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Future demand for formal long-term care in Sweden.

ABSTRACT: Ageing population will have a significant effect on demand for human resources in health care and social care for the older people. Here we are presenting, using different scenarios, how projected demographic development may influence the demand for formal long-term care (LTC) for the people older than 65 years in Sweden 2000-2030. Our method uses information on utilisation of current services per gender and age group, demographic projections of number of older people per gender and age group and assumptions on health status changes per gender and age group. Our assumptions on health status changes were based on estimates from Swedish National Survey of Living Conditions, covering 32,502 observations during the period 1975-1999. The assumption that trends in severe ill-health in Sweden between 1975 and 1999 will continue (meaning expected improvements in age/gender-specific health and functional ability among the older people) results in the projected increase in the demand by year 2030 being almost halved, compared with an estimate that is based on unchanged age/gender-specific health and functional ability. The assessment of future demand for LTC for the people older than 65 years should involve extrapolations based on expected changes in health status, as well as the question how decreasing mortality incorporated into population forecasts is to be associated with future trends on severe morbidity/disability.

SUBMITTER: Batljan I

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5546343 | biostudies-other | 2005 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Project description:BackgroundAs in most fields of health care, societal and political changes encourage suppliers of long-term care to put their clients at the center of care and service provision and become more responsive towards client needs and requirements. However, the diverse, multiple and dynamic nature of demand for long-term care complicates the movement towards demand-based care provision. This paper aims to advance long-term care practice and, to that end, examines the application of modularity. This concept is recognized in a wide range of product and service settings for its ability to design demand-based products and processes.MethodsStarting from the basic dimensions of modularity, we use qualitative research to explore the use and application of modularity principles in the current working practices and processes of four organizations in the field of long-term care for the elderly. In-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted with 38 key informants and triangulated with document research and observation. Data was analyzed thematically by means of coding and subsequent exploration of patterns. Data analysis was facilitated by qualitative analysis software.ResultsOur data suggest that a modular setup of supply is employed in the arrangement of care and service supply and assists providers of long-term care in providing their clients with choice options and variation. In addition, modularization of the needs assessment and package specification process allows the case organizations to manage client involvement but still provide customized packages of care and services.ConclusionThe adequate setup of an organization's supply and its specification phase activities are indispensible for long-term care providers who aim to do better in terms of quality and efficiency. Moreover, long-term care providers could benefit from joint provision of care and services by means of modular working teams. Based upon our findings, we are able to elaborate on how to further enable demand-based provision of long-term care by means of modularity.

Project description:BackgroundIt is unclear how formal long-term care (LTC) availability affects formal /informal caregiving patterns and caregiver health. We tested the impact of reduced formal LTC availability on formal LTC service use, intensity of informal caregiving, and caregiver health.MethodsUsing a representative, repeated cross-sectional sample of Japanese caregivers providing care to co-resident family members from 2001 to 2016, we applied a difference-in-differences approach by observing caregivers before and after the major reform of the public Japanese LTC insurance (LTCI) in 2006. The reform reduced coverage benefits for non-institutionalized older persons with low care needs, but not for those with high care needs. We analyzed 12,764 caregivers aged ?30?years (mean age 64.3?±?11.8?years, 73.5% women) and measured indicators of formal LTC use, hours of informal caregiving, and caregiver self-reported health outcomes after propensity score matching to balance caregivers' background characteristics.ResultsWe found the 2006 LTCI reform relatively reduced the use of formal LTC services and relatively increased the percentage of experiencing long hours of informal caregiving (>?3?h per day) among the caregivers for seniors with low care needs compared to those for seniors with high care needs. The effects of the LTCI reform for the caregivers for seniors with low care needs were 2.2 percentage point higher on caregivers' experiencing poor self-rated health (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.7-3.7; p?=?0.01), 2.7 percentage point higher on experiencing symptoms of a depressive state (95%CI: 0.5-4.8; p?=?0.03), and 4.7 percentage point higher on experiencing symptoms of musculoskeletal diseases (95%CI, 3.6-5.7; p?<?0.001), compared to those for seniors with high care needs.ConclusionsReduced formal care availability under the Japanese LTCI reform increased hours of informal caregiving corresponding to reduced use of formal LTC and deteriorated multiple dimensions of caregiver health. Our findings may highlight the importance of enhancing the availability of formal LTC services for caregiver health.

Project description:BackgroundThe majority of frail elderly who live in long-term care (LTC) are not treated for osteoporosis despite their high risk for fragility fractures. Clinical Practice Guidelines for the diagnosis and management of osteoporosis provide guidance for the management of individuals 50 years and older at risk for fractures, however, they cannot benefit LTC residents if physicians perceive barriers to their application. Our objectives are to explore current practices to fracture risk assessment by LTC physicians and describe barriers to applying the recently published Osteoporosis Canada practice guidelines for fracture assessment and prevention in LTC.MethodsA cross-sectional survey was conducted with the Ontario Long-Term Care Physicians Association using an online questionnaire. The survey included questions that addressed members' attitudes, knowledge, and behaviour with respect to fracture risk assessment in LTC. Closed-ended responses were analyzed using descriptive statistics and thematic framework analysis for open-ended responses.ResultsWe contacted 347 LTC physicians; 25% submitted completed surveys (81% men, mean age 60 (Standard Deviation [SD] 11) years, average 32 [SD 11] years in practice). Of the surveyed physicians, 87% considered prevention of fragility fractures to be important, but a minority (34%) reported using validated fracture risk assessment tools, while 33% did not use any. Clinical risk factors recommended by the OC guidelines for assessing fracture risk considered applicable included; glucocorticoid use (99%), fall history (93%), age (92%), and fracture history (91%). Recommended clinical measurements considered applicable included: weight (84%), thyroid-stimulating hormone (78%) and creatinine (73%) measurements, height (61%), and Get-Up-and-Go test (60%). Perceived barriers to assessing fracture risk included difficulty acquiring necessary information, lack of access to tests (bone mineral density, x-rays) or obtaining medical history; resource constraints, and a sentiment that assessing fracture risk is futile in this population because of short life expectancy and polypharmacy.ConclusionPerceived barriers to fracture risk assessment and osteoporosis management in LTC have not changed recently, contributing in part to the ongoing care gap in osteoporosis management. Our findings highlight the importance to adapt guidelines to be applicable to the LTC environment, and to develop partnerships with stakeholders to facilitate their use in clinical practice.

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Future demand for formal long-term care in Sweden.

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