Dataset Information

Stratospheric ozone loss over the Eurasian continent induced by the polar vortex shift.

ABSTRACT: The Montreal Protocol has succeeded in limiting major ozone-depleting substance emissions, and consequently stratospheric ozone concentrations are expected to recover this century. However, there is a large uncertainty in the rate of regional ozone recovery in the Northern Hemisphere. Here we identify a Eurasia-North America dipole mode in the total column ozone over the Northern Hemisphere, showing negative and positive total column ozone anomaly centres over Eurasia and North America, respectively. The positive trend of this mode explains an enhanced total column ozone decline over the Eurasian continent in the past three decades, which is closely related to the polar vortex shift towards Eurasia. Multiple chemistry-climate-model simulations indicate that the positive Eurasia-North America dipole trend in late winter is likely to continue in the near future. Our findings suggest that the anticipated ozone recovery in late winter will be sensitive not only to the ozone-depleting substance decline but also to the polar vortex changes, and could be substantially delayed in some regions of the Northern Hemisphere extratropics.

SUBMITTER: Zhang J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5768802 | biostudies-other | 2018 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Stratospheric ozone loss over the Eurasian continent induced by the polar vortex shift.

Zhang Jiankai J Tian Wenshou W Xie Fei F Chipperfield Martyn P MP Feng Wuhu W Son Seok-Woo SW Abraham N Luke NL Archibald Alexander T AT Bekki Slimane S Butchart Neal N Deushi Makoto M Dhomse Sandip S Han Yuanyuan Y Jöckel Patrick P Kinnison Douglas D Kirner Ole O Michou Martine M Morgenstern Olaf O O'Connor Fiona M FM Pitari Giovanni G Plummer David A DA Revell Laura E LE Rozanov Eugene E Visioni Daniele D Wang Wuke W Zeng Guang G

Nature communications 20180115 1

The Montreal Protocol has succeeded in limiting major ozone-depleting substance emissions, and consequently stratospheric ozone concentrations are expected to recover this century. However, there is a large uncertainty in the rate of regional ozone recovery in the Northern Hemisphere. Here we identify a Eurasia-North America dipole mode in the total column ozone over the Northern Hemisphere, showing negative and positive total column ozone anomaly centres over Eurasia and North America, respecti ...[more]

PMID: 29335470

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Project description:This study evaluates simulated vertical ozone profiles produced in the framework of the third phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII3) against ozonesonde observations in North America for the year 2010. Four research groups from the United States (US) and Europe have provided modeled ozone vertical profiles to conduct this analysis. Because some of the modeling systems differ in their meteorological drivers, wind speed and temperature are also included in the analysis. In addition to the seasonal ozone profile evaluation for 2010, we also analyze chemically inert tracers designed to track the influence of lateral boundary conditions on simulated ozone profiles within the modeling domain. Finally, cases of stratospheric ozone intrusions during May-June 2010 are investigated by analyzing ozonesonde measurements and the corresponding model simulations at Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment Ozonesonde Network Study (IONS) experiment sites in the western United States. The evaluation of the seasonal ozone profiles reveals that, at a majority of the stations, ozone mixing ratios are underestimated in the 1-6 km range. The seasonal change noted in the errors follows the one seen in the variance of ozone mixing ratios, with the majority of the models exhibiting less variability than the observations. The analysis of chemically inert tracers highlights the importance of lateral boundary conditions up to 250 hPa for the lower-tropospheric ozone mixing ratios (0-2 km). Finally, for the stratospheric intrusions, the models are generally able to reproduce the location and timing of most intrusions but underestimate the magnitude of the maximum mixing ratios in the 2-6 km range and overestimate ozone up to the first kilometer possibly due to marine air influences that are not accurately described by the models. The choice of meteorological driver appears to be a greater predictor of model skill in this altitude range than the choice of air quality model.

Dataset Information

Stratospheric ozone loss over the Eurasian continent induced by the polar vortex shift.

Publications

Stratospheric ozone loss over the Eurasian continent induced by the polar vortex shift.

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