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Trajectories and predictors of the long-term course of low back pain: cohort study with 5-year follow-up.

ABSTRACT: Low back pain (LBP) is a major health challenge globally. Research has identified common trajectories of pain over time. We aimed to investigate whether trajectories described in 1 primary care cohort can be confirmed in another, and to determine the prognostic value of factors collected 5 years prior to the identification of the trajectory. The study was conducted on 281 patients who had consulted primary care for LBP, at that point completed a baseline questionnaire, and then returned a questionnaire at 5-year follow-up plus at least 3 (of 6) subsequent monthly questionnaires. Baseline factors were measured using validated tools. Pain intensity scores from the 5-year follow-up and monthly questionnaires were used to assign participants into 4 previously derived pain trajectories (no or occasional mild, persistent mild, fluctuating, and persistent severe), using latent class analysis. Posterior probabilities of belonging to each cluster were estimated for each participant. The posterior probabilities for the assigned clusters were very high (>0.90) for each cluster except for the smallest "fluctuating" cluster (0.74). Lower social class and higher pain intensity were significantly associated with a more severe trajectory 5 years later, as were patients' perceptions of the greater consequences and longer duration of pain, and greater passive behavioural coping. Low back pain trajectories identified previously appear generalizable. These allow better understanding of the long-term course of LBP, and effective management tailored to individual trajectories needs to be identified.This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CCBY), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

SUBMITTER: Chen Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5771685 | biostudies-other | 2017 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Trajectories and predictors of the long-term course of low back pain: cohort study with 5-year follow-up.

Chen Ying Y Campbell Paul P Strauss Victoria Y VY Foster Nadine E NE Jordan Kelvin P KP Dunn Kate M KM

Pain 20180201 2

Low back pain (LBP) is a major health challenge globally. Research has identified common trajectories of pain over time. We aimed to investigate whether trajectories described in 1 primary care cohort can be confirmed in another, and to determine the prognostic value of factors collected 5 years prior to the identification of the trajectory. The study was conducted on 281 patients who had consulted primary care for LBP, at that point completed a baseline questionnaire, and then returned a questi ...[more]

PMID: 29112007

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Project description:Study designProspective cohort study.ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to identify treatment response trajectories in patients with low back pain (LBP) during and after multidisciplinary care in a tertiary spine center, and to examine baseline patient characteristics that can distinguish trajectories.Summary of background dataTreatment response is often heterogeneous between patients with LBP. Knowledge on key characteristics that are associated with courses of disability could identify patients at risk for less favorable outcome. This knowledge will help improve shared decision-making.MethodsAdult patients with LBP completed questionnaires on disability (Pain Disability Index) and LBP impact (Impact Stratification of the National Institutes of Health minimal dataset) at baseline, 6, 12, 18, and 24 months' follow-up. Latent class analyses were applied to identify trajectories of disability and LBP impact. Baseline sociodemographic and clinical patient characteristics were compared between trajectory subgroups.ResultsFollow-up was available for 996 patients on disability and 707 patients on LBP impact. Six trajectories were identified for both outcome measures. Three disability trajectories remained stable at distinct levels of severity (68% of patients) and three trajectories showed patterns of recovery (32%). For LBP impact there was one stable trajectory (17%), two slightly improving (59%), two recovering (15%), and one with a pattern of recovery and relapse (15%). Significant differences between trajectories were observed for almost all baseline patient characteristics.ConclusionOn average, patients show moderate improvements in disability and LBP impact 2 years after visiting a multidisciplinary tertiary spine center. However, latent class analyses revealed that most patients belong to subgroups experiencing stable levels of disability and LBP impact. Differences in baseline patient characteristics were mostly associated with baseline levels of functioning, instead of (un)favorable outcome during follow-up.Level of evidence2.

