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Does accounting for seizure frequency variability increase clinical trial power?

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE:Seizure frequency variability is associated with placebo responses in randomized controlled trials (RCT). Increased variability can result in drug misclassification and, hence, decreased statistical power. We investigated a new method that directly incorporated variability into RCT analysis, ZV. METHODS:Two models were assessed: the traditional 50%-responder rate (RR50), and the variability-corrected score, ZV. Each predicted seizure frequency upper and lower limits using prior seizures. Accuracy was defined as percentage of time-intervals when the observed seizure frequencies were within the predicted limits. First, we tested the ZV method on three datasets (SeizureTracker: n=3016, Human Epilepsy Project: n=107, and NeuroVista: n=15). An additional independent SeizureTracker validation dataset was used to generate a set of 200 simulated trials each for 5 different sample sizes (total N=100 to 500 by 100), assuming 20% dropout and 30% drug efficacy. "Power" was determined as the percentage of trials successfully distinguishing placebo from drug (p<0.05). RESULTS:Prediction accuracy across datasets was, ZV: 91-100%, RR50: 42-80%. Simulated RCT ZV analysis achieved >90% power at N=100 per arm while RR50 required N=200 per arm. SIGNIFICANCE:ZV may increase the statistical power of an RCT relative to the traditional RR50.

SUBMITTER: Goldenholz DM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5650933 | biostudies-other | 2017 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Does accounting for seizure frequency variability increase clinical trial power?

Goldenholz Daniel M DM Goldenholz Shira R SR Moss Robert R French Jacqueline J Lowenstein Daniel D Kuzniecky Ruben R Haut Sheryl S Cristofaro Sabrina S Detyniecki Kamil K Hixson John J Karoly Philippa P Cook Mark M Strashny Alex A Theodore William H WH Pieper Carl C

Epilepsy research 20170725

<h4>Objective</h4>Seizure frequency variability is associated with placebo responses in randomized controlled trials (RCT). Increased variability can result in drug misclassification and, hence, decreased statistical power. We investigated a new method that directly incorporated variability into RCT analysis, Z<sub>V</sub>.<h4>Methods</h4>Two models were assessed: the traditional 50%-responder rate (RR50), and the variability-corrected score, Z<sub>V</sub>. Each predicted seizure frequency upper ...[more]

PMID: 28781216

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Project description:ImportanceClinical evidence supports effectiveness of cannabidiol for treatment-resistant seizures in Dravet syndrome, but this trial is the first to evaluate the 10-mg/kg/d dose.ObjectiveTo evaluate the efficacy and safety of a pharmaceutical formulation of cannabidiol, 10 and 20 mg/kg/d, vs placebo for adjunctive treatment of convulsive seizures in patients with Dravet syndrome.Design, setting, and participantsThis double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized clinical trial (GWPCARE2) recruited patients from April 13, 2015, to November 10, 2017, with follow-up completed on April 9, 2018. Of 285 patients screened from 38 centers in the United States, Spain, Poland, the Netherlands, Australia, and Israel, 86 were excluded, and 199 were randomized. Patients were aged 2 to 18 years with a confirmed diagnosis of Dravet syndrome and at least 4 convulsive seizures during the 4-week baseline period while receiving at least 1 antiepileptic drug. Data were analyzed from November 16 (date of unblinding) to December 13 (date of final outputs), 2018, based on intention to treat and per protocol.InterventionsPatients received cannabidiol oral solution at a dose of 10 or 20 mg/kg per day (CBD10 and CBD20 groups, respectively) or matched placebo in 2 equally divided doses for 14 weeks. All patients, caregivers, investigators, and individuals assessing data were blinded to group assignment.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome was change from baseline in convulsive seizure frequency during the treatment period. Secondary outcomes included change in all seizure frequency, proportion with at least a 50% reduction in convulsive seizure activity, and change in Caregiver Global Impression of Change score.ResultsOf 198 eligible patients (mean [SD] age, 9.3 [4.4] years; 104 female [52.5%]), 66 were randomized to the CBD10 group, 67 to the CBD20 group, and 65 to the placebo group, and 190 completed treatment. The percentage reduction from baseline in convulsive seizure frequency was 48.7% for CBD10 group and 45.7% for the CBD20 group vs 26.9% for the placebo group; the percentage reduction from placebo was 29.8% (95% CI, 8.4%-46.2%; P = .01) for CBD10 group and 25.7% (95% CI, 2.9%-43.2%; P = .03) for the CBD20 group. The most common adverse events were decreased appetite, diarrhea, somnolence, pyrexia, and fatigue. Five patients in the CBD20 group discontinued owing to adverse events. Elevated liver transaminase levels occurred more frequently in the CBD20 (n = 13) than the CBD10 (n = 3) group, with all affected patients given concomitant valproate sodium.Conclusions and relevanceAdjunctive cannabidiol at doses of 10 and 20 mg/kg/d led to similar clinically relevant reductions in convulsive seizure frequency with a better safety and tolerability profile for the 10-mg/kg/d dose in children with treatment-resistant Dravet syndrome. Dose increases of cannabidiol to greater than 10 mg/kg/d should be tailored to individual efficacy and safety.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02224703.

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Does accounting for seizure frequency variability increase clinical trial power?

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Does accounting for seizure frequency variability increase clinical trial power?

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