Project description:We developed an agent-based stochastic model expressing stage-specific phenology and population dynamics for an insect species across geographic regions. We used the invasive pentatomid, Halyomorpha halys, as the model organism because gaps in knowledge exist regarding its developmental physiology, it is expanding its global distribution, and it is of significant economic importance. Model predictions were compared against field observations over 3 years, and the parameter set that enables the largest population growth was applied to eight locations over 10 years, capturing the variation in temperature and photoperiod profiles of significant horticultural crop production that could be affected by H. halys in the US. As a species that overwinters as adults, critical photoperiod significantly impacted H. halys seasonality and population size through its influence on diapause termination and induction, and this may impact other insects with similar life-histories. Photoperiod and temperature interactions influenced life stage synchrony among years, resulting in an order of magnitude difference, for occurrence of key life stages. At all locations, there was a high degree of overlap among life stages and generation. Although all populations produced F2 adults and thus could be characterized as bivoltine, the size and relative contribution of each generation to the total, or overwintering, adult population also varied dramatically. In about half of the years in two locations (Geneva, NY and Salem, OR), F1 adults comprised half or more of the adult population at the end of the year. Yearly degree-day accumulation was a significant covariate influencing variation in population growth, and average maximum adult population size varied by 10-fold among locations. Average final population growth was positive (Asheville, NC, Homestead, FL, Davis, CA) or marginal (Geneva, NY, Bridgeton, NJ, Salem, OR, Riverside, CA), but was negative in one location (Wenatchee WA) due to cooler temperatures coupled with timing of vitellogenesis of F2 adults. Years of the highest population growth in the mid-Atlantic site coincided with years of highest crop damage reports. We discuss these results with respect to assumptions and critical knowledge gaps, the ability to realistically model phenology of species with strongly overlapping life stage and which diapause as adults.

Project description:The effects of winter chilling, spring forcing temperature, and photoperiod on spring phenology are well known for many European and North American species, but the environmental cues that regulate the spring phenology of East Asian species have not yet been thoroughly investigated. Here, we conducted a growth chamber experiment to test the effects of chilling (controlled by different lengths of exposure to natural chilling conditions), forcing temperature (12, 15, or 18°C) and photoperiod (14 or 10 h) on first flowering date (FFD) of six woody species (three shrubs and three trees) native to East Asia. The three-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) separately for each species showed that the effects of chilling and forcing temperature were significant for almost all species (P < 0.05). Averaged over all chilling and photoperiod treatments, the number of days until FFD decreased by 2.3-36.1 days when the forcing temperature increased by 3°C. More chilling days reduced the time to FFD by 0.7-26 days, when averaged over forcing and photoperiod treatments. A longer photoperiod could advance the FFD by 1.0-5.6 days, on average, but its effect was only significant for two species (including one tree and one shrub). The effects of forcing temperature and photoperiod interacted with chilling for half of the studied species, being stronger in the low chilling than high chilling treatment. These results could be explained by the theory and model of growing degree-days (GDD). Increased exposure to chilling coupled to a longer photoperiod reduced the GDD requirement for FFD, especially when plants grew under low chilling conditions. However, shrubs (except Viburnum dilatatum) had lower chilling and heat requirements than trees, suggesting that, by leafing out sooner, they engage in a more opportunistic life strategy to maximize their growing season, especially before canopy closure from trees' foliage. Our results confirmed the varying effects of these three cues on the flowering phenology of woody species native to East Asia. In future climate change scenarios, spring warming is likely to advance the spring phenology of those woody species, although the reduced chilling and shorter photoperiod may partly offset this spring warming effect.

Project description:Variability of ephemeral resources provided by woody plants is related to fluctuating environmental conditions, specifically the predominant climate variables temperature and rainfall. Photoperiod has less impact but also plays a role in the onset of resource pulses. In the seasonally affected bushveld of southern Africa, declining resources could have dire consequences to various animals that depend on these resources. Understanding the impact that rainfall, temperature and photoperiod has on woody plant resources allows managers of natural areas to plan for times when resources are scarce. Using a series of General Linear Models, this baseline study investigates the effects that these variables have on flower production, numbers of new fruit/pods and numbers of new leaves for 113 tagged trees from 26 woody plant species. Leads, lags and coincidental relationships observed between environmental predictor and phenological response variables were explored using time-series cross-correlations and concomitant correlograms. Model results indicated that temperature was the predominant indicator for flowering, with initial flowering starting when temperatures increase in September. A significant lead was observed between flowering and rainfall, suggesting that flower numbers increase approximately one month before rainfall increases. Temperature had the biggest effect on the number of species with new fruits and pods. Significant lags were observed between new fruits and pods and all environmental variables investigated, indicating that these resources depend on rainfall, temperature and photoperiod to reach their full potential. Photoperiod, temperature and the interaction between these variables had a noticeable effect on the number of species with new leaves. Peaks in species with new leaves coincide with peaks in rainfall, temperature and photoperiod. No leading or lagging indicators were observed between new leaves and the environmental variables investigated. In areas containing wildlife populations, recommendations are to undertake regular monitoring of climatic variables investigated, and the ephemeral resources on woody plant species.

Project description:The greenhouse whitefly Trialeurodes vaporariorum Westwood (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) is a serious pest of many fruits, vegetables and ornamental crops in sub-tropical regions and in greenhouses worldwide. Potato is a secondary host of the species but the major threat from this insect in the Andean region for potato is the transmission by this insect of a crinivirus causing Potato yellow vein disease. Determination of the pest's temperature-dependent population growth potential is crucial knowledge for understanding the population dynamics and spread potential of the species and the diseases it can transmit, as well as for designing effective pest management strategies. Trialeurodes vaporariorum development, mortality and reproduction were studied at seven constant temperatures ranging from 10 to 32 °C. The Insect Life Cycle Modeling (ILCYM) software was used to fit nonlinear equations to the data and establish an overall phenology model to simulate life-table parameters based on temperature. In addition, life tables of T. vaporariorium were established at daily fluctuating temperature in two different environments: Cusco (5 °C-35 °C) and La Molina, Lima (13.7 °C-24.9 °C), and used to adjust and validate the model. The insect only completed its life cycle at constant temperatures above 15 °C and below 32 °C although the cycle was completed at daily fluctuating temperatures between 5 °C and 35 °C. The overall model portrayed population development within the temperature range of 14° to 32 °C with a maximum finite rate of population increase (= 1.14) at 23 °C. However, the model revealed poor convergence with life tables established at fluctuating temperatures indicating an influential effect of temperature fluctuations on the whitefly life history parameters, particularly on adult survival time and reproduction. Therefore, we adjusted the model for convergence with a single life table observed at fluctuating temperature. The adjusted model gave good predictions when compared with remaining observed life tables and published data. The adjusted model predicted population development within the temperature range of 11.5 °C-35.5 °C, and maximum population growth at around 24 °C with a finite rate of increase, λ, of 1.137 and a population doubling time of 5 days. The established process-based physiological model presented here for T. vaporariorum can be used for predicting the species distribution potential based on temperature worldwide and should prove helpful in adjusting pest management measures. Moreover, the information obtained will be used to predict the spread potential of potato yellow vein disease.

Dataset Information

Corrigendum: Coupling Developmental Physiology, Photoperiod, and Temperature to Model Phenology and Dynamics of an Invasive Heteropteran, Halyomorpha halys.

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