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Spatio-temporal epidemiology of Japanese encephalitis in Nepal, 2007-2015.

ABSTRACT: Japanese encephalitis (JE) is a major public health problem in Nepal. For the effective management and surveillance of JE, a clear understanding of its epidemiology is essential. Therefore, we conducted descriptive and spatial analyses to understand the spatio-temporal distribution of JE in human in Nepal. From 2007 to 2015, 1,823 JE cases were reported with a cumulative mean incidence of 0.735/100,000 population and a case fatality rate of 6.6%. The death rate in the up-to-24 years of age group was 74%. The JE cases were most commonly reported in the age group of 1-14 years. There is a strong seasonal pattern of JE occurrence in Nepal which peaked in August and declined by October each year, which corresponds to the monsoon season. The JE cases were reported in 63 of 75 districts (84%), expanding in the mountain and hill regions. There was a strong clustering of JE incidence in the south-western and south-eastern Terai region, which is endemic for JE. Therefore, the JE surveillance system should be improved to better understand the drivers of disease expansion in Nepal for instituting a control program.

SUBMITTER: Kumar Pant D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5528891 | biostudies-other | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Project description:BackgroundShifts have occurred in the epidemiological characteristics of Japanese encephalitis (JE), extending from the molecular level to the population level. The aim of this study was to investigate the seroprevalence of JE neutralizing antibodies in healthy populations from different age groups in Zhejiang Province, and to conduct mosquito monitoring to evaluate the infection rate of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) among vectors, as well as the molecular characteristics of the E gene of isolated JEV strains.Methodology/principal findingsA total of 1190 sera samples were screened by a microseroneutralization test, including 429 infants (28d-11m) and 761 participants (2y-82y). For those under 1 year old, the geometric mean titers (GMTs) of the JE neutralizing antibody was 9.49 at birth and significantly declined as the age of month increased (r = -0.225, P<0.001). For those above 1-year old, seropositive proportions were higher in subjects aged 1-3 years old as well as ≥25 years old (65%-75%), and relatively lower in subjects aged between 4-25 years old (22%-55%). Four or more years after the 2nd dose of JEV-L (first dose administered at 8 months and the second at 2 years of age), the seropositive proportion decreased to 32.5%, and GMTs decreased to 8.08. A total of 87,201 mosquitoes were collected from livestock sheds in 6 surveillance sites during 2015-2018, from which 139 E gene sequences were successfully amplified. The annual infection rate according to bias-corrected maximum likelihood estimation of JEV in Culex tritaeniorhynchus was 1.56, 2.36, 5.65 and 1.77 per 1000, respectively. JEV strains isolated during 2015-2018 all belonged to Genotype I. The E gene of amplified 139 samples differed from the JEV-L vaccine strain at fourteen amino acid residues, including the eight key residues related to virulence and virus attenuation. No divergence was observed at the sites related to antigenicity.Conclusions/significanceZhejiang Province was at a high risk of JE exposure due to relatively lower neutralizing antibody levels among the younger-aged population and higher infection rates of JEV in mosquitoes. Continuous, timely and full coverage of JE vaccination are essential, as well as the separation of human living areas and livestock shed areas. In addition, annual mosquito surveillance and periodic antibody level monitoring are important for providing evidence for improvement in JE vaccines and immunization schedules.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Given the scarcity of resources in developing countries, malaria treatment requires new strategies that target specific populations, time periods and geographical areas. While the spatial pattern of malaria transmission is known to vary depending on local conditions, its temporal evolution has yet to be evaluated. The aim of this study was to determine the spatio-temporal dynamic of malaria in the central region of Burkina Faso, taking into account meteorological factors. METHODS:Drawing on national databases, 101 health areas were studied from 2011 to 2015, together with weekly meteorological data (temperature, number of rain events, rainfall, humidity, wind speed). Meteorological factors were investigated using a principal component analysis (PCA) to reduce dimensions and avoid collinearities. The Box-Jenkins ARIMA model was used to test the stationarity of the time series. The impact of meteorological factors on malaria incidence was measured with a general additive model. A change-point analysis was performed to detect malaria transmission periods. For each transmission period, malaria incidence was mapped and hotspots were identified using spatial cluster detection. RESULTS:Malaria incidence never went below 13.7 cases/10,000 person-weeks. The first and second PCA components (constituted by rain/humidity and temperatures, respectively) were correlated with malaria incidence with a lag of 2 weeks. The impact of temperature was significantly non-linear: malaria incidence increased with temperature but declined sharply with high temperature. A significant positive linear trend was found for the entire time period. Three transmission periods were detected: low (16.8-29.9 cases/10,000 person-weeks), high (51.7-84.8 cases/10,000 person-weeks), and intermediate (26.7-32.2 cases/10,000 person-weeks). The location of clusters identified as high risk varied little across transmission periods. CONCLUSION:This study highlighted the spatial variability and relative temporal stability of malaria incidence around the capital Ouagadougou, in the central region of Burkina Faso. Despite increasing efforts in fighting the disease, malaria incidence remained high and increased over the period of study. Hotspots, particularly those detected for low transmission periods, should be investigated further to uncover the local environmental and behavioural factors of transmission, and hence to allow for the development of better targeted control strategies.

