Joint modelling of longitudinal 3MS scores and the risk of mortality among cognitively impaired individuals.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Guure CB
PROVIDER: S-EPMC5558951 | biostudies-other | 2017
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other
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Project description:There is poor knowledge about the clinical effects of Lewy body (LB) pathology in patients with cognitive impairment, especially when coexisting with Alzheimer's disease (AD) pathology (amyloid-β and tau). Using a seed amplification assay, we analyzed cerebrospinal fluid for misfolded LB-associated α-synuclein in 883 memory clinic patients with mild cognitive impairment or dementia from the BioFINDER study. Twenty-three percent had LB pathology, of which only 21% fulfilled clinical criteria of Parkinson's disease or dementia with Lewy bodies at baseline. Among these LB-positive patients, 48% had AD pathology. Fifty-four percent had AD pathology in the whole sample (17% of mild cognitive impairment and 24% of patients with dementia were also LB-positive). When examining independent cross-sectional effects, LB pathology but not amyloid-β or tau, was associated with hallucinations and worse attention/executive, visuospatial and motor function. LB pathology was also associated with faster longitudinal decline in all examined cognitive functions, independent of amyloid-β, tau, cognitive stage and a baseline diagnosis of dementia with Lewy bodies/Parkinson's disease. LB status provides a better precision-medicine approach to predict clinical trajectories independent of AD biomarkers and a clinical diagnosis, which could have implications for the clinical management of cognitive impairment and the design of AD and LB drug trials.
| S-EPMC10427416 | biostudies-literature
Project description:OBJECTIVE:To examine the long-term cognitive trajectories of individuals with normal cognition at baseline and distinct amyloid/tau/neurodegeneration (ATN) profiles. METHODS:Pooling data across 4 cohort studies, 814 cognitively normal participants (mean baseline age = 59.6 years) were classified into 8 ATN groups using baseline CSF levels of β-amyloid 1-42 as a measure of amyloid (A), phosphorylated tau 181 as a measure of tau (T), and total tau as a measure of neurodegeneration (N). Cognitive performance was measured using a previously validated global factor score and with the Mini-Mental State Examination. We compared the cognitive trajectories across groups using growth curve models (mean follow-up time = 7 years). RESULTS:Using different model formulations and cut points for determining biomarker abnormality, only the group with abnormal levels of amyloid, tau, and neurodegeneration (A+T+N+) showed consistently greater cognitive decline than the group with normal levels of all biomarkers (A-T-N-). Replicating prior findings using the 2011 National Institute on Aging-Alzheimer's Association/suspected non-Alzheimer disease pathophysiology schema, only individuals with abnormal levels of both amyloid and phosphorylated tau 181 or total tau (stage 2) showed greater cognitive decline than those with normal biomarker levels (stage 0). CONCLUSION:The results are consistent with the hypothesis that both elevated brain amyloid and neurofibrillary tangles are necessary to observe accelerated neurodegeneration, which in turn leads to cognitive decline.
| S-EPMC6448449 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PurposeTo assess the baseline differences and longitudinal rate of change in retinal and choroidal imaging parameters between apolipoprotein ε4 (APOE ε4) carriers and noncarriers with normal cognition.DesignProspective study.SubjectsFour hundred thirteen eyes of 218 individuals with normal cognition aged ≥ 55 years with known APOE status (98 APOE ε4 carriers and 120 noncarriers). The exclusion criteria included diabetes mellitus, uncontrolled hypertension, glaucoma, and vitreoretinal or neurodegenerative disease.MethodsOCT and OCT angiography (OCTA) were performed at baseline and 2 years (Zeiss Cirrus HD-OCT 5000 with AngioPlex; Zeiss Meditec). The groups were compared using sex- and age-adjusted generalized estimating equations.Main outcome measuresOCT parameters: retinal nerve fiber layer thickness, macular ganglion cell-inner plexiform layer thickness, central subfield thickness (CST), and choroidal vascularity index. OCT angiography parameters: foveal avascular zone area, perfusion density (PD), vessel density, peripapillary capillary PD (CPD), and capillary flux index (CFI). The rate of change per year was calculated.ResultsAt the baseline, the APOE ε4 carriers had lower CST (P = 0.018), PD in the 6-mm ETDRS circle (P = 0.049), and temporal CFI (P = 0.047). Seventy-one APOE ε4 carriers and 78 noncarriers returned at 2 years; at follow-up, the 6-mm ETDRS circle (P = 0.05) and outer ring (P = 0.049) showed lower PD in the APOE ε4 carriers, with no differences in the rates of change between the groups (all P > 0.05).ConclusionsThere was exploratory evidence of differences in the CST, PD, and peripapillary CFI between the APOE ε4 carriers and noncarriers with normal cognition. Larger and longer-term studies may help further elucidate the potential prognostic value of these findings.
