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A prognostic nomogram for overall survival after neoadjuvant radiotherapy or chemoradiotherapy in thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma: a retrospective analysis.

ABSTRACT: Currently, the AJCC staging system or pathological complete response (pCR) are considered not sufficiently accurate to evaluate the survival of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma after neoadjuvant radiotherapy or chemoradiotherapy. This study aimed to establish a nomogram and a recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) model to estimate prognosis and to provide advice for subsequent treatments.We analyzed retrospectively 407 patients that were diagnosed with thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (TESCC) and received neoadjuvant radiotherapy or chemoradiotherapy. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals of categorical clinicopathological characteristics with overall survival (OS) were calculated using the Cox proportional hazard model. The nomogram and RPA model were then established and total scores according to each variable were calculated and stratified to predict OS.Patients were followed-up over a median 49.9 months. AJCC did not perform well in distinguishing OS among each stage except for IIB and IIIA. Patients were divided into 4 groups according to the total scores based on nomogram (low risk: ≤180; intermediate risk: 180-270; high risk: 270-340; very high risk: >340). The 5-year OS was 57.3%, 40.7%, 18.3%, 6.1% respectively (p<0.05). RPA model also divide the patients into 4 groups, though group2 and group3 were not statistically significant (p=0.574).The nomogram is a good evaluation model for estimating the prognosis of patients with TESCC after neoadjuvant radiotherapy or chemoradiotherapy compared with the AJCC and RPA. The results of this study also suggested that the high-risk subgroups need further treatments.

SUBMITTER: Deng W

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5522220 | biostudies-other | 2017 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Project description:Background The study aimed to develop a nomogram model to predict overall survival (OS) and construct a risk stratification system of upper thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). Methods Newly diagnosed 568 patients with upper ESCC at Fujian Medical University Cancer Hospital were taken as a training cohort, and additional 155 patients with upper ESCC from Sichuan Cancer Hospital Institute were used as a validation cohort. A nomogram was established using Cox proportional hazard regression to identify prognostic factors for OS. The predictive power of nomogram model was evaluated by using 4 indices: concordance statistics (C-index), time-dependent ROC (ROCt) curve, net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). Results In this study, multivariate analysis revealed that gender, clinical T stage, clinical N stage and primary gross tumor volume were independent prognostic factors for OS in the training cohort. The nomogram based on these factors presented favorable prognostic efficacy in the both training and validation cohorts, with concordance statistics (C-index) of 0.622, 0.713, and area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.709, 0.739, respectively, which appeared superior to those of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system. Additionally, net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) of the nomogram presented better discrimination ability to predict survival than those of AJCC staging. Furthermore, decision curve analysis (DCA) of the nomogram exhibited greater clinical performance than that of AJCC staging. Finally, the nomogram fairly distinguished the OS rates among low, moderate, and high risk groups, whereas the OS curves of clinical stage could not be well separated among clinical AJCC stage. Conclusion We built an effective nomogram model for predicting OS of upper ESCC, which may improve clinicians’ abilities to predict individualized survival and facilitate to further stratify the management of patients at risk.

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A prognostic nomogram for overall survival after neoadjuvant radiotherapy or chemoradiotherapy in thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma: a retrospective analysis.

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