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Comparing diagnostic tests on benefit-risk.

ABSTRACT: Comparing diagnostic tests on accuracy alone can be inconclusive. For example, a test may have better sensitivity than another test yet worse specificity. Comparing tests on benefit risk may be more conclusive because clinical consequences of diagnostic error are considered. For benefit-risk evaluation, we propose diagnostic yield, the expected distribution of subjects with true positive, false positive, true negative, and false negative test results in a hypothetical population. We construct a table of diagnostic yield that includes the number of false positive subjects experiencing adverse consequences from unnecessary work-up. We then develop a decision theory for evaluating tests. The theory provides additional interpretation to quantities in the diagnostic yield table. It also indicates that the expected utility of a test relative to a perfect test is a weighted accuracy measure, the average of sensitivity and specificity weighted for prevalence and relative importance of false positive and false negative testing errors, also interpretable as the cost-benefit ratio of treating non-diseased and diseased subjects. We propose plots of diagnostic yield, weighted accuracy, and relative net benefit of tests as functions of prevalence or cost-benefit ratio. Concepts are illustrated with hypothetical screening tests for colorectal cancer with test positive subjects being referred to colonoscopy.

SUBMITTER: Pennello G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5471848 | biostudies-other | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Project description:OBJECTIVE:To evaluate the discriminatory value and compare the predictive performance of six non-invasive tests used for perioperative cardiac risk stratification in patients undergoing major vascular surgery. DESIGN:Meta-analysis of published reports. METHODS:Eight studies on ambulatory electrocardiography, seven on exercise electrocardiography, eight on radionuclide ventriculography, 23 on myocardial perfusion scintigraphy, eight on dobutamine stress echocardiography, and four on dipyridamole stress echocardiography were selected, using a systematic review of published reports on preoperative non-invasive tests from the Medline database (January 1975 and April 2001). Random effects models were used to calculate weighted sensitivity and specificity from the published results. Summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC) curve analysis was used to evaluate and compare the prognostic accuracy of each test. The relative diagnostic odds ratio was used to study the differences in diagnostic performance of the tests. RESULTS:In all, 8119 patients participated in the studies selected. Dobutamine stress echocardiography had the highest weighted sensitivity of 85% (95% confidence interval (CI) 74% to 97%) and a reasonable specificity of 70% (95% CI 62% to 79%) for predicting perioperative cardiac death and non-fatal myocardial infarction. On SROC analysis, there was a trend for dobutamine stress echocardiography to perform better than the other tests, but this only reached significance against myocardial perfusion scintigraphy (relative diagnostic odds ratio 5.5, 95% CI 2.0 to 14.9). CONCLUSIONS:On meta-analysis of six non-invasive tests, dobutamine stress echocardiography showed a positive trend towards better diagnostic performance than the other tests, but this was only significant in the comparison with myocardial perfusion scintigraphy. However, dobutamine stress echocardiography may be the favoured test in situations where there is valvar or left ventricular dysfunction.

Project description:BackgroundLeprosy is the most frequent treatable neuromuscular disease. Yet, every year, thousands of patients develop permanent peripheral nerve damage as a result of leprosy. Since early detection and treatment of neuropathy in leprosy has strong preventive potential, we conducted a cohort study to determine which test detects this neuropathy earliest.Methods and findingsOne hundred and eighty-eight multibacillary (MB) leprosy patients were selected from a cohort of 303 and followed for 2 years after diagnosis. Nerve function was evaluated at each visit using nerve conduction (NC), quantitative thermal sensory testing and vibrometry, dynamometry, monofilament testing (MFT), and voluntary muscle testing (VMT). Study outcomes were sensory and motor impairment detected by MFT or VMT. Seventy-four of 188 patients (39%) had a reaction, neuritis, or new nerve function impairment (NFI) event during a 2-year follow-up. Sub-clinical neuropathy was extensive (20%-50%), even in patients who did not develop an outcome event. Sensory nerve action potential (SNAP) amplitudes, compound motor action potential (CMAP) velocities, and warm detection thresholds (WDT) were most frequently affected, with SNAP impairment frequencies ranging from 30% (median) to 69% (sural). Velocity was impaired in up to 43% of motor nerves. WDTs were more frequently affected than cold detection thresholds (29% versus 13%, ulnar nerve). Impairment of SNC and warm perception often preceded deterioration in MF or VMT scores by 12 weeks or more.ConclusionsA large proportion of leprosy patients have subclinical neuropathy that was not evident when only MFT and VMT were used. SNC was the most frequently and earliest affected test, closely followed by WDT. They are promising tests for improving early detection of neuropathy, as they often became abnormal 12 weeks or more before an abnormal monofilament test. Changes in MFT and VMT score mirrored changes in neurophysiology, confirming their validity as screening tests.

Project description:IntroductionNovel screening tests used to detect a target condition are compared against either a reference standard or other existing screening methods. However, as it is not always possible to apply the reference standard on the whole population under study, verification bias is introduced. Statistical methods exist to adjust estimates to account for this bias. We extend common methods to adjust for verification bias when multiple tests are compared to a reference standard using data from a prospective double blind screening study for prostate cancer.MethodsBegg and Greenes method and multiple imputation are extended to include the results of multiple screening tests which determine condition verification status. These two methods are compared to the complete case analysis using the IP1-PROSTAGRAM study data. IP1-PROSTAGRAM used a paired-cohort double-blind design to evaluate the use of imaging as alternative tests to screen for prostate cancer, compared to a blood test called prostate specific antigen (PSA). Participants with positive imaging (index) and/or PSA (control) underwent a prostate biopsy (reference standard).ResultsWhen comparing complete case results to Begg and Greenes and methods of multiple imputation there is a statistically significant increase in the specificity estimates for all screening tests. Sensitivity estimates remained similar across the methods, with completely overlapping 95% confidence intervals. Negative predictive value (NPV) estimates were higher when adjusting for verification bias, compared to complete case analysis, even though the 95% confidence intervals overlap. Positive predictive value (PPV) estimates were similar across all methods.ConclusionStatistical methods are required to adjust for verification bias in accuracy estimates of screening tests. Expanding Begg and Greenes method to include multiple screening tests can be computationally intensive, hence multiple imputation is recommended, especially as it can be modified for low prevalence of the target condition.

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Comparing diagnostic tests on benefit-risk.

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