Modelling West Nile virus transmission risk in Europe: effect of temperature and mosquito biotypes on the basic reproduction number.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Vogels CBF
PROVIDER: S-EPMC5504010 | biostudies-other | 2017 Jul
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other
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Project description:Wolbachia is possibly the most studied reproductive parasite of arthropod species. It appears to be a promising candidate for biocontrol of some mosquito borne diseases. We begin by developing a sex-structured model for a Wolbachia infected mosquito population. Our model incorporates the key effects of Wolbachia infection including cytoplasmic incompatibility and male killing. We also allow the possibility of reduced reproductive output, incomplete maternal transmission, and different mortality rates for uninfected/infected male/female individuals. We study the existence and local stability of equilibria, including the biologically relevant and interesting boundary equilibria. For some biologically relevant parameter regimes there may be multiple coexistence steady states including, very importantly, a coexistence steady state in which Wolbachia infected individuals dominate. We also extend the model to incorporate West Nile virus (WNv) dynamics, using an SEI modelling approach. Recent evidence suggests that a particular strain of Wolbachia infection significantly reduces WNv replication in Aedes aegypti. We model this via increased time spent in the WNv-exposed compartment for Wolbachia infected female mosquitoes. A basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] is computed for the WNv infection. Our results suggest that, if the mosquito population consists mainly of Wolbachia infected individuals, WNv eradication is likely if WNv replication in Wolbachia infected individuals is sufficiently reduced.
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Project description:ObjectiveTo estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) for COVID-19 in Western Europe.MethodsData (official statistics) on the cumulative incidence of COVID-19 at the start of the outbreak (before any confinement rules were declared) were retrieved in the 15 largest countries in Western Europe, allowing us to estimate the exponential growth rate of the disease. The rate was then combined with estimates of the distribution of the generation interval as reconstructed from the literature.ResultsDespite the possible unreliability of some official statistics about COVID-19, the spread of the disease appears to be remarkably similar in most European countries, allowing us to estimate an average R0 in Western Europe of 2.2 (95% CI: 1.9-2.6).ConclusionsThe value of R0 for COVID-19 in Western Europe appears to be significantly lower than that in China. The proportion of immune persons in the European population required to stop the outbreak could thus be closer to 50% than to 70%.
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Project description:West Nile virus, Kunjin strain (WNVKUN) is endemic in Northern Australia, but rarely causes clinical disease in humans and horses. Recently, WNVKUN genomic material was detected in cutaneous lesions of farmed saltwater crocodiles (Crocodylus porosus), but live virus could not be isolated, begging the question of the pathogenesis of these lesions. Crocodile hatchlings were experimentally infected with either 105 (n = 10) or 104 (n = 11) TCID50-doses of WNVKUN and each group co-housed with six uninfected hatchlings in a mosquito-free facility. Seven hatchlings were mock-infected and housed separately. Each crocodile was rotationally examined and blood-sampled every third day over a 3-week period. Eleven animals, including three crocodiles developing typical skin lesions, were culled and sampled 21 days post-infection (dpi). The remaining hatchlings were blood-sampled fortnightly until experimental endpoint 87 dpi. All hatchlings remained free of overt clinical disease, apart from skin lesions, throughout the experiment. Viremia was detected by qRT-PCR in infected animals during 2-17 dpi and in-contact animals 11-21 dpi, indicating horizontal mosquito-independent transmission. Detection of viral genome in tank-water as well as oral and cloacal swabs, collected on multiple days, suggests that shedding into pen-water and subsequent mucosal infection is the most likely route. All inoculated animals and some in-contact animals developed virus-neutralizing antibodies detectable from 17 dpi. Virus-neutralizing antibody titers continued to increase in exposed animals until the experimental endpoint, suggestive of persisting viral antigen. However, no viral antigen was detected by immunohistochemistry in any tissue sample, including from skin and intestine. While this study confirmed that infection of saltwater crocodiles with WNVKUN was associated with the formation of skin lesions, we were unable to elucidate the pathogenesis of these lesions or the nidus of viral persistence. Our results nevertheless suggest that prevention of WNVKUN infection and induction of skin lesions in farmed crocodiles may require management of both mosquito-borne and water-borne viral transmission in addition to vaccination strategies.
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Project description:The basic reproduction number, [Formula: see text], is one of the many measures of the epidemic potential of an infection in a population. We estimate HIV [Formula: see text] over 18 years in a rural population in Uganda, examine method-specific differences in estimated [Formula: see text], and estimate behavioural changes that would reduce [Formula: see text] below one.Data on HIV natural history and infectiousness were collated from literature. Data on new sexual partner count were available from a rural clinical cohort in Uganda over 1991-2008. [Formula: see text] was estimated using six methods. Behavioural changes required to reduce [Formula: see text] below one were calculated.Reported number of new partners per year was 0 to 16 (women) and 0 to 80 (men). When proportionate sexual mixing was assumed, the different methods yielded comparable [Formula: see text] estimates. Assuming totally assortative mixing led to increased [Formula: see text] estimates in the high sexual activity class while all estimates in the low-activity class were below one. Using the "effective" partner change rate introduced by Anderson and colleagues resulted in [Formula: see text] estimates all above one except in the lowest sexual activity class. [Formula: see text] could be reduced below one if: (a) medium risk individuals reduce their partner acquisition rate by 70% and higher risk individuals reduce their partner acquisition rate by 93%, or (b) higher risk individuals reduce the partner acquisition rate by 95%.The estimated [Formula: see text] depended strongly on the method used. Ignoring variation in sexual activity leads to an underestimation of [Formula: see text]. Relying on behaviour change alone to eradicate HIV may require unrealistically large reductions in risk behaviour, even though for a small proportion of the population. To control HIV, complementary prevention strategies such as male circumcision and HIV treatment services need rapid scale up.