| S-EPMC9271592 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveValidation and widespread use of markers indicating decline in serial neuropsychological exams has remained elusive despite potential value in prognostic and treatment decision-making. This study aimed to operationalize neuropsychological decline, termed "neuropsychological (NP) decline," in older adults followed over 12 months in order to aid in the stratification of dementia risk along the cognitively unimpaired-to-mild cognitive impairment (MCI) spectrum.MethodsA prospective cohort study utilized 6,794 older adults from the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center (NACC) database with a baseline diagnosis of normal cognition, impaired without MCI or with MCI. Operationalization of NP decline over 12-month follow-up used regression-based norms developed in a robustly normal reference sample. The extent to which each participant's 12-month follow-up score deviated from norm-referenced expectations was quantified and standardized to an NP decline z-score. Cox regression evaluated whether the NP decline metric predicted future dementia.ResultsParticipant's NP decline scores predicted future all-cause dementia in the total sample, χ2 = 110.71, hazard ratio (HR) = 1.989, p < 0.001, and in the subset diagnosed with normal cognition, χ2 = 40.84, HR = 2.006, p < 0.001, impaired without MCI diagnosis, χ2 = 14.89, HR = 2.465, p < 0.001, and impaired with MCI diagnosis, χ2 = 55.78, HR = 1.916, p < 0.001.ConclusionOperationalizing NP decline over 12 months with a regression-based norming method allows for further stratification of dementia risk along the cognitively unimpaired-to-MCI spectrum. The use of NP decline as an adjunctive marker of risk beyond standard cognitive diagnostic practices may aid in prognosis and clinical decision-making.
| S-EPMC9339652 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIndividuals on the preclinical Alzheimer's continuum, particularly those with both amyloid and tau positivity (A + T +), display a rapid cognitive decline and elevated disease progression risk. However, limited studies exist on brain atrophy trajectories within this continuum over extended periods.MethodsThis study involved 367 ADNI participants grouped based on combinations of amyloid and tau statuses determined through cerebrospinal fluid tests. Using longitudinal MRI scans, brain atrophy was determined according to the whole brain, lateral ventricle, and hippocampal volumes and cortical thickness in AD-signature regions. Cognitive performance was evaluated with the Preclinical Alzheimer's Cognitive Composite (PACC). A generalized linear mixed-effects model was used to examine group × time interactions for these measures. In addition, progression risks to mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or dementia were compared among the groups using Cox proportional hazards models.ResultsA total of 367 participants (48 A + T + , 86 A + T - , 63 A - T + , and 170 A - T - ; mean age 73.8 years, mean follow-up 5.1 years, and 47.4% men) were included. For the lateral ventricle and PACC score, the A + T - and A + T + groups demonstrated statistically significantly greater volume expansion and cognitive decline over time than the A - T - group (lateral ventricle: β = 0.757 cm3/year [95% confidence interval 0.463 to 1.050], P < .001 for A + T - , and β = 0.889 cm3/year [0.523 to 1.255], P < .001 for A + T + ; PACC: β = - 0.19 /year [- 0.36 to - 0.02], P = .029 for A + T - , and β = - 0.59 /year [- 0.80 to - 0.37], P < .001 for A + T +). Notably, the A + T + group exhibited additional brain atrophy including the whole brain (β = - 2.782 cm3/year [- 4.060 to - 1.504], P < .001), hippocampus (β = - 0.057 cm3/year [- 0.085 to - 0.029], P < .001), and AD-signature regions (β = - 0.02 mm/year [- 0.03 to - 0.01], P < .001). Cox proportional hazards models suggested an increased risk of progressing to MCI or dementia in the A + T + group versus the A - T - group (adjusted hazard ratio = 3.35 [1.76 to 6.39]).ConclusionsIn cognitively normal individuals, A + T + compounds brain atrophy and cognitive deterioration, amplifying the likelihood of disease progression. Therapeutic interventions targeting A + T + individuals could be pivotal in curbing brain atrophy, cognitive decline, and disease progression.
