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A decision model to estimate a risk threshold for venous thromboembolism prophylaxis in hospitalized medical patients.

ABSTRACT: Essentials Low risk patients don't require venous thromboembolism (VTE) prophylaxis; low risk is unquantified. We used a Markov model to estimate the risk threshold for VTE prophylaxis in medical inpatients. Prophylaxis was cost-effective for an average medical patient with a VTE risk of ? 1.0%. VTE prophylaxis can be personalized based on patient risk and age/life expectancy.Background Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a common preventable condition in medical inpatients. Thromboprophylaxis is recommended for inpatients who are not at low risk of VTE, but no specific risk threshold for prophylaxis has been defined. Objective To determine a threshold for prophylaxis based on risk of VTE. Patients/Methods We constructed a decision model with a decision-tree following patients for 3 months after hospitalization, and a lifetime Markov model with 3-month cycles. The model tracked symptomatic deep vein thromboses and pulmonary emboli, bleeding events and heparin-induced thrombocytopenia. Long-term complications included recurrent VTE, post-thrombotic syndrome and pulmonary hypertension. For the base case, we considered medical inpatients aged 66 years, having a life expectancy of 13.5 years, VTE risk of 1.4% and bleeding risk of 2.7%. Patients received enoxaparin 40 mg day-1 for prophylaxis. Results Assuming a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $100 000/ quality-adjusted life year (QALY), prophylaxis was indicated for an average medical inpatient with a VTE risk of ? 1.0% up to 3 months after hospitalization. For the average patient, prophylaxis was not indicated when the bleeding risk was > 8.1%, the patient's age was > 73.4 years or the cost of enoxaparin exceeded $60/dose. If VTE risk was < 0.26% or bleeding risk was > 19%, the risks of prophylaxis outweighed benefits. The prophylaxis threshold was relatively insensitive to low-molecular-weight heparin cost and bleeding risk, but very sensitive to patient age and life expectancy. Conclusions The decision to offer prophylaxis should be personalized based on patient VTE risk, age and life expectancy. At a WTP of $100 000/QALY, prophylaxis is not warranted for most patients with a 3-month VTE risk below 1.0%.

SUBMITTER: Le P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5712445 | biostudies-other | 2017 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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A decision model to estimate a risk threshold for venous thromboembolism prophylaxis in hospitalized medical patients.

Le P P Martinez K A KA Pappas M A MA Rothberg M B MB

Journal of thrombosis and haemostasis : JTH 20170503 6

Essentials Low risk patients don't require venous thromboembolism (VTE) prophylaxis; low risk is unquantified. We used a Markov model to estimate the risk threshold for VTE prophylaxis in medical inpatients. Prophylaxis was cost-effective for an average medical patient with a VTE risk of ≥ 1.0%. VTE prophylaxis can be personalized based on patient risk and age/life expectancy.<h4>Summary</h4>Background Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a common preventable condition in medical inpatients. Thrombop ...[more]

