, assessing associations between individuals' GHG emissions, their nutrient requirements and their demographic characteristics. We also identify additional information required in dietary assessment to generate more accurate environmental impact data for individual-level diets.MethodsGHG emissions of individual foods, including process stages prior to retail, were added to the UK Composition Of Foods Integrated Dataset (COFID) composition tables and linked to automated online dietary assessment for 212 adults over three 24-hour periods. Variations in GHG emissions were explored by dietary pattern, demographic characteristics and World Health Organization Recommended Nutrient Intakes (RNIs).ResultsGHG emissions estimates were linked to 98% (n = 3233) of food items. Meat explained 32% of diet-related GHG emissions; 15% from drinks; 14% from dairy; and 8% from cakes, biscuits and confectionery. Non-vegetarian diets had GHG emissions 59% (95% CI 18%, 115%) higher than vegetarian. Men had 41% (20%, 64%) higher GHG emissions than women. Individuals meeting RNIs for saturated fats, carbohydrates and sodium had lower GHG emissions compared to those exceeding the RNI.DiscussionPolicies encouraging sustainable diets should focus on plant-based diets. Substituting tea, coffee and alcohol with more sustainable alternatives, whilst reducing less nutritious sweet snacks, presents further opportunities. Healthier diets had lower GHG emissions, demonstrating consistency between planetary and personal health. Further detail could be gained from incorporating brand, production methods, post-retail emissions, country of origin, and additional environmental impact indicators.

Dataset Information

Greenhouse gas growth rates.

Publications

Greenhouse gas growth rates.

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