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Assessment of the role of ageing and non-ageing factors in death from non-communicable diseases based on a cumulative frequency model.

ABSTRACT: To quantify the effects of ageing and non-ageing factors, a characterization of the effects of ageing, genetic, and exogenous variables on 12 major non-communicable diseases was evaluated using a model assessing cumulative frequency of death and survival by age group from dead and surviving populations based on mortality statistics. Indices (0-1) of the roles of ageing (ARD), genetics (GRD) and exogenous (ERD) variables in deaths due to disease were established, and the sum of ARD, GRD and ERD was 1 (value of each indices was <1). Results showed that ageing plays an important role in death from chronic disease; exogenous factors may contribute more to the pattern of chronic disease than genetic factors (ARD, GRC and ERD were 0.818, 0.058 and 0.124 respectively for all non-communicable diseases). In descending order, ERD for non-communicable diseases were breast cancer, leukaemia, cancer of the cervix uteri and uterus, liver cancer, nephritis and nephropathy, stomach cancer, lung cancer, diabetes, cerebrovascular disease, coronary heart disease, COPD, and Alzheimer's disease, while a smaller ERD indicated a tendency of natural death. An understanding of the aforementioned complex relationships of specific non-communicable diseases will be beneficial in designing primary prevention measures for non-communicable diseases in China.

SUBMITTER: Hui L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5557977 | biostudies-other | 2017 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Project description:BackgroundThe population of Japan has achieved the longest life expectancy in the world. To further improve population health, consistent and comparative evidence on mortality attributable to preventable risk factors is necessary for setting priorities for health policies and programs. Although several past studies have quantified the impact of individual risk factors in Japan, to our knowledge no study has assessed and compared the effects of multiple modifiable risk factors for non-communicable diseases and injuries using a standard framework. We estimated the effects of 16 risk factors on cause-specific deaths and life expectancy in Japan.Methods and findingsWe obtained data on risk factor exposures from the National Health and Nutrition Survey and epidemiological studies, data on the number of cause-specific deaths from vital records adjusted for ill-defined codes, and data on relative risks from epidemiological studies and meta-analyses. We applied a comparative risk assessment framework to estimate effects of excess risks on deaths and life expectancy at age 40 y. In 2007, tobacco smoking and high blood pressure accounted for 129,000 deaths (95% CI: 115,000-154,000) and 104,000 deaths (95% CI: 86,000-119,000), respectively, followed by physical inactivity (52,000 deaths, 95% CI: 47,000-58,000), high blood glucose (34,000 deaths, 95% CI: 26,000-43,000), high dietary salt intake (34,000 deaths, 95% CI: 27,000-39,000), and alcohol use (31,000 deaths, 95% CI: 28,000-35,000). In recent decades, cancer mortality attributable to tobacco smoking has increased in the elderly, while stroke mortality attributable to high blood pressure has declined. Life expectancy at age 40 y in 2007 would have been extended by 1.4 y for both sexes (men, 95% CI: 1.3-1.6; women, 95% CI: 1.2-1.7) if exposures to multiple cardiovascular risk factors had been reduced to their optimal levels as determined by a theoretical-minimum-risk exposure distribution.ConclusionsTobacco smoking and high blood pressure are the two major risk factors for adult mortality from non-communicable diseases and injuries in Japan. There is a large potential population health gain if multiple risk factors are jointly controlled.

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Assessment of the role of ageing and non-ageing factors in death from non-communicable diseases based on a cumulative frequency model.

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