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An analysis of suicide trends in Scotland 1950-2014: comparison with England & Wales.

ABSTRACT: Scotland has disproportionately high rates of suicide compared with England. An analysis of trends may help reveal whether rates appear driven more by birth cohort, period or age. A 'birth cohort effect' for England & Wales has been previously reported by Gunnell et al. (B J Psych 182:164-70, 2003). This study replicates this analysis for Scotland, makes comparisons between the countries, and provides information on 'vulnerable' cohorts.Suicide and corresponding general population data were obtained from the National Records of Scotland, 1950 to 2014. Age and gender specific mortality rates were estimated. Age, period and cohort patterns were explored graphically by trend analysis.A pattern was found whereby successive male birth cohorts born after 1940 experienced higher suicide rates, in increasingly younger age groups, echoing findings reported for England & Wales. Young men (aged 20-39) were found to have a marked and statistically significant increase in suicide between those in the 1960 and 1965 birth cohorts. The 1965 cohort peaked in suicide rate aged 35-39, and the subsequent 1970 cohort peaked even younger, aged 25-29; it is possible that these 1965 and 1970 cohorts are at greater mass vulnerability to suicide than earlier cohorts. This was reflected in data for England & Wales, but to a lesser extent. Suicide rates associated with male birth cohorts subsequent to 1975 were less severe, and not statistically significantly different from earlier cohorts, suggestive of an amelioration of any possible influential 'cohort' effect. Scottish female suicide rates for all age groups converged and stabilised over time. Women have not been as affected as men, with less variation in patterns by different birth cohorts and with a much less convincing corresponding pattern suggestive of a 'cohort' effect.Trend analysis is useful in identifying 'vulnerable' cohorts, providing opportunities to develop suicide prevention strategies addressing these cohorts as they age.

SUBMITTER: Dougall N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5738808 | biostudies-other | 2017 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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An analysis of suicide trends in Scotland 1950-2014: comparison with England & Wales.

Dougall Nadine N Stark Cameron C Agnew Tim T Henderson Rob R Maxwell Margaret M Lambert Paul P

BMC public health 20171220 1

<h4>Background</h4>Scotland has disproportionately high rates of suicide compared with England. An analysis of trends may help reveal whether rates appear driven more by birth cohort, period or age. A 'birth cohort effect' for England & Wales has been previously reported by Gunnell et al. (B J Psych 182:164-70, 2003). This study replicates this analysis for Scotland, makes comparisons between the countries, and provides information on 'vulnerable' cohorts.<h4>Methods</h4>Suicide and correspondin ...[more]

PMID: 29262828

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Project description:The negative impacts of previous economic recessions on suicide rates have largely been attributed to rapid rises in unemployment in the context of inadequate social and work protection programmes. We have investigated trends in indicators of the 2008 economic recession and trends in suicide rates in England and Wales in men and women of working age (16-64 years old) for the period 2001-2011, before, during and after the economic recession, our aim was to identify demographic groups whose suicide rates were most affected. We found no clear evidence of an association between trends in female suicide rates and indicators of economic recession. Evidence of a halt in the previous downward trend in suicide rates occurred for men aged 16-34 years in 2006 (95% CI Quarter 3 (Q3) 2004, Q3 2007 for 16-24 year olds & Q1 2005, Q4 2006 for 25-34 year olds), whilst suicide rates in 35-44 year old men reversed from a downward to upward trend in early 2010 (95% CI Q4 2008, Q2 2011). For the younger men (16-34 years) this change preceded the sharp increases in redundancy and unemployment rates of early 2008 and lagged behind rising trends in house repossessions and bankruptcy that began around 2003. An exception were the 35-44 year old men for whom a change in suicide rate trends from downwards to upwards coincided with peaks in redundancies, unemployment and rises in long-term unemployment. Suicide rates across the decade rose monotonically in men aged 45-64 years. Male suicide in the most-to-medium deprived areas showed evidence of decreasing rates across the decade, whilst in the least-deprived areas suicide rates were fairly static but remained much lower than those in the most-deprived areas. There were small post-recession increases in the proportion of suicides in men in higher management/professional, small employer/self-employed occupations and fulltime education. A halt in the downward trend in suicide rates amongst men aged 16-34 years, may have begun before the 2008 economic recession whilst for men aged 35-44 years old increased suicide rates mirrored recession related unemployment. This evidence suggests indicators of economic strain other than unemployment and redundancies, such as personal debt and house repossessions may contribute to increased suicide rates in younger-age men whilst for men aged 35-44 years old job loss and long-term unemployment is a key risk factor.

Project description:BackgroundLocal government provides Cultural, Environmental, and Planning (CEP) services, such as parks, libraries, and waste collection, that are vital for promoting health and wellbeing. There have been significant changes to the funding of these services over the past decade, most notably due to the UK government's austerity programme. These changes have not affected all places equally. To understand potential impacts on health inequalities, we investigated geographical patterning of recent CEP spending trends.MethodsWe conducted a time trend analysis using routinely available data on local government expenditure. We used generalised estimating equations to determine how expenditure trends varied across 378 local authorities (LAs) in Great Britain between 2009/10 and 2018/19 on the basis of country, deprivation, rurality, and local government structure. We investigated the gross expenditure per capita on CEP services, and the CEP expenditure as a proportion of total local authority budgets. We present the estimated annual percentage change in these spend measures.ResultsExpenditure per capita for CEP services reduced by 36% between 2009/10 and 2018/19. In England, the reduction in per capita spending was steepest in the most deprived quintile of areas, falling by 7.5% [95% CI: 6.0, 8.9] per year, compared to 4.5% [95% CI: 3.3, 5.6] per year in the least deprived quintile. Budget cuts in Scotland and Wales have been more equitable, with similar trends in the most and least deprived areas. Welsh LAs have reduced the proportion of total LA budget spent on CEP services the most (-4.0% per year, 95% CI: -5.0 to -2.9), followed by Scotland (-3.0% per year, 95% CI: -4.2 to -1.7) then England (-1.4% per year, 95% CI: -2.2 to -0.6). In England, rural and unitary LAs reduced their share of spending allocated to CEP more than urban and two-tier structured LAs, respectively.ConclusionFunding for cultural, environmental and planning services provided by local government in the UK has been cut dramatically over the last decade, with clear geographical inequalities. Local areas worst affected have been those with a higher baseline level of deprivation, those with a single-tier local government structure, and English rural local authorities. The inequalities in cuts to these services risk widening geographical inequalities in health and wellbeing.

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An analysis of suicide trends in Scotland 1950-2014: comparison with England & Wales.

Publications

An analysis of suicide trends in Scotland 1950-2014: comparison with England & Wales.

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