Project description:BackgroundJapanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is an important cause of encephalitis in most of Asia, with high case fatality rates and often significant neurologic sequelae among survivors. The epidemiology of JE in the Philippines is not well defined. To support consideration of JE vaccine for introduction into the national schedule in the Philippines, we conducted a systematic literature review and summarized JE surveillance data from 2011 to 2014.MethodsWe conducted searches on Japanese encephalitis and the Philippines in four databases and one library. Data from acute encephalitis syndrome (AES) and JE surveillance and from the national reference laboratory from January 2011 to March 2014 were tabulated and mapped.ResultsWe identified 29 published reports and presentations on JE in the Philippines, including 5 serologic surveys, 18 reports of clinical cases, and 8 animal studies (including two with both clinical cases and animal data). The 18 clinical studies reported 257 cases of laboratory-confirmed JE from 1972 to 2013. JE virus (JEV) was the causative agent in 7% to 18% of cases of clinical meningitis and encephalitis combined, and 16% to 40% of clinical encephalitis cases. JE predominantly affected children under 15 years of age and 6% to 7% of cases resulted in death. Surveillance data from January 2011 to March 2014 identified 73 (15%) laboratory-confirmed JE cases out of 497 cases tested.SummaryThis comprehensive review demonstrates the endemicity and extensive geographic range of JE in the Philippines, and supports the use of JE vaccine in the country. Continued and improved surveillance with laboratory confirmation is needed to systematically quantify the burden of JE, to provide information that can guide prioritization of high risk areas in the country and determination of appropriate age and schedule of vaccine introduction, and to measure the impact of preventive measures including immunization against this important public health threat.

Project description:BackgroundTo identify potential environmental drivers of Japanese Encephalitis virus (JE) transmission in Nepal, we conducted an ecological study to determine the spatial association between 2005 Nepal JE incidence, and climate, agricultural, and land-cover variables at district level.MethodsDistrict-level data on JE cases were examined using Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) analysis to identify spatial clusters from 2004 to 2008 and 2005 data was used to fit a spatial lag regression model with climate, agriculture and land-cover variables.ResultsPrior to 2006, there was a single large cluster of JE cases located in the Far-West and Mid-West terai regions of Nepal. After 2005, the distribution of JE cases in Nepal shifted with clusters found in the central hill areas. JE incidence during the 2005 epidemic had a stronger association with May mean monthly temperature and April mean monthly total precipitation compared to mean annual temperature and precipitation. A parsimonious spatial lag regression model revealed, 1) a significant negative relationship between JE incidence and April precipitation, 2) a significant positive relationship between JE incidence and percentage of irrigated land 3) a non-significant negative relationship between JE incidence and percentage of grassland cover, and 4) a unimodal non-significant relationship between JE Incidence and pig-to-human ratio.ConclusionJE cases clustered in the terai prior to 2006 where it seemed to shift to the Kathmandu region in subsequent years. The spatial pattern of JE cases during the 2005 epidemic in Nepal was significantly associated with low precipitation and the percentage of irrigated land. Despite the availability of an effective vaccine, it is still important to understand environmental drivers of JEV transmission since the enzootic cycle of JEV transmission is not likely to be totally interrupted. Understanding the spatial dynamics of JE risk factors may be useful in providing important information to the Nepal immunization program.

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Spatio-temporal epidemiology of Japanese encephalitis in Nepal, 2007-2015.

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