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The management of active surveillance in prostate cancer: validation of the Canary Prostate Active Surveillance Study risk calculator with the Spanish Urological Association Registry.

ABSTRACT: The follow up of patients on active surveillance requires to repeat prostate biopsies. Predictive models that identify patients at low risk of progression or reclassification are essential to reduce the number of unnecessary biopsies. The aim of this study is to validate the Prostate Active Surveillance Study risk calculator (PASS-RC) in the multicentric Spanish Urological Association Registry of patients on active surveillance (AS), from common clinical practice.We find significant differences in age, PSA and clinical stage between our validation cohort and the PASS-RC generation cohort (p < .0001), with a reclassification rate of 10-22% on the follow-up Bx, no cancer was found in 43% of the first follow-up Bx. The calibration curve shows underestimation of real appearance of reclassification. The AUC is 0.65 (C.I.95%: 0.60-0.71). PDF and CUC do not suggest a specific cut-off point of clinical use.We select 498 patients on AS with a minimum of one follow-up biopsy (Bx) from the 1,024 males registered by 36 Spanish centers recruiting patients on the Spanish Urological Association Registry on AS. PASS-RC external validation is carried by means of calibration curve and area under de ROC-curve (AUC), identifying cut-offs of clinical utility by probability density functions (PDF) and clinical utility curves (CUC).In our first external validation of the PASS-RC we have obtained a moderate discrimination ability, although we cannot recommend cut-off points of clinical use. We suggest the exploration of new biomarkers and/or morpho-functional parameters from multiparametric magnetic resonance image, to improve those necessary tools on AS.

SUBMITTER: Borque-Fernando A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5752455 | biostudies-other | 2017 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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The management of active surveillance in prostate cancer: validation of the Canary Prostate Active Surveillance Study risk calculator with the Spanish Urological Association Registry.

Borque-Fernando Ángel Á Rubio-Briones José J Esteban Luis Mariano LM Collado-Serra Argimiro A Pallás-Costa Yoni Y López-González Pedro Ángel PÁ Huguet-Pérez Jorge J Sanz-Vélez José Ignacio JI Gil-Fabra Jesús Manuel JM Gómez-Gómez Enrique E Quicios-Dorado Cristina C Fumadó Lluis L Martínez-Breijo Sara S Soto-Villalba Juan J

Oncotarget 20171024 65

The follow up of patients on active surveillance requires to repeat prostate biopsies. Predictive models that identify patients at low risk of progression or reclassification are essential to reduce the number of unnecessary biopsies. The aim of this study is to validate the Prostate Active Surveillance Study risk calculator (PASS-RC) in the multicentric Spanish Urological Association Registry of patients on active surveillance (AS), from common clinical practice.<h4>Results</h4>We find signific ...[more]

PMID: 29312542

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Project description:BackgroundMany patients who are on active surveillance (AS) for prostate cancer will have surveillance prostate needle biopsies (PNBs) without any cancer evident.ObjectiveTo define the association between negative surveillance PNBs and risk of reclassification on AS.Design, setting, and participantsAll men were enrolled in the Canary Prostate Active Surveillance Study (PASS) between 2008 and 2016. Men were included if they had Gleason ≤3+4 prostate cancer and <34% core involvement ratio at diagnosis. Men were prescribed surveillance PNBs at 12 and 24 mo after diagnosis and then every 24 mo.Outcome measurements and statistical analysisReclassification was defined as an increase in Gleason grade and/or an increase in the ratio of biopsy cores to cancer to ≥34%. PNB outcomes were defined as follows: (1) no cancer on biopsy, (2) cancer without reclassification, or (3) reclassification. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard models were performed to assess the risk of reclassification.Results and limitationsA total of 657 men met inclusion criteria. On first surveillance PNB, 214 (32%) had no cancer, 282 (43%) had cancer but no reclassification, and 161 (25%) reclassified. Among those who did not reclassify, 313 had a second PNB. On second PNB, 120 (38%) had no cancer, 139 (44%) had cancer but no reclassification, and 54 (17%) reclassified. In a multivariable analysis, significant predictors of decreased future reclassification after the first PNB were no cancer on PNB (hazard ratio [HR]=0.50, p=0.008), lower serum prostate-specific antigen, larger prostate size, and lower body mass index. A finding of no cancer on the second PNB was also associated with significantly decreased future reclassification in a multivariable analysis (HR=0.15, p=0.003), regardless of the first PNB result. The major limitation of this study is a relatively small number of patients with long-term follow-up.ConclusionsMen who have a surveillance PNB with no evidence of cancer are significantly less likely to reclassify on AS in the PASS cohort. These findings have implications for tailoring AS protocols.Patient summaryMen on active surveillance for prostate cancer who have a biopsy showing no cancer are at a decreased risk of having worse disease in the future. This may have an impact on how frequently biopsies are required to be performed in the future.

Project description:BackgroundDiagnosis of Gleason 6 prostate cancer can leave uncertainty about the presence of undetected aggressive disease.ObjectiveTo evaluate the utility of a four kallikrein (4K) panel in predicting the presence of high-grade cancer in men on active surveillance.Design, setting, and participantsPlasma collected before the first and subsequent surveillance biopsies was assessed for 718 men prospectively enrolled in the multi-institutional Canary PASS trial. Biopsy data were split 2:1 into training and test sets. We developed statistical models that included clinical information and either the 4Kpanel or serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA).Outcome measurements and statistical analysisThe endpoint was reclassification to Gleason ≥7. We used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses and area under the curve (AUC) to assess discriminatory capacity, and decision curve analysis (DCA) to report clinical net benefit.Results and limitationsSignificant predictors for reclassification were 4Kpanel (odds ratio [OR] 1.54, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.31-1.81) or PSA (OR 2.11, 95% CI 1.53-2.91), ≥20% cores positive (OR 2.10, 95% CI 1.33-3.32), two or more prior negative biopsies (OR 0.19, 95% CI 0.04-0.85), prostate volume (OR 0.47, 95% CI 0.31-0.70), and body mass index (OR 1.09, 95% CI 1.04-1.14). ROC curve analysis comparing 4K and base models indicated that the 4Kpanel improved accuracy for predicting reclassification (AUC 0.78 vs 0.74) at the first surveillance biopsy. Both models performed comparably for prediction of reclassification at subsequent biopsies (AUC 0.75 vs 0.76). In DCA, both models showed higher net benefit compared to biopsy-all and biopsy-none strategies. Limitations include the single cohort nature of the study and the small numbers; results should be validated in another cohort before clinical use.ConclusionsThe 4Kpanel provided incremental value over routine clinical information in predicting high-grade cancer in the first biopsy after diagnosis. The 4Kpanel did not add predictive value to the base model at subsequent surveillance biopsies.Patient summaryActive surveillance is a management strategy for many low-grade prostate cancers. Repeat biopsies monitor for previously undetected high-grade cancer. We show that a model with clinical variables, including a panel of four kallikreins, indicates the presence of high-grade cancer before a biopsy is performed.

Dataset Information

The management of active surveillance in prostate cancer: validation of the Canary Prostate Active Surveillance Study risk calculator with the Spanish Urological Association Registry.

Publications

The management of active surveillance in prostate cancer: validation of the Canary Prostate Active Surveillance Study risk calculator with the Spanish Urological Association Registry.

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