Are pertussis cases reported too late for public health interventions? Retrospective analysis of cases in London and South East England, 2010 to 2015.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Crabbe H
PROVIDER: S-EPMC5532964 | biostudies-other | 2017 Jul
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other
Similar Datasets
Project description:A testing rate for measles above 80% is required by the WHO European Region Measles Elimination strategy to verify elimination. To comply with this rate, we explored factors associated with the return of oral fluid kits (OFK) by suspected measles cases. We described the cases and conducted a mixed-effects analysis to assess the relationship between socio-demographic and public health management characteristics and the likelihood of returning an OFK to the reference laboratory. Of 3,929 cases who were sent a postal OFK, 2,513 (67%) returned the kit. Adjusting for confounding, registration with a general practitioner (GP) (aOR:1.48, 95%CI:1.23-1.76) and living in a less deprived area (aOR:1.35, 95%CI:1.04-1.74) were associated with an increased likelihood of returning the OFK. The odds of returning the OFK also increased if the HPT contacted the parents/guardians of all cases prior to sending the kit and confirmed their address (aOR:2.01, 95%CI:1.17-3.42). Cases notified by a hospital (aOR:1.94, 95%CI:1.31-2.87) or GP (aOR:1.52; 95%CI:1.06-2.16) also had higher odds of returning the OFK. HPTs may want to consider these factors when managing suspected cases of measles since this may help in increasing the testing rates to the WHO-recommended level.
| S-EPMC10369437 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSeasonality in tuberculosis (TB) has been described, especially in children. However, few studies have assessed seasonality of TB in the equatorial region, and none in children.ObjectivesTo assess for seasonality of childhood TB cases in Kampala, Uganda, and determine the role of temperature, rainfall patterns, and influenza cases on TB diagnoses.MethodsWe retrospectively analyzed demographic and clinical data of children (under 15 years) diagnosed with TB at a pediatric TB clinic in Kampala, Uganda from 2010 to 2015. We performed decomposition analysis of the monthly case time series to assess seasonality. We compared monthly mean plots and performed Poisson regression to assess any association between TB diagnoses and temperature, rainfall, and influenza.ResultsOf the 713 childhood TB cases diagnosed at the clinic, 609 (85%) were clinically diagnosed and 492 (69%) were pulmonary cases. There were minimal monthly variations in TB cases, with a trough in December and peaks in July and October, but there was no significant seasonality. Temperature variations did not show a clear pattern with TB diagnoses. Rainfall alternated with TB diagnoses in the first half of the year, but then overlapped in the second half and was significantly associated with TB diagnoses. Influenza cases were significantly related to TB diagnoses with (β = 0.05, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.09, p = 0.01) or without (β = 0.06, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.1, p = 0.01) rainfall, and had particular overlap with pulmonary TB cases.ConclusionsSeasonal variations in childhood TB diagnoses were non-significant. Temperature did not have a clear pattern with TB diagnoses, but rainfall and influenza cases correlated with the primarily clinically diagnosed childhood TB cases.
| S-EPMC6456174 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We determined the genotypes of seven Bacillus anthracis strains that were recovered from nine anthrax outbreaks in North-East China from 2010 to 2014, and two approved vaccine strains that are currently in use in China. The causes of these cases were partly due to local farmers being unaware of the presence of anthrax, and butchers with open wounds having direct contact with anthrax-contaminated meat products. The genotype of five of the seven recovered strains was A.Br.001/002 sub-lineage, which was concordant with previously published research. The remaining two cases belongs to the A.Br.Ames sub-lineage. Both of these strains displayed an identical SNR pattern, which was the first time that this genotype was identified in North-East China. Strengthening education in remote villages of rural China is an important activity aimed at fostering attempts to prevent and control anthrax. The genotype of the vaccine strain Anthrax Spore Vaccine No.II was A.Br.008/009 and A.Br.001/002 for the vaccine strain Anthrax Spore Vaccine Non-capsulated. Further studies of their characteristics are clearly warranted.
| S-EPMC4550413 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Recurrence of TB in an individual can occur due to relapse of the same strain or reinfection by a different strain. The contribution of reinfection and relapse to TB incidence, and the factors associated with each are unknown. We aimed to quantify and describe cases attributable to relapse or reinfection, and identify associated risk factors in order to reduce recurrence. We categorised recurrent TB cases from notifications in London (2002-2015) as relapse or reinfection using molecular (MIRU VNTR strain type) and epidemiological information (hierarchical approach using time since notification, site of disease and method of case finding). Factors associated with each outcome were determined using logistic regression in Stata Version 13.1 (2009-2015 only). Of 43,465 TB cases, 1.4% (618) were classified as relapse and 3.8% (1,637) as reinfection. The proportion with relapse decreased from 2002 (2.3%) to 2015 (1.3%), while the proportion of reinfection remained around 4%. Relapse was more common among recent migrants (<1 year, odds ratio (OR) = 1.99, p = 0.005), those with a social risk factor (OR = 1.51, p = 0.033) and those with central nervous system, spinal, miliary or disseminated TB (OR = 1.75, p = 0.001). Reinfection was more common among long term migrants (>11 years, OR = 1.67, p = <0.001), those with a social risk factor (OR = 1.96, p = <0.001) and within specific areas in London. Patients with social risk factors were at increased risk of both relapse and reinfection. Characterising those with relapsed disease highlights patients at risk and factors associated with reinfection suggest groups where transmission is occurring. This will inform TB control programs to target appropriate treatment and interventions in order to reduce the risk of recurrence.
