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The Effect of Expected Value on Attraction Effect Preference Reversals.

ABSTRACT: The attraction effect shows that adding a third alternative to a choice set can alter preference between the original two options. For over 30?years, this simple demonstration of context dependence has been taken as strong evidence against a class of parsimonious value-maximising models that evaluate alternatives independently from one another. Significantly, however, in previous demonstrations of the attraction effect alternatives are approximately equally valuable, so there was little consequence to the decision maker irrespective of which alternative was selected. Here we vary the difference in expected value between alternatives and provide the first demonstration that, although extinguished with large differences, this theoretically important effect persists when choice between alternatives has a consequence. We use this result to clarify the implications of the attraction effect, arguing that although it robustly violates the assumptions of value-maximising models, it does not eliminate the possibility that human decision making is optimal.

SUBMITTER: Farmer GD

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5637901 | biostudies-other | 2017 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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The Effect of Expected Value on Attraction Effect Preference Reversals.

Farmer George D GD Warren Paul A PA El-Deredy Wael W Howes Andrew A

Journal of behavioral decision making 20161219 4

The attraction effect shows that adding a third alternative to a choice set can alter preference between the original two options. For over 30 years, this simple demonstration of context dependence has been taken as strong evidence against a class of parsimonious value-maximising models that evaluate alternatives independently from one another. Significantly, however, in previous demonstrations of the attraction effect alternatives are approximately equally valuable, so there was little conseque ...[more]

PMID: 29081595

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Project description:ObjectivesOperators performing fetal growth scans are usually aware of the gestational age of the pregnancy, which may lead to expected-value bias when performing biometric measurements. We aimed to evaluate the incidence of expected-value bias in routine fetal growth scans and assess its impact on standard biometric measurements.MethodsWe collected prospectively full-length video recordings of routine ultrasound growth scans coupled with operator eye tracking. Expected value was defined as the gestational age at the time of the scan, based on the estimated due date that was established at the dating scan. Expected-value bias was defined as occurring when the operator looked at the measurement box on the screen during the process of caliper adjustment before saving a measurement. We studied the three standard biometric planes on which measurements of head circumference (HC), abdominal circumference (AC) and femur length (FL) are obtained. We evaluated the incidence of expected-value bias and quantified the impact of biased measurements.ResultsWe analyzed 272 third-trimester growth scans, performed by 16 operators, during which a total of 1409 measurements (354 HC, 703 AC and 352 FL; including repeat measurements) were obtained. Expected-value bias occurred in 91.4% of the saved standard biometric plane measurements (85.0% for HC, 92.9% for AC and 94.9% for FL). The operators were more likely to adjust the measurements towards the expected value than away from it (47.7% vs 19.7% of measurements; P?<?0.001). On average, measurements were corrected by 2.3?±?5.6, 2.4?±?10.4 and 3.2?±?10.4?days of gestation towards the expected gestational age for the HC, AC, and FL measurements, respectively. Additionally, we noted a statistically significant reduction in measurement variance once the operator was biased (P?=?0.026). Comparing the lowest and highest possible estimated fetal weight (using the smallest and largest biased HC, AC and FL measurements), we noted that the discordance, in percentage terms, was 10.1%?±?6.5%, and that in 17% (95%?CI, 12-21%) of the scans, the fetus could be considered as small-for-gestational age or appropriate-for-gestational age if using the smallest or largest possible measurements, respectively. Similarly, in 13% (95%?CI, 9-16%) of scans, the fetus could be considered as large-for-gestational age or appropriate-for-gestational age if using the largest or smallest possible measurements, respectively.ConclusionsDuring routine third-trimester growth scans, expected-value bias frequently occurs and significantly changes standard biometric measurements obtained. © 2019 the Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Dataset Information

The Effect of Expected Value on Attraction Effect Preference Reversals.

Publications

The Effect of Expected Value on Attraction Effect Preference Reversals.

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