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Prognostic group stratification and nomogram for predicting overall survival in patients who received radiotherapy for abdominal lymph node metastasis from hepatocellular carcinoma: a multi-institutional retrospective study (KROG 15-02).

ABSTRACT: To develop a prognostic model for overall survival (OS) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients receiving radiotherapy (RT) to metastatic abdominal lymph nodes (LNs).Two hundred twenty-eight patients treated with RT to metastatic abdominal LNs were retrospectively reviewed.Median OS in all patients was 11.1 months. LN responders had significantly higher median OS than non-responders (14.2 months vs. 7.5 months, p<0.05). On multivariate analysis, Child-Pugh classification, status of intrahepatic tumor, presence of distant metastasis, number and location of metastatic LNs, serum level of alpha fetoprotein (AFP), and the LN response to RT were significant prognostic factors for OS (p < 0.05 each). Based on the results of multivariate analysis, prognostic group stratification according to the number of pre-treatment risk factors was a significant predictor of OS, and median OS in patients with ? 4, 3, 2, 1, and 0 risk factors were 2.9, 5.5, 10.3, 13.6, and 27.8 months, respectively (p<0.05). A nomogram was formulated by integrating the different prognostic contribution of each factor, and it showed good accuracy for predicting 2-year OS with a concordance index of 0.72.Prognostic group stratification and nomogram could be useful prognostic and therapeutic indicators in selecting treatment strategies.

SUBMITTER: Kim Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5706887 | biostudies-other | 2017 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Prognostic group stratification and nomogram for predicting overall survival in patients who received radiotherapy for abdominal lymph node metastasis from hepatocellular carcinoma: a multi-institutional retrospective study (KROG 15-02).

Kim Youngkyong Y Park Hee Chul HC Yoon Sang Min SM Kim Tae Hyun TH Lee Jieun J Choi Jinhyun J Yu Jeong Il JI Park Jin-Hong JH Kim Jong Hoon JH Park Joong-Won JW Seong Jinsil J

Oncotarget 20171010 55

<h4>Objective</h4>To develop a prognostic model for overall survival (OS) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients receiving radiotherapy (RT) to metastatic abdominal lymph nodes (LNs).<h4>Materials and methods</h4>Two hundred twenty-eight patients treated with RT to metastatic abdominal LNs were retrospectively reviewed.<h4>Results</h4>Median OS in all patients was 11.1 months. LN responders had significantly higher median OS than non-responders (14.2 months vs. 7.5 months, <i>p</i><0.05). On ...[more]

PMID: 29212241

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Project description:Radiomics studies to predict lymph node (LN) metastasis has only focused on either primary tumor or LN alone. However, combining radiomics features from multiple sources may reflect multiple characteristic of the lesion thereby increasing the discriminative performance of the radiomic model. Therefore, the present study intends to evaluate the efficiency of integrative nomogram, created by combining clinical parameters and radiomics features extracted from gross tumor volume (GTV), peritumoral volume (PTV) and LN, for the preoperative prediction of LN metastasis in clinical cT1N0M0 adenocarcinoma. A primary cohort of 163 patients (training cohort, 113; and internal validation cohort, 50) and an external validation cohort of 53 patients with clinical stage cT1N0M0 were retrospectively included. Features were extracted from three regions of interests (ROIs): GTV; PTV (5.0 mm around the tumor) and LN on pre-operative contrast enhanced computed tomography (CT). LASSO logistic regression method was used to build radiomic signatures. Multivariable regression analysis was used to build a nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was assessed with respect to its calibration, discrimination, and clinical usefulness. The discriminative performance of nomogram was validated both internally and externally. The radiomic signatures using the features of GTV, PTV and LN showed a good ability in predicting LN metastasis with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.74 (95% CI 0.60-0.88), 0.72 (95% CI 0.57-0.87) and 0.64 (95% CI 0.48-0.80) respectively in external validation cohort. The integration of different signature together further increases the discriminatory ability: GTV + PTV (GPTV): AUC 0.75 (95% CI 0.61-0.89) and GPTV + LN: AUC 0.76 (95% CI 0.61-0.91) in external validation cohort. An integrative nomogram of clinical parameters and radiomic features demonstrated further increase in discriminatory ability with AUC of 0.79 (95% CI 0.66-0.93) in external validation cohort. The nomogram showed good calibration. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the radiomic nomogram was clinically useful. The integration of information from clinical parameters along with CT radiomics information from GTV, PTV and LN was feasible and increases the predictive performance of the nomogram in predicting LN status in cT1N0M0 adenocarcinoma patients suggesting merit of information integration from multiple sources in building prediction model.

Project description:Increased lymph node count (LNC) has been associated with prolonged survival in colorectal cancer (CRC), but the underlying mechanisms are still poorly understood. The study aims to identify new predictors and develop a preoperative nomogram for predicting the probability of adequate LNC (? 12). 501 eligible patients were retrospectively selected to identify clinical-pathological factors associated with LNC ? 12 through univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. The nomogram was built according to multivariate analyses of preoperative factors. Model performance was assessed with concordance index (c-index) and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), followed by internal validation and calibration using 1000-resample bootstrapping. Clinical validity of the nomogram and LNC impact on stage migration were also evaluated. Multivariate analyses showed patient age, CA19-9, circulating lymphocytes, neutrophils, platelets, tumor diameter, histology and deposit significantly correlated with LNC (P < 0.05). The effects were marginal for CEA, anemia and CRC location (0.05 < P < 0.1). The multivariate analyses of preoperative factors suggested decreased age, CEA, CA19-9, neutrophils, proximal location, and increased platelets and diameter were significantly associated with increased probability of LNC ? 12 (P < 0.05). The nomogram achieved c-indexes of 0.75 and 0.73 before and after correction for overfitting. The AUC was 0.75 (95% CI, 0.70-0.79) and the clinically valid threshold probabilities were between 10% and 60% for the nomogram to predict LNC < 12. Additionally, increased probability of adequate LNC before surgery was associated with increased LNC and negative lymph nodes rather than increased positive lymph nodes, lymph node ratio, pN stages or AJCC stages. Collectively, the results indicate the LNC is multifactorial and irrelevant to stage migration. The significant correlations with preoperative circulating markers may provide new explanations for LNC-related survival advantage which is reflected by the implication of regional and systemic antitumor immune responses.

Dataset Information

Prognostic group stratification and nomogram for predicting overall survival in patients who received radiotherapy for abdominal lymph node metastasis from hepatocellular carcinoma: a multi-institutional retrospective study (KROG 15-02).

Publications

Prognostic group stratification and nomogram for predicting overall survival in patients who received radiotherapy for abdominal lymph node metastasis from hepatocellular carcinoma: a multi-institutional retrospective study (KROG 15-02).

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