Modelling West Nile virus transmission risk in Europe: effect of temperature and mosquito biotypes on the basic reproduction number.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Vogels CBF
PROVIDER: S-EPMC5504010 | biostudies-other | 2017 Jul
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other
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Project description:Wolbachia is possibly the most studied reproductive parasite of arthropod species. It appears to be a promising candidate for biocontrol of some mosquito borne diseases. We begin by developing a sex-structured model for a Wolbachia infected mosquito population. Our model incorporates the key effects of Wolbachia infection including cytoplasmic incompatibility and male killing. We also allow the possibility of reduced reproductive output, incomplete maternal transmission, and different mortality rates for uninfected/infected male/female individuals. We study the existence and local stability of equilibria, including the biologically relevant and interesting boundary equilibria. For some biologically relevant parameter regimes there may be multiple coexistence steady states including, very importantly, a coexistence steady state in which Wolbachia infected individuals dominate. We also extend the model to incorporate West Nile virus (WNv) dynamics, using an SEI modelling approach. Recent evidence suggests that a particular strain of Wolbachia infection significantly reduces WNv replication in Aedes aegypti. We model this via increased time spent in the WNv-exposed compartment for Wolbachia infected female mosquitoes. A basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] is computed for the WNv infection. Our results suggest that, if the mosquito population consists mainly of Wolbachia infected individuals, WNv eradication is likely if WNv replication in Wolbachia infected individuals is sufficiently reduced.
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Project description:ObjectiveTo estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) for COVID-19 in Western Europe.MethodsData (official statistics) on the cumulative incidence of COVID-19 at the start of the outbreak (before any confinement rules were declared) were retrieved in the 15 largest countries in Western Europe, allowing us to estimate the exponential growth rate of the disease. The rate was then combined with estimates of the distribution of the generation interval as reconstructed from the literature.ResultsDespite the possible unreliability of some official statistics about COVID-19, the spread of the disease appears to be remarkably similar in most European countries, allowing us to estimate an average R0 in Western Europe of 2.2 (95% CI: 1.9-2.6).ConclusionsThe value of R0 for COVID-19 in Western Europe appears to be significantly lower than that in China. The proportion of immune persons in the European population required to stop the outbreak could thus be closer to 50% than to 70%.
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Project description:West Nile virus, Kunjin strain (WNVKUN) is endemic in Northern Australia, but rarely causes clinical disease in humans and horses. Recently, WNVKUN genomic material was detected in cutaneous lesions of farmed saltwater crocodiles (Crocodylus porosus), but live virus could not be isolated, begging the question of the pathogenesis of these lesions. Crocodile hatchlings were experimentally infected with either 105 (n = 10) or 104 (n = 11) TCID50-doses of WNVKUN and each group co-housed with six uninfected hatchlings in a mosquito-free facility. Seven hatchlings were mock-infected and housed separately. Each crocodile was rotationally examined and blood-sampled every third day over a 3-week period. Eleven animals, including three crocodiles developing typical skin lesions, were culled and sampled 21 days post-infection (dpi). The remaining hatchlings were blood-sampled fortnightly until experimental endpoint 87 dpi. All hatchlings remained free of overt clinical disease, apart from skin lesions, throughout the experiment. Viremia was detected by qRT-PCR in infected animals during 2-17 dpi and in-contact animals 11-21 dpi, indicating horizontal mosquito-independent transmission. Detection of viral genome in tank-water as well as oral and cloacal swabs, collected on multiple days, suggests that shedding into pen-water and subsequent mucosal infection is the most likely route. All inoculated animals and some in-contact animals developed virus-neutralizing antibodies detectable from 17 dpi. Virus-neutralizing antibody titers continued to increase in exposed animals until the experimental endpoint, suggestive of persisting viral antigen. However, no viral antigen was detected by immunohistochemistry in any tissue sample, including from skin and intestine. While this study confirmed that infection of saltwater crocodiles with WNVKUN was associated with the formation of skin lesions, we were unable to elucidate the pathogenesis of these lesions or the nidus of viral persistence. Our results nevertheless suggest that prevention of WNVKUN infection and induction of skin lesions in farmed crocodiles may require management of both mosquito-borne and water-borne viral transmission in addition to vaccination strategies.