| S-EPMC11005141 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundPolygenic risk scores (PRSs) can stratify populations into cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk groups. We aimed to quantify the potential advantage of adding information on PRSs to conventional risk factors in the primary prevention of CVD.Methods and findingsUsing data from UK Biobank on 306,654 individuals without a history of CVD and not on lipid-lowering treatments (mean age [SD]: 56.0 [8.0] years; females: 57%; median follow-up: 8.1 years), we calculated measures of risk discrimination and reclassification upon addition of PRSs to risk factors in a conventional risk prediction model (i.e., age, sex, systolic blood pressure, smoking status, history of diabetes, and total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol). We then modelled the implications of initiating guideline-recommended statin therapy in a primary care setting using incidence rates from 2.1 million individuals from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. The C-index, a measure of risk discrimination, was 0.710 (95% CI 0.703-0.717) for a CVD prediction model containing conventional risk predictors alone. Addition of information on PRSs increased the C-index by 0.012 (95% CI 0.009-0.015), and resulted in continuous net reclassification improvements of about 10% and 12% in cases and non-cases, respectively. If a PRS were assessed in the entire UK primary care population aged 40-75 years, assuming that statin therapy would be initiated in accordance with the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines (i.e., for persons with a predicted risk of ≥10% and for those with certain other risk factors, such as diabetes, irrespective of their 10-year predicted risk), then it could help prevent 1 additional CVD event for approximately every 5,750 individuals screened. By contrast, targeted assessment only among people at intermediate (i.e., 5% to <10%) 10-year CVD risk could help prevent 1 additional CVD event for approximately every 340 individuals screened. Such a targeted strategy could help prevent 7% more CVD events than conventional risk prediction alone. Potential gains afforded by assessment of PRSs on top of conventional risk factors would be about 1.5-fold greater than those provided by assessment of C-reactive protein, a plasma biomarker included in some risk prediction guidelines. Potential limitations of this study include its restriction to European ancestry participants and a lack of health economic evaluation.ConclusionsOur results suggest that addition of PRSs to conventional risk factors can modestly enhance prediction of first-onset CVD and could translate into population health benefits if used at scale.
| S-EPMC7808664 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundGrip strength is a noninvasive method of risk stratification; however, the association between changes in strength and mortality is unknown. The purposes of this study were to examine the association between grip strength and mortality among older Mexican Americans and to determine the ability of changes in strength to predict mortality.MethodsLongitudinal data were included from 3,050 participants in the Hispanic Established Population for the Epidemiological Study of the Elderly. Strength was assessed using a hand-held dynamometer and normalized to body mass. Conditional inference tree analyses were used to identify sex- and age-specific weakness thresholds, and the Kaplan-Meier estimator was used to determine survival estimates across various strata. We also evaluated survival with traditional Cox proportional hazard regression for baseline strength, as well as with joint modeling of survival and longitudinal strength change trajectories.ResultsSurvival estimates were lower among women who were weak at baseline for only 65- to 74-year-olds (11.93 vs 16.69 years). Survival estimates were also lower among men who were weak at baseline for only ≥75-year-olds (5.80 vs 7.39 years). Lower strength at baseline (per 0.1 decrement) was significantly associated with mortality (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.10; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01-1.19) for women only. There was a strong independent, longitudinal association between strength decline and early mortality, such that each 0.10 decrease in strength, within participants over time, resulted in a HR of 1.12 (95% CI: 1.00-1.25) for women and a HR of 1.15 (95% CI: 1.04-1.28) for men.ConclusionsLongitudinal declines in strength are significantly associated with all-cause mortality in older Mexican Americans.