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Project description:UnlabelledUnderstanding the transmission dynamics of pathogens is essential to determine the epidemiology, ecology, and ways of controlling enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC) in animals and their environments. Our objective was to estimate the epidemiological fitness of common EHEC strains in cattle populations. For that purpose, we developed a Markov chain model to characterize the dynamics of 7 serogroups of enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (O26, O45, O103, O111, O121, O145, and O157) in cattle production environments based on a set of cross-sectional data on infection prevalence in 2 years in two U.S. states. The basic reproduction number (R0) was estimated using a Bayesian framework for each serogroup based on two criteria (using serogroup alone [the O-group data] and using O serogroup, Shiga toxin gene[s], and intimin [eae] gene together [the EHEC data]). In addition, correlations between external covariates (e.g., location, ambient temperature, dietary, and probiotic usage) and prevalence/R0 were quantified. R0 estimates varied substantially among different EHEC serogroups, with EHEC O157 having an R0 of >1 (∼1.5) and all six other EHEC serogroups having an R0 of less than 1. Using the O-group data substantially increased R0 estimates for the O26, O45, and O103 serogroups (R0 > 1) but not for the others. Different covariates had distinct influences on different serogroups: the coefficients for each covariate were different among serogroups. Our modeling and analysis of this system can be readily expanded to other pathogen systems in order to estimate the pathogen and external factors that influence spread of infectious agents.ImportanceIn this paper we describe a Bayesian modeling framework to estimate basic reproduction numbers of multiple serotypes of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli according to a cross-sectional study. We then coupled a compartmental model to reconstruct the infection dynamics of these serotypes and quantify their risk in the population. We incorporated different sensitivity levels of detecting different serotypes and evaluated their potential influence on the estimation of basic reproduction numbers.
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Project description:West Nile virus (WNV), a mosquito-borne flavivirus, has significantly expanded its geographical and host range since its 1999 introduction into North America. The underlying mechanisms of evolution of WNV and other arboviruses are still poorly understood. Studies evaluating virus adaptation and fitness in relevant in vivo systems are largely lacking. In order to evaluate the capacity for host-specific adaptation and the genetic correlates of adaptation in vivo, this study measured phenotypic and genotypic changes in WNV resulting from passage in Culex pipiens mosquitoes. An increase in replicative ability of WNV in C. pipiens was attained for the two lineages of WNV tested. This adaptation for replication in mosquitoes did not result in a replicative cost in chickens, but did decrease cell-to-cell spread of virus in vertebrate cell culture. Genetic analyses of one mosquito-adapted lineage revealed a total of nine consensus nucleotide substitutions with no accumulation of a significant mutant spectrum. These results differed significantly from previous in vitro studies. When St Louis encephalitis virus (SLEV), a closely related flavivirus, was passaged in C. pipiens, moderately attenuated growth in C. pipiens was observed for two lineages tested. These results suggest that significant differences in the capacity for mosquito adaptation may exist between WNV and SLEV, and demonstrate that further comparative studies in relevant in vivo systems will help elucidate the still largely unknown mechanisms of arboviral adaptation in ecologically relevant hosts.
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Project description:BackgroundVector control strategies typically rely on pesticides to target mosquitoes involved in enzootic and zoonotic transmission of West Nile virus (WNV). Nevertheless, increasing insecticide resistance and a desire to reduce pesticide usage provide the impetus for developing alternative strategies. Ivermectin (IVM), an antiparasitic drug which is widely used in human and veterinary medicine, is a potential alternative for targeted control because Culex mosquitoes experience increased mortality following ingestion of IVM in bloodmeals.Methodology/principal findingsWe conducted a randomized field trial to investigate the impact of treating backyard chicken flocks with IVM in urban neighborhoods across Davis, California on mosquito populations and WNV transmission dynamics. We observed a significant reduction in WNV seroconversions in treated vs. untreated chickens, suggesting a reduction in WNV transmission intensity around treated flocks. We also detected a reduction in parity rates of Cx. tarsalis near treated vs. untreated flocks and increased mortality in wild mosquitoes following a bloodmeal on treated chickens (IVM serum concentration > 5ng/mL) vs. chickens with IVM serum concentrations < 5 ng/mL. However, we did not find a significant difference in abundance or infection prevalence in mosquitoes between treatment groups associated with the reductions in seroconversions. Mosquito immigration from surrounding larval habitat, relatively low WNV activity in the study area, and variable IVM serum concentrations likely contributed to uncertainty about the impact.Conclusions/significanceTaken together, our results point to a reduction in WNV transmission due to the impact of IVM on Culex mosquito populations and support the ongoing investigation of oral administration of IVM to wild birds for local control of WNV transmission, although further work is needed to optimize dosing and understand effects on entomological endpoints.
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