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Project description:The basic reproduction number, [Formula: see text], is one of the many measures of the epidemic potential of an infection in a population. We estimate HIV [Formula: see text] over 18 years in a rural population in Uganda, examine method-specific differences in estimated [Formula: see text], and estimate behavioural changes that would reduce [Formula: see text] below one.Data on HIV natural history and infectiousness were collated from literature. Data on new sexual partner count were available from a rural clinical cohort in Uganda over 1991-2008. [Formula: see text] was estimated using six methods. Behavioural changes required to reduce [Formula: see text] below one were calculated.Reported number of new partners per year was 0 to 16 (women) and 0 to 80 (men). When proportionate sexual mixing was assumed, the different methods yielded comparable [Formula: see text] estimates. Assuming totally assortative mixing led to increased [Formula: see text] estimates in the high sexual activity class while all estimates in the low-activity class were below one. Using the "effective" partner change rate introduced by Anderson and colleagues resulted in [Formula: see text] estimates all above one except in the lowest sexual activity class. [Formula: see text] could be reduced below one if: (a) medium risk individuals reduce their partner acquisition rate by 70% and higher risk individuals reduce their partner acquisition rate by 93%, or (b) higher risk individuals reduce the partner acquisition rate by 95%.The estimated [Formula: see text] depended strongly on the method used. Ignoring variation in sexual activity leads to an underestimation of [Formula: see text]. Relying on behaviour change alone to eradicate HIV may require unrealistically large reductions in risk behaviour, even though for a small proportion of the population. To control HIV, complementary prevention strategies such as male circumcision and HIV treatment services need rapid scale up.
| S-EPMC3880255 | biostudies-literature
Project description:UnlabelledUnderstanding the transmission dynamics of pathogens is essential to determine the epidemiology, ecology, and ways of controlling enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC) in animals and their environments. Our objective was to estimate the epidemiological fitness of common EHEC strains in cattle populations. For that purpose, we developed a Markov chain model to characterize the dynamics of 7 serogroups of enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (O26, O45, O103, O111, O121, O145, and O157) in cattle production environments based on a set of cross-sectional data on infection prevalence in 2 years in two U.S. states. The basic reproduction number (R0) was estimated using a Bayesian framework for each serogroup based on two criteria (using serogroup alone [the O-group data] and using O serogroup, Shiga toxin gene[s], and intimin [eae] gene together [the EHEC data]). In addition, correlations between external covariates (e.g., location, ambient temperature, dietary, and probiotic usage) and prevalence/R0 were quantified. R0 estimates varied substantially among different EHEC serogroups, with EHEC O157 having an R0 of >1 (∼1.5) and all six other EHEC serogroups having an R0 of less than 1. Using the O-group data substantially increased R0 estimates for the O26, O45, and O103 serogroups (R0 > 1) but not for the others. Different covariates had distinct influences on different serogroups: the coefficients for each covariate were different among serogroups. Our modeling and analysis of this system can be readily expanded to other pathogen systems in order to estimate the pathogen and external factors that influence spread of infectious agents.ImportanceIn this paper we describe a Bayesian modeling framework to estimate basic reproduction numbers of multiple serotypes of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli according to a cross-sectional study. We then coupled a compartmental model to reconstruct the infection dynamics of these serotypes and quantify their risk in the population. We incorporated different sensitivity levels of detecting different serotypes and evaluated their potential influence on the estimation of basic reproduction numbers.
| S-EPMC5007764 | biostudies-literature
Project description:West Nile virus (WNV), a mosquito-borne flavivirus, has significantly expanded its geographical and host range since its 1999 introduction into North America. The underlying mechanisms of evolution of WNV and other arboviruses are still poorly understood. Studies evaluating virus adaptation and fitness in relevant in vivo systems are largely lacking. In order to evaluate the capacity for host-specific adaptation and the genetic correlates of adaptation in vivo, this study measured phenotypic and genotypic changes in WNV resulting from passage in Culex pipiens mosquitoes. An increase in replicative ability of WNV in C. pipiens was attained for the two lineages of WNV tested. This adaptation for replication in mosquitoes did not result in a replicative cost in chickens, but did decrease cell-to-cell spread of virus in vertebrate cell culture. Genetic analyses of one mosquito-adapted lineage revealed a total of nine consensus nucleotide substitutions with no accumulation of a significant mutant spectrum. These results differed significantly from previous in vitro studies. When St Louis encephalitis virus (SLEV), a closely related flavivirus, was passaged in C. pipiens, moderately attenuated growth in C. pipiens was observed for two lineages tested. These results suggest that significant differences in the capacity for mosquito adaptation may exist between WNV and SLEV, and demonstrate that further comparative studies in relevant in vivo systems will help elucidate the still largely unknown mechanisms of arboviral adaptation in ecologically relevant hosts.
