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Short-term prediction of solar energy in Saudi Arabia using automated-design fuzzy logic systems.

ABSTRACT: Solar energy is considered as one of the main sources for renewable energy in the near future. However, solar energy and other renewable energy sources have a drawback related to the difficulty in predicting their availability in the near future. This problem affects optimal exploitation of solar energy, especially in connection with other resources. Therefore, reliable solar energy prediction models are essential to solar energy management and economics. This paper presents work aimed at designing reliable models to predict the global horizontal irradiance (GHI) for the next day in 8 stations in Saudi Arabia. The designed models are based on computational intelligence methods of automated-design fuzzy logic systems. The fuzzy logic systems are designed and optimized with two models using fuzzy c-means clustering (FCM) and simulated annealing (SA) algorithms. The first model uses FCM based on the subtractive clustering algorithm to automatically design the predictor fuzzy rules from data. The second model is using FCM followed by simulated annealing algorithm to enhance the prediction accuracy of the fuzzy logic system. The objective of the predictor is to accurately predict next-day global horizontal irradiance (GHI) using previous-day meteorological and solar radiation observations. The proposed models use observations of 10 variables of measured meteorological and solar radiation data to build the model. The experimentation and results of the prediction are detailed where the root mean square error of the prediction was approximately 88% for the second model tuned by simulated annealing compared to 79.75% accuracy using the first model. This results demonstrate a good modeling accuracy of the second model despite that the training and testing of the proposed models were carried out using spatially and temporally independent data.

SUBMITTER: Almaraashi M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5555569 | biostudies-other | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Project description:BackgroundThe COVID-19 prevention and control constantly affects lives worldwide. In this paper, household medical products were analyzed using fuzzy logic. Considering the household anti-epidemic status, economic and environmental benefits, the adaptable design method of anti-epidemic products in the vestibule was proposed. The measure of adaptable design method still have shortcomings. Therefore, an improved method that is based on fuzzy logic programming is required.MethodFirstly, common medical product types used in vestibules and household anti-epidemic products were identified and summarized into product sets. Then matching degree matrix was obtained by functional configuration decomposition and matching calculations. Secondly, experts were invited to evaluate the paired comparative probability matrices and linguistic variables, and the evaluation data were converted by trapezoidal membership functions, fuzzy numbers and the defuzzification method to obtain the usage probability values (PR) for product functions. Finally, the matching degree value (P) and the product function (PF) were calculated by adaptability measure formula, and product function, the adaptability factor and the adaptability (A) were obtained.Results and discussionOur results show that the degree of adaptability of each product function in the product set from PF1 to PF10can be evaluated. Based on the principles of sorting of values from high to low, the top five PF (n = 10) for P value is PF10, PF5, PF6, PF8 and PF1; The top five PF for P value is PF2, PF1, PF3, PF7 and PF8; The top five PF for A value is PF2(0.242), PF1(0.232), PF5(0.225), PF8(0.222) and PF3(0.221). These values allow us to summarize and draw visual charts according to the above data sorting mode. The higher the value of the product function, the more it can be prioritized for design development with functional cost savings, simplification or clustering.ConclusionThis study proposes an adaptable design method based on fuzzy logic programming. The data results in this study can guide the development and programming of the vestibule anti-epidemic products. The higher adaptability value of a product function indicates that it is more capable of being simplified, clustered, and adapting to changes in the product set.

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Short-term prediction of solar energy in Saudi Arabia using automated-design fuzzy logic systems.

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