| S-EPMC5106852 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundResearch assessing the relationship of physical activity and dementia is usually based on studies with individuals younger than 90 years of age. The primary aim of this study was to determine physical activity levels of cognitively normal and cognitively impaired adults older than 90 years of age (oldest-old). Our secondary aim was to assess if physical activity is associated with risk factors for dementia and brain pathology biomarkers.MethodsPhysical activity was assessed in cognitively normal (N = 49) and cognitively impaired (N = 12) oldest-old by trunk accelerometry for a 7-day period. We tested physical performance parameters and nutritional status as dementia risk factors, and brain pathology biomarkers. Linear regression models were used to examine the associations, correcting for age, sex and years of education.ResultsCognitively normal oldest-old were on average active for a total duration of 45 (SD 27) minutes per day, while cognitively impaired oldest-old seemed less physically active with 33 (SD 21) minutes per day with a lower movement intensity. Higher active duration and lower sedentary duration were related to better nutritional status and better physical performance. Higher movement intensities were related to better nutritional status, better physical performance and less white matter hyperintensities. Longer maximum walking bout duration associated with more amyloid binding.ConclusionWe found that cognitively impaired oldest-old are active at a lower movement intensity than cognitively normal oldest-old individuals. In the oldest-old, physical activity is related to physical parameters, nutritional status, and moderately to brain pathology biomarkers.
| S-EPMC9993554 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Polygenic Risk Scores (PRS) for AD offer unique possibilities for reliable identification of individuals at high and low risk of AD. However, there is little agreement in the field as to what approach should be used for genetic risk score calculations, how to model the effect of APOE, what the optimal p-value threshold (pT) for SNP selection is and how to compare scores between studies and methods. We show that the best prediction accuracy is achieved with a model with two predictors (APOE and PRS excluding APOE region) with pT<0.1 for SNP selection. Prediction accuracy in a sample across different PRS approaches is similar, but individuals' scores and their associated ranking differ. We show that standardising PRS against the population mean, as opposed to the sample mean, makes the individuals' scores comparable between studies. Our work highlights the best strategies for polygenic profiling when assessing individuals for AD risk.
| S-EPMC8302739 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIn clinical research, there is an increasing interest in joint modelling of longitudinal and time-to-event data, since it reduces bias in parameter estimation and increases the efficiency of statistical inference. Inference and prediction from frequentist approaches of joint models have been extensively reviewed, and due to the recent popularity of data-driven Bayesian approaches, a review on current Bayesian estimation of joint model is useful to draw recommendations for future researches.MethodsWe have undertaken a comprehensive review on Bayesian univariate and multivariate joint models. We focused on type of outcomes, model assumptions, association structure, estimation algorithm, dynamic prediction and software implementation.ResultsA total of 89 articles have been identified, consisting of 75 methodological and 14 applied articles. The most common approach to model the longitudinal and time-to-event outcomes jointly included linear mixed effect models with proportional hazards. A random effect association structure was generally used for linking the two sub-models. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms were commonly used (93% articles) to estimate the model parameters. Only six articles were primarily focused on dynamic predictions for longitudinal or event-time outcomes.ConclusionMethodologies for a wide variety of data types have been proposed; however the research is limited if the association between the two outcomes changes over time, and there is also lack of methods to determine the association structure in the absence of clinical background knowledge. Joint modelling has been proved to be beneficial in producing more accurate dynamic prediction; however, there is a lack of sufficient tools to validate the prediction.
| S-EPMC7183597 | biostudies-literature