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Project description:An intensified and continuous West Nile virus (WNV) spread across northern Italy has been observed since 2008, which caused more than one hundred reported human infections until 2016. Veneto is one of the Italian regions where WNV is considered endemic, and the greatest intensity of circulation was observed during 2013 and 2016. By using entomological data collected across the region in those years, we calibrated a temperature-driven mathematical model through a Bayesian approach that simulates the WNV infection in an avian population with seasonal demography. We considered two alternative routes of life cycle re-activation of the virus at the beginning of each vector breeding season: in the first one the virus is maintained by infected birds, in the other by diapausing mosquitoes previously infected. Afterwards, we computed seasonal risk curves for human infection and quantified how they translate into reported symptomatic cases. According to our results, WNV is more likely to be re-activated each year via previously infected mosquitoes. The highest probability of human infection is expected to occur in August, consistently with observations. Our epidemiological estimates can be of particular interest for public health authorities, to support decisions in term of designing efficient surveillance plans and preventive measures.
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Project description:The continuous circulation of West Nile virus (WNV) in Central, South and East Europe and its recent detection in several dead birds and two horses in Germany highlights the need for information on WNV vector competence of mosquitoes from Central Europe. Therefore, three common Culex species (Culex pipiens biotype pipiens, Culex pipiens biotype molestus and Culex torrentium) from Germany were orally infected with WNV and kept at 18 °C, 21 °C, 24 °C or 27 °C for 14 or 21 days post infection (dpi). Thereafter viable WNV was present in the saliva in all tested taxa, but only at incubation temperatures of 24 °C or 27 °C and predominantly at the extended incubation period of 21 dpi. Highest transmission efficiency rates of 17 % (24 °C) and 24% (27 °C) were found for Cx. torrentium. Culex p. pipiens and Cx. p. molestus showed low transmission efficiencies with a maximum of only 3%. Consequently, temperatures above 21 °C support transmission of WNV, which matches the predominant distribution of human WNV cases around the Mediterranean Sea and in South-East Europe. Culex torrentium has been identified as a potent vector for WNV in Central and Northern Europe, which highlights the need for surveillance of mosquito-borne viruses north of the Alps.
| S-EPMC6630772 | biostudies-literature
Project description:West Nile virus (WNV) is now the predominant circulating arthropod-borne virus in the United States with >15,000 human cases and >600 fatalities since 1999. Conventionally, mosquitoes become infected when feeding on viremic birds and subsequently transmit the virus to susceptible hosts. Here, we demonstrate nonviremic transmission of WNV between cofeeding mosquitoes. Donor, Culex pipiens quinquefasciatus mosquitoes infected with WNV were fed simultaneously with uninfected "recipient" mosquitoes on naïve mice. At all times, donor and recipient mosquitoes were housed in separate sealed containers, precluding the possibility of mixing. Recipients became infected in all five trials, with infection rates as high as 5.8% and no detectable viremia in the hosts. Remarkably, a 2.3% infection rate was observed when 87 uninfected mosquitoes fed adjacent to a single infected mosquito. This phenomenon could potentially enhance virus survival, transmission, and dispersion and obviate the requirement for viremia. All vertebrates, including immune and insusceptible animals, might therefore facilitate mosquito infection. Our findings question the status of dead-end hosts in the WNV transmission cycle and may partly explain the success with which WNV established and rapidly dispersed throughout North America.
| S-EPMC1157059 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundWest Nile virus (WNV) is currently the most important mosquito-borne pathogen spreading in Europe. Data on overwintering of WNV in mosquitoes are crucial for understanding WNV circulation in Europe; nonetheless, such data were not available so far.ResultsA total of 28,287 hibernating mosquitoes [27,872 Culex pipiens, 73 Anopheles maculipennis (sensu lato), and 342 Culiseta annulata], caught in February or March between 2011 and 2017 in a WNV-endemic region of South Moravia, Czech Republic, were screened for the presence of WNV RNA. No WNV positive pools were found from 2011 to 2016, while lineage 2 WNV RNA was detected in three pools of Culex pipens mosquitoes collected in 2017 at two study sites.ConclusionsTo the best of our knowledge, this is the first record of WNV RNA in overwintering mosquitoes in Europe. The data support the hypothesis of WNV persistence in mosquitoes throughout the winter season in Europe.
| S-EPMC5625652 | biostudies-literature