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Genomic Bayesian functional regression models with interactions for predicting wheat grain yield using hyper-spectral image data.

ABSTRACT: Modern agriculture uses hyperspectral cameras that provide hundreds of reflectance data at discrete narrow bands in many environments. These bands often cover the whole visible light spectrum and part of the infrared and ultraviolet light spectra. With the bands, vegetation indices are constructed for predicting agronomically important traits such as grain yield and biomass. However, since vegetation indices only use some wavelengths (referred to as bands), we propose using all bands simultaneously as predictor variables for the primary trait grain yield; results of several multi-environment maize (Aguate et al. in Crop Sci 57(5):1-8, 2017) and wheat (Montesinos-López et al. in Plant Methods 13(4):1-23, 2017) breeding trials indicated that using all bands produced better prediction accuracy than vegetation indices. However, until now, these prediction models have not accounted for the effects of genotype × environment (G × E) and band × environment (B × E) interactions incorporating genomic or pedigree information.In this study, we propose Bayesian functional regression models that take into account all available bands, genomic or pedigree information, the main effects of lines and environments, as well as G × E and B × E interaction effects. The data set used is comprised of 976 wheat lines evaluated for grain yield in three environments (Drought, Irrigated and Reduced Irrigation). The reflectance data were measured in 250 discrete narrow bands ranging from 392 to 851 nm (nm). The proposed Bayesian functional regression models were implemented using two types of basis: B-splines and Fourier. Results of the proposed Bayesian functional regression models, including all the wavelengths for predicting grain yield, were compared with results from conventional models with and without bands.We observed that the models with B × E interaction terms were the most accurate models, whereas the functional regression models (with B-splines and Fourier basis) and the conventional models performed similarly in terms of prediction accuracy. However, the functional regression models are more parsimonious and computationally more efficient because the number of beta coefficients to be estimated is 21 (number of basis), rather than estimating the 250 regression coefficients for all bands. In this study adding pedigree or genomic information did not increase prediction accuracy.

SUBMITTER: Montesinos-Lopez A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5530534 | biostudies-other | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Project description:Genomic selection (GS) is a strategy to predict the genetic merits of individuals using genome-wide markers. However, GS prediction accuracy is affected by many factors, including missing rate and minor allele frequency (MAF) of genotypic data, GS models, trait features, etc. In this study, we used one wheat population to investigate prediction accuracies of various GS models on yield and yield-related traits from various quality control (QC) scenarios, missing genotype imputation, and genome-wide association studies (GWAS)-derived markers. Missing rate and MAF of single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers were two major factors in QC. Five missing rate levels (0%, 20%, 40%, 60%, and 80%) and three MAF levels (0%, 5%, and 10%) were considered and the five-fold cross validation was used to estimate the prediction accuracy. The results indicated that a moderate missing rate level (20% to 40%) and MAF (5%) threshold provided better prediction accuracy. Under this QC scenario, prediction accuracies were further calculated for imputed and GWAS-derived markers. It was observed that the accuracies of the six traits were related to their heritability and genetic architecture, as well as the GS prediction model. Moore-Penrose generalized inverse (GenInv), ridge regression (RidgeReg), and random forest (RForest) resulted in higher prediction accuracies than other GS models across traits. Imputation of missing genotypic data had marginal effect on prediction accuracy, while GWAS-derived markers improved the prediction accuracy in most cases. These results demonstrate that QC on missing rate and MAF had positive impact on the predictability of GS models. We failed to identify one single combination of QC scenarios that could outperform the others for all traits and GS models. However, the balance between marker number and marker quality is important for the deployment of GS in wheat breeding. GWAS is able to select markers which are mostly related to traits, and therefore can be used to improve the prediction accuracy of GS.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Modern agriculture uses hyperspectral cameras to obtain hundreds of reflectance data measured at discrete narrow bands to cover the whole visible light spectrum and part of the infrared and ultraviolet light spectra, depending on the camera. This information is used to construct vegetation indices (VI) (e.g., green normalized difference vegetation index or GNDVI, simple ratio or SRa, etc.) which are used for the prediction of primary traits (e.g., biomass). However, these indices only use some bands and are cultivar-specific; therefore they lose considerable information and are not robust for all cultivars. RESULTS:This study proposes models that use all available bands as predictors to increase prediction accuracy; we compared these approaches with eight conventional vegetation indexes (VIs) constructed using only some bands. The data set we used comes from CIMMYT's global wheat program and comprises 1170 genotypes evaluated for grain yield (ton/ha) in five environments (Drought, Irrigated, EarlyHeat, Melgas and Reduced Irrigated); the reflectance data were measured in 250 discrete narrow bands ranging between 392 and 851 nm. The proposed models for the simultaneous analysis of all the bands were ordinal least square (OLS), Bayes B, principal components with Bayes B, functional B-spline, functional Fourier and functional partial least square. The results of these models were compared with the OLS performed using as predictors each of the eight VIs individually and combined. CONCLUSIONS:We found that using all bands simultaneously increased prediction accuracy more than using VI alone. The Splines and Fourier models had the best prediction accuracy for each of the nine time-points under study. Combining image data collected at different time-points led to a small increase in prediction accuracy relative to models that use data from a single time-point. Also, using bands with heritabilities larger than 0.5 only in Drought as predictor variables showed improvements in prediction accuracy.