| S-EPMC6377187 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundReliance on national figures may be underestimating the extent of mental ill health in urban communities. This study demonstrates the necessity for local information on common mental disorder (CMD) and substance use by comparing data from the South East London Community Health (SELCoH) study with those from a national study, the 2007 English Adult Psychiatric Morbidity Study (APMS).Methodology/principal findingsData were used from two cross-sectional surveys, 1698 men and women residing in south London and 7403 men and women in England. The main outcome, CMD, was indicated by a score of 12 or above on the Revised Clinical Interview Schedule. Secondary outcomes included hazardous alcohol use and illicit drug use. SELCoH sample prevalence estimates of CMD were nearly twice that of the APMS England sample estimates. There was a four-fold greater proportion of depressive episode in the SELCoH sample than the APMS sample. The prevalence of hazardous alcohol use was higher in the national sample. Illicit drug use in the past year was higher in the SELCoH sample, with cannabis and cocaine the illicit drugs reported most frequently in both samples. In comparisons of the SELCoH sample with the APMS England sample and the APMS sample from the Greater London area in combined datasets, these differences remained after adjusting for socio-demographic and socioeconomic indicators for all outcomes.Conclusions/significanceLocal information for estimating the prevalence of CMD and substance use is essential for surveillance and service planning. There were similarities in the demographic and socioeconomic factors related to CMD and substance use across samples.
| S-EPMC3520993 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The National Health Service (NHS) Pathways triage system collates data on enquiries to 111 and 999 services in England. Since the 18th of March 2020, these data have been made publically available for potential COVID-19 symptoms self-reported by members of the public. Trends in such reports over time are likely to reflect behaviour of the ongoing epidemic within the wider community, potentially capturing valuable information across a broader severity profile of cases than hospital admission data. We present a fully reproducible analysis of temporal trends in NHS Pathways reports until 14th May 2020, nationally and regionally, and demonstrate that rates of growth/decline and effective reproduction number estimated from these data may be useful in monitoring transmission. This is a particularly pressing issue as lockdown restrictions begin to be lifted and evidence of disease resurgence must be constantly reassessed. We further assess the correlation between NHS Pathways reports and a publicly available NHS dataset of COVID-19-associated deaths in England, finding that enquiries to 111/999 were strongly associated with daily deaths reported 16 days later. Our results highlight the potential of NHS Pathways as the basis of an early warning system. However, this dataset relies on self-reported symptoms, which are at risk of being severely biased. Further detailed work is therefore necessary to investigate potential behavioural issues which might otherwise explain our conclusions.
| S-EPMC8007605 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionThis paper examines one of the NHS England Pioneers programmes of Integrated Care, which was implemented in three localities in East London, covering the area served by one of the largest hospital groups in the UK and bringing together commissioners, providers and local authorities. The partners agreed to build a model of integrated care that focused on the whole person. This qualitative and participatory evaluation looked at how an ambitious vision translated into the delivery of integrated care on the ground. The study explored the micro-mechanisms of integrated care relationships based on the experience of health and social care professionals working in acute and community care settings.MethodsWe employed a participatory approach, the Researcher in Residence model, whereby the researcher was embedded in the organisations she evaluated and worked alongside managers and clinicians to build collaboration across the full range of stakeholders, develop shared learning, and find common ground through competing interests, while trying to address power imbalances. A number of complementary qualitative methods of data generation were used, including documentary analysis, participant observations, semi-structured interviews, and coproduction workshops with frontline health and social care professionals to interpret the data and develop recommendations.ResultsOur fieldwork exposed persistent organisational fragmentation, despite the dominant rhetoric of integration and efforts to build a shared vision at senior governance levels. The evaluation identified several important themes, including: a growing barrier between acute and community services; a persisting difficulty experienced by health and social care staff in working together because of professional and cultural differences, as well as conflicting organisational priorities and guidelines; and a lack of capacity and support to deliver a genuine multidisciplinary approach in practice, despite the ethos of multiagency being embraced widely.DiscussionBy focusing on professionals' working routines, we detailed how and why action taken by organisational leaders failed to have tangible impact. The inability to align organisational priorities and guidelines on the ground, as well as a failure to acknowledge the impact of structural incentives for organisations to compete at the expense of cooperation, in a context of limited financial and human resources, acted as barriers to more coordinated working. Within an environment of continuous reconfigurations, staff were often confused about the functions of new services and did not feel they had influence on change processes. Investing in a genuine bottom-up approach could ensure that the range of activities needed to generate system-wide cultural transformation reflect the capacity of the organisations and systems and address genuine local needs.LimitationsThe authors acknowledge several limitations of this study, including the focus on one geographical area, East London, and the timing of the evaluation, with several new interventions and programmes introduced more or less simultaneously. Some of the intermediate care services under evaluation were still at pilot stage and some teams were undergoing new reconfigurations, reflecting the fast-pace of change of the past decade. This created confusion at times, for instance when discussing specific roles and activities with participants. We tried to address some of these challenges by organising several workshops with different teams to co-interpret and discuss the findings.
| S-EPMC7597578 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Pertussis has resurfaced in the UK, with incidence levels not seen since the 1980s. While the fundamental causes of this resurgence remain the subject of much conjecture, the study of historical patterns of pathogen diffusion can be illuminating. Here, we examined time series of pertussis incidence in the boroughs of Greater London from 1982 to 2013 to document the spatial epidemiology of this bacterial infection and to identify the potential drivers of its percolation. The incidence of pertussis over this period is characterized by 3 distinct stages: a period exhibiting declining trends with 4-year inter-epidemic cycles from 1982 to 1994, followed by a deep trough until 2006 and the subsequent resurgence. We observed systematic temporal trends in the age distribution of cases and the fade-out profile of pertussis coincident with increasing national vaccine coverage from 1982 to 1990. To quantify the hierarchy of epidemic phases across the boroughs of London, we used the Hilbert transform. We report a consistent pattern of spatial organization from 1982 to the early 1990s, with some boroughs consistently leading epidemic waves and others routinely lagging. To determine the potential drivers of these geographic patterns, a comprehensive parallel database of borough-specific features was compiled, comprising of demographic, movement and socio-economic factors that were used in statistical analyses to predict epidemic phase relationships among boroughs. Specifically, we used a combination of a feed-forward neural network (FFNN), and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values to quantify the contribution of each covariate to model predictions. Our analyses identified a number of predictors of a borough's historical epidemic phase, specifically the age composition of households, the number of agricultural and skilled manual workers, latitude, the population of public transport commuters and high-occupancy households. Univariate regression analysis of the 2012 epidemic identified the ratio of cumulative unvaccinated children to the total population and population of Pakistan-born population to have moderate positive and negative association, respectively, with the timing of epidemic. In addition to providing a comprehensive overview of contemporary pertussis transmission in a large metropolitan population, this study has identified the characteristics that determine the spatial spread of this bacterium across the boroughs of London.
| S-EPMC9041754 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background:Influenza-associated encephalopathy (IAE) can result in severe neurologic disease with high mortality. Most IAE cases are reported among children worldwide. Understanding of IAE among adults is limited. Methods:Data were collected on IAE cases reported through the National Epidemiological Surveillance of Infectious Diseases database in Japan from 2010 through 2015. IAE cases were stratified by age category and analyzed using descriptive statistics to assess differences in characteristics and outcomes. Results:Among 385 IAE cases, median age at diagnosis was 7 years (range, 0-90), and 283 (74%) were aged <18 years. Mean seasonal incidence of IAE cases among children and adults (aged ≥18 years) was 2.83 and 0.19 cases per 1000000 population, respectively. IAE incidence did not vary by predominant influenza A virus subtype. IAE frequency was highest in school-aged (5-12 years) children (38%), followed by children aged 2-4 years (21%) and adults aged 18-49 years (11%). The proportion of cases with seizures was more common in children. There were more cases with cerebrospinal fluid pleocytosis among adults than in children (P < .01), especially among those aged 18-49 (17%) and 50-64 (19%) years. Case fatality proportion was highest in those aged 40-64 (17%) and ≥65 (20%) years. Conclusions:We found differences in the clinical features of IAE between adults and children in Japan. Although IAE incidence was higher in children, mortality was higher in adults. Efforts are needed to prevent and improve survival of patients with IAE, especially in adults.
| S-EPMC5982813 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveThe Plan of Information on Acute Respiratory Infections in Catalonia (PIDIRAC) included the surveillance of severe hospitalized cases of laboratory-confirmed influenza (SHCLCI) in 2009. The objective of this study was to determine the clinical, epidemiological and virological features of SHCLCI recorded in 12 sentinel hospitals during five influenza seasons.ResultsFrom a sample of SHCLCI recorded during the 5 influenza epidemics seasons from 2010-2011 to 2014-2015, Cases were confirmed by PCR and/or viral isolation in cell cultures from respiratory samples. A total of 1400 SHCLCI were recorded, 33% required ICU admission and 12% died. The median age of cases was 61 years (range 0-101 years); 70.5% were unvaccinated; 80.4% received antiviral treatment (in 79.6 and 24% of cases within 48 h after hospital admission and the onset of symptoms, respectively); influenza virus A [37.9% A (H1N1)pdm09, 29.3% A (H3N2)] was identified in 87.7% of cases. Surveillance of SHCLCI provides an estimate of the severity of seasonal influenza epidemics and the identification and characterization of at-risk groups in order to facilitate preventive measures such as vaccination and early antiviral treatment.
| S-EPMC5899835 | biostudies-literature