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A nonparametric Bayesian method of translating machine learning scores to probabilities in clinical decision support.

ABSTRACT: Probabilistic assessments of clinical care are essential for quality care. Yet, machine learning, which supports this care process has been limited to categorical results. To maximize its usefulness, it is important to find novel approaches that calibrate the ML output with a likelihood scale. Current state-of-the-art calibration methods are generally accurate and applicable to many ML models, but improved granularity and accuracy of such methods would increase the information available for clinical decision making. This novel non-parametric Bayesian approach is demonstrated on a variety of data sets, including simulated classifier outputs, biomedical data sets from the University of California, Irvine (UCI) Machine Learning Repository, and a clinical data set built to determine suicide risk from the language of emergency department patients.The method is first demonstrated on support-vector machine (SVM) models, which generally produce well-behaved, well understood scores. The method produces calibrations that are comparable to the state-of-the-art Bayesian Binning in Quantiles (BBQ) method when the SVM models are able to effectively separate cases and controls. However, as the SVM models' ability to discriminate classes decreases, our approach yields more granular and dynamic calibrated probabilities comparing to the BBQ method. Improvements in granularity and range are even more dramatic when the discrimination between the classes is artificially degraded by replacing the SVM model with an ad hoc k-means classifier.The method allows both clinicians and patients to have a more nuanced view of the output of an ML model, allowing better decision making. The method is demonstrated on simulated data, various biomedical data sets and a clinical data set, to which diverse ML methods are applied. Trivially extending the method to (non-ML) clinical scores is also discussed.

SUBMITTER: Connolly B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5545857 | biostudies-other | 2017 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Project description:IntroductionChronic musculoskeletal pain is a prevalent condition impacting around 20% of people globally; resulting in patients living with pain, fatigue, restricted social and employment capacity, and reduced quality of life. Interdisciplinary multimodal pain treatment programs have been shown to provide positive outcomes by supporting patients modify their behavior and improve pain management through focusing attention on specific patient valued goals rather than fighting pain.MethodsGiven the complex nature of chronic pain there is no single clinical measure to assess outcomes from multimodal pain programs. Using Centre for Integral Rehabilitation data from 2019-2021 (n = 2,364), we developed a multidimensional machine learning framework of 13 outcome measures across 5 clinically relevant domains including activity/disability, pain, fatigue, coping and quality of life. Machine learning models for each endpoint were separately trained using the most important 30 of 55 demographic and baseline variables based on minimum redundancy maximum relevance feature selection. Five-fold cross validation identified best performing algorithms which were rerun on deidentified source data to verify prognostic accuracy.ResultsIndividual algorithm performance ranged from 0.49 to 0.65 AUC reflecting characteristic outcome variation across patients, and unbalanced training data with high positive proportions of up to 86% for some measures. As expected, no single outcome provided a reliable indicator, however the complete set of algorithms established a stratified prognostic patient profile. Patient level validation achieved consistent prognostic assessment of outcomes for 75.3% of the study group (n = 1,953). Clinician review of a sample of predicted negative patients (n = 81) independently confirmed algorithm accuracy and suggests the prognostic profile is potentially valuable for patient selection and goal setting.DiscussionThese results indicate that although no single algorithm was individually conclusive, the complete stratified profile consistently identified patient outcomes. Our predictive profile provides promising positive contribution for clinicians and patients to assist with personalized assessment and goal setting, program engagement and improved patient outcomes.

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A nonparametric Bayesian method of translating machine learning scores to probabilities in clinical decision support.

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