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Project description:BackgroundGenomic selection has the potential to increase genetic gains by using molecular markers as predictors of breeding values of individuals. This study evaluated the accuracy of predictions for grain yield, heading date, plant height, and yield components in soft red winter wheat under different prediction scenarios. Response to selection for grain yield was also compared across different selection strategies- phenotypic, marker-based, genomic, combination of phenotypic and genomic, and random selections.ResultsGenomic selection was implemented through a ridge regression best linear unbiased prediction model in two scenarios- cross-validations and independent predictions. Accuracy for cross-validations was assessed using a diverse panel under different marker number, training population size, relatedness between training and validation populations, and inclusion of fixed effect in the model. The population in the first scenario was then trained and used to predict grain yield of biparental populations for independent validations. Using subsets of significant markers from association mapping increased accuracy by 64-70% for grain yield but resulted in lower accuracy for traits with high heritability such as plant height. Increasing size of training population resulted in an increase in accuracy, with maximum values reached when ~ 60% of the lines were used as a training panel. Predictions using related subpopulations also resulted in higher accuracies. Inclusion of major growth habit genes as fixed effect in the model caused increase in grain yield accuracy under a cross-validation procedure. Independent predictions resulted in accuracy ranging between - 0.14 and 0.43, dependent on the grouping of site-year data for the training and validation populations. Genomic selection was "superior" to marker-based selection in terms of response to selection for yield. Supplementing phenotypic with genomic selection resulted in approximately 10% gain in response compared to using phenotypic selection alone.ConclusionsOur results showed the effects of different factors on accuracy for yield and agronomic traits. Among the factors studied, training population size and relatedness between training and validation population had the greatest impact on accuracy. Ultimately, combining phenotypic with genomic selection would be relevant for accelerating genetic gains for yield in winter wheat.

Project description:KEY MESSAGE:Simultaneous genomic selection for grain yield, protein content and dough rheological traits enables the development of resource-use efficient varieties that combine superior yield potential with comparably high end-use quality. Selecting simultaneously for grain yield and baking quality is a major challenge in wheat breeding, and several concepts like grain protein deviations have been developed for shifting the undesirable negative correlation between both traits. The protein quality is, however, not considered in these concepts, although it is an important aspect and might facilitate the selection of genotypes that use available resources more efficiently with respect to the quantity and quality of the final end products. A population of 480 lines from an applied wheat breeding programme that was phenotyped for grain yield, protein content, protein yield and dough rheological traits was thus used to assess the potential of using integrated genomic selection indices to ease selection decisions with regard to the plethora of quality traits. Additionally, the feasibility of achieving a simultaneous genetic improvement in grain yield, protein content and protein quality was investigated to develop more resource-use efficient varieties. Dough rheological traits related to either gluten strength or viscosity were combined in two separate indices, both of which showed a substantially smaller negative trade-off with grain yield than the protein content. Genomic selection indices based on regression deviations for the two latter traits were subsequently extended by the gluten strength or viscosity indices. They revealed a large merit for identifying resource-use efficient genotypes that combine both superior yield potential with comparably high end-use quality. Hence, genomic selection opens up the opportunity for multi-trait selection in early generations, which will most likely increase the efficiency when developing new and improved varieties.

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Genomic Bayesian functional regression models with interactions for predicting wheat grain yield using hyper-spectral image data.

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