Project description:BackgroundIn The Netherlands, low back pain patients can consult physicians specialized in musculoskeletal (MSK) medicine. Previous studies have reported on the characteristics of patients consulting MSK physicians, and the treatment options used. There are no studies yet reporting on the course of Low Back Pain (LBP) after treatment by musculoskeletal (MSK) physicians in The Netherlands.MethodsIn an observational cohort study MSK physicians recorded data about all low back pain patients presenting for a first consultation. At baseline they recorded age, gender, type and duration of the main complaint, and concomitant complaints. At the end of treatment they recorded the type of treatment and the number of treatment sessions. Patients were recruited to answer questionnaires at baseline, and at 6-weekly intervals during a follow-up period of six months. Patient questionnaires included information about previous medical consumption, together with PROMs measuring the level of pain and functional status. Latent Class Growth Analysis (LCGA) was used to classify patients into different groups according to their pain trajectories. Baseline variables were evaluated as predictors of a favourable trajectory using logistic regression analyses, and treatment variables were evaluated as possible confounders.ResultsA total of 1377 patients were recruited, of whom 1117 patients (81%) answered at least one follow-up measurement. LCGA identified three groups of patients with distinct pain trajectories. A first group (N = 226) with high pain levels showed no improvement, a second group (N = 578) with high pain levels showed strong improvement, and a third group (N = 313) with mild pain levels showed moderate improvement. The two groups of patients presenting with high baseline pain scores were compared, and a multivariable model was constructed with possible predictors of a favourable course. Male gender, previous specialist visit, previous pain clinic visit, having work, a shorter duration of the current episode, and a longer time since the complaints first started were predictors of a favourable course. The multivariable model showed a moderate area under the curve (0.68) and a low explained variance (0.09).ConclusionsIn low back pain patients treated by musculoskeletal physicians in The Netherlands three different pain trajectories were identified. Baseline variables were of limited value in predicting a favourable course.

Project description:BackgroundControl in COPD is a dynamic concept that can reflect changes in patients' clinical status that may have prognostic implications, but there is no information about changes in control status and its long-term consequences.MethodsWe classified 798 patients with COPD from the CHAIN cohort as controlled/uncontrolled at baseline and over 5 years. We describe the changes in control status in patients over long-term follow-up and analyze the factors that were associated with longitudinal control patterns and related survival using the Cox hazard analysis.Results134 patients (16.8%) were considered persistently controlled, 248 (31.1%) persistently uncontrolled and 416 (52.1%) changed control status during follow-up. The variables significantly associated with persistent control were not requiring triple therapy at baseline and having a better quality of life. Annual changes in outcomes (health status, psychological status, airflow limitation) did not differ in patients, regardless of clinical control status. All-cause mortality was lower in persistently controlled patients (5.5% versus 19.1%, p?=?0.001). The hazard ratio for all-cause mortality was 2.274 (95% CI 1.394-3.708; p?=?0.001). Regarding pharmacological treatment, triple inhaled therapy was the most common option in persistently uncontrolled patients (72.2%). Patients with persistent disease control more frequently used bronchodilators for monotherapy (53%) at recruitment, although by the end of the follow-up period, 20% had scaled up their treatment, with triple therapy being the most frequent therapeutic pattern.ConclusionsThe evaluation of COPD control status provides relevant prognostic information on survival. There is important variability in clinical control status and only a small proportion of the patients had persistently good control. Changes in the treatment pattern may be relevant in the longitudinal pattern of COPD clinical control. Further studies in other populations should validate our results.Trial registrationClinical Trials.gov: identifier NCT01122758.

Project description:Achieving adequate follow-up in clinical trials is essential to establish the validity of the findings. Achieving adequate response rates reduces bias and increases probability that the findings can be generalized to the population of interest. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to determine the influence of attention, demographic, psychological, and health status factors on web-based response rates in the ongoing Prevention of Low Back Pain in the Military (POLM) trial.Twenty companies of Soldiers (n = 4,325) were cluster randomized to complete a traditional exercise program including sit-ups (TEP) with or without a psychosocial educational program (PSEP) or a core stabilization exercise program (CSEP) with or without PSEP. A subgroup of Soldiers (n = 371) was randomized to receive an additional physical and ultrasound imaging (USI) examination of key trunk musculature. As part of the surveillance program, all Soldiers were encouraged to complete monthly surveys via email during the first year. Descriptive statistics of the predictor variables were obtained and compared between responders and non-responders using two sample t-tests or chi-square test, as appropriate. Generalized linear mixed models were subsequently fitted for the dichotomous outcomes to estimate the effects of the predictor variables. The significance level was set at .05 a priori.The overall response rate was 18.9% (811 subjects) for the first year. Responders were more likely to be older, Caucasian, have higher levels of education and income, reservist military status, non smoker, lower BMI, and have received individualized attention via the physical/USI examination (p < .05). Age, race/ethnicity, education, military status, smoking history, BMI, and whether a Soldier received the physical/USI examination remained statistically significant (p < .05) when considered in a full multivariate model.The overall web based response rate during the first year of the POLM trial was consistent with studies that used similar methodology, but lower when compared to rates expected for standard clinical trials. One year response rate was significantly associated with demographic characteristics, health status, and individualized attention via additional testing. These data may assist for planning of future trials that use web based response systems.This study has been registered at reports at http://clinicaltrials.gov (NCT00373009).

Dataset Information

Trajectories and predictors of the long-term course of low back pain: cohort study with 5-year follow-up.

Publications

Trajectories and predictors of the long-term course of low back pain: cohort study with 5-year follow-up.

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