Dataset Information

Host and parasite thermal ecology jointly determine the effect of climate warming on epidemic dynamics.

ABSTRACT: Host-parasite systems have intricately coupled life cycles, but each interactor can respond differently to changes in environmental variables like temperature. Although vital to predicting how parasitism will respond to climate change, thermal responses of both host and parasite in key traits affecting infection dynamics have rarely been quantified. Through temperature-controlled experiments on an ectothermic host-parasite system, we demonstrate an offset in the thermal optima for survival of infected and uninfected hosts and parasite production. We combine experimentally derived thermal performance curves with field data on seasonal host abundance and parasite prevalence to parameterize an epidemiological model and forecast the dynamical responses to plausible future climate-warming scenarios. In warming scenarios within the coastal southeastern United States, the model predicts sharp declines in parasite prevalence, with local parasite extinction occurring with as little as 2 °C warming. The northern portion of the parasite's current range could experience local increases in transmission, but assuming no thermal adaptation of the parasite, we find no evidence that the parasite will expand its range northward under warming. This work exemplifies that some host populations may experience reduced parasitism in a warming world and highlights the need to measure host