PMID: 28371250

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Project description:ImportanceWhile hospital-associated venous thromboembolism (HA-VTE) is a known complication of hospitalization, contemporary incidence and outcomes data are scarce and methodologically contested.ObjectiveTo define and validate an automated electronic health record (EHR)-based algorithm for retrospective detection of HA-VTE and examine contemporary HA-VTE incidence, previously reported risk factors, and outcomes.Design, setting, and participantsThis cohort study was conducted using hospital admissions between January 1, 2013, and June 30, 2021, with follow-up until December 31, 2021. All medical (non-intensive care unit) admissions at an integrated health care delivery system with 21 hospitals in Northern California during the study period were included. Data were analyzed from January to June 2022.ExposuresPreviously reported risk factors associated with HA-VTE and administration of pharmacological prophylaxis were evaluated as factors associated with HA-VTE.Main outcomes and measuresYearly incidence rates and timing of HA-VTE events overall and by subtype (deep vein thrombosis, pulmonary embolism, both, or unknown), as well as readmissions and mortality rates.ResultsAmong 1 112 014 hospitalizations involving 529 492 patients (268 797 [50.8%] women; 75 238 Asian [14.2%], 52 697 Black [10.0%], 79 398 Hispanic [15.0%], and 307 439 non-Hispanic White [58.1%]; median [IQR] age, 67.0 [54.0-79.0] years), there were 13 843 HA-VTE events (1.2% of admissions) occurring in 10 410 patients (2.0%). HA-VTE events increased from 307 of 29 095 hospitalizations (1.1%) in the first quarter of 2013 to 551 of 33 729 hospitalizations (1.6%) in the first quarter of 2021. Among all HA-VTE events, 10 746 events (77.6%) were first noted after discharge. In multivariable analyses, several factors were associated with increased odds of HA-VTE, including active cancer (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.96; 95% CI, 1.85-2.08), prior VTE (aOR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.63-1.79), and reduced mobility (aOR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.50-1.77). Factors associated with decreased likelihood of HA-VTE included Asian race (vs non-Hispanic White: aOR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.61-0.69), current admission for suspected stroke (aOR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.65-0.81), and Hispanic ethnicity (vs non-Hispanic White: aOR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.77-0.86). HA-VTE events were associated with increased risk of readmission (hazard ratio [HR], 3.33; 95% CI, 3.25-3.41) and mortality (HR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.57-1.70).Conclusions and relevanceThis study found that HA-VTE events occurred in 1.2% of medical admissions, increased over time, and were associated with increased adverse outcomes. These findings suggest that approaches designed to mitigate occurrence and outcomes associated with HA-VTE may remain needed.

Project description:ObjectiveTo study the impact of multiphase quality improvement efforts to enhance appropriate use of chemical and mechanical venous thromboembolism (VTE) prophylaxis (VTEP) on the rate of hospital-acquired VTE and determine whether efforts have been associated with increased bleeding complications.Patients and methodsAll adult inpatients discharged between January 1, 2005, and December 31, 2015, were included in the study. Retrospective interrupted time series analysis compared VTEP performance, VTE outcomes, and unintended consequences (derived from linked administrative and clinical data) across 5 improvement phases: baseline (January 1, 2005-December 31, 2006), paper order set phase (January 1, 2007-February 9, 2009), electronic order set phase (February 10, 2009-December 16, 2009), active reminder phase (December 17, 2009-May 31, 2012), and maintenance phase (June 1, 2012-September 30, 2015).ResultsGuideline VTEP plan adherence at the end of the study period (including documenting contraindications) reached 88.8% (654,138 of 736,384 patient days). Delivery of pharmacological VTEP increased from 43.9% (49,155 of 111,906 patients) to 60.8% (75,784 of 124,676 patients); delivery of mechanical or pharmacological VTEP increased less (65.0% [431,791 of 664,087 patient days] to 67.4% [496,625 of 736,384 patient days]). Mean VTE rates decreased from 4.6 per 1000 hospitalizations (21.7 VTEs per month) at baseline to 4.3 per 1000 hospitalizations (18.0 VTEs per month) during the maintenance phase (P<.001). More than 97% of patients who had development of VTE (534 of 548) received VTEP, but 65.7% (360 of 548) experienced gaps of 1 or more days in VTEP delivery. Measured in-hospital bleeding rates were fairly consistent over the study (4.6% [5,198 of 111,906 patients] at baseline to 5.3% [6,662 of 124,676 patients] during the reminder phase). There was little change in rates of 7-day readmission with bleeding or VTE.ConclusionOur VTEP project improved guideline compliance, increased the proportion of patients receiving VTEP, and was associated with a decrease in VTE. Gaps in VTEP delivery occurred despite protocoled order sets and electronic feedback. Further improvements in VTE may require new approaches.

Dataset Information

A decision model to estimate a risk threshold for venous thromboembolism prophylaxis in hospitalized medical patients.

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A decision model to estimate a risk threshold for venous thromboembolism prophylaxis in hospitalized medical patients.

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