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Predictive value of serum progesterone level on β-hCG check day in women with previous repeated miscarriages after in vitro fertilization.

ABSTRACT: To evaluate the predictive value of the progesterone level at the beta-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG) check day for ongoing pregnancy maintenance in in vitro fertilization (IVF) cycles in women with previous unexplained repeated miscarriages.One hundred and forty-eight women, with visible gestational sac after IVF, were recruited in this observational study. All subjects had unexplained recurrent miscarriages in more than two previous IVF cycles. The progesterone level at the β-hCG check day (i.e. 14 days after oocyte retrieval) was assessed. The area under the curve (AUC) of the progesterone level was evaluated to predict the ongoing pregnancy or miscarriage outcomes.The overall ongoing pregnancy rate was 60.8% (90/148). The cut-off value with β-hCG levels higher than 126.5 mIU/mL and with progesterone levels higher than 25.2 ng/mL could be the predictive factors for ongoing pregnancy maintenance (AUC = 0.788 and 0.826; sensitivity = 0.788 and 0.723; specificity = 0.689 and 0.833; P < 0.0001 and P < 0.0001, respectively). The miscarriage rates were 19.5% (15/77) in the women with β-hCG > 126.5 mIU/mL and 13.0% (10/77) in those with > 25.2 ng/mL. In the comparison of the ROC curves between both values, a similar significance was found. The subjects with β-hCG > 126.5 mIU/mL and progesterone > 25.2 ng/mL showed higher ongoing pregnancy rates [98.0% (49/50) vs. 41.8% (41/98)] than those with β-hCG ≤ 126.5 mIU/mL or progesterone ≤ 25.2 ng/mL.The progesterone level at 14 days after oocyte retrieval can be a good predictive marker for ongoing pregnancy maintenance in women with repeated IVF failure with miscarriage, together with the β-hCG level. The combined cut-off value of progesterone > 25.2 ng/mL and β-hCG > 126.5 mIU/mL may suggest a good prognosis.

SUBMITTER: Kim YJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5510853 | biostudies-other | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Project description:BackgroundPolycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is a common endocrine disorder with the disorders of estrogen(E2) and progesterone(P) secretion. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association between the progesterone level or progesterone/estradiol(P/E2) ratio on human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) trigger day and the outcome of in vitro fertilization in PCOS patients and explore the value of progesterone and P/E2 ratio for predicting the clinical pregnancy.MethodsThe clinical data of 1254 PCOS patients who satisfied the inclusion criteria were retrospectively analyzed, including baseline characteristics such as age, body mass index, basal sex hormone levels, et al., as well as ovarian stimulation data and clinic outcome.ResultsThe number of follicles larger than 14 mm in diameter (P < 0.001) and retrieved oocytes (P < 0.001) was greater in the high progesterone group (progesterone ≥ 0.92 ng/mL). In the high P/E2 group(P/E2 ratio ≥ 0.3), the number of follicles larger than 14 mm in diameter (P < 0.001) and retrieved oocytes (P < 0.001), as well as the rate of high-quality embryos (P = 0.040) were significantly decreased. In ultralong GnRH agonist protocol, the implantation rate(P < 0.001), hCG positive rate (P < 0.001), clinical pregnancy rate (P < 0.001) and live birth rate (P < 0.001) were all significantly higher than long GnRH agonist protocol and GnRH antagonist protocol. The clinical pregnancy rate of high progesterone group was significantly lower than that of low progesterone group in ultralong GnRH agonist (P = 0.008). The progesterone level could be used as an indicator to predict the positive clinical pregnancy (long GnRH agonist: P = 0.001; ultralong GnRH agonist: P < 0.001) except in cycles using GnRH antagonist (P = 0.169). In the ultralong GnRH agonist, the value of progesterone level in the prediction of clinical pregnancy was significantly higher than that of the P/E2 ratio (P = 0.021).ConclusionsIn PCOS patients, the progesterone level is associated with clinical pregnancy rate while P/E2 ratio is not. In subgroup analysis using three different COS protocols, a significant association between progesterone level and clinical pregnancy rate can be observed in the long GnRH agonist protocol and ultralong GnRH agonist protocol. The progesterone level is significantly better than the P/E2 ratio in predicting the pregnancy outcome of PCOS patients, especially in ultralong GnRH agonist cycles.

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Predictive value of serum progesterone level on β-hCG check day in women with previous repeated miscarriages after in vitro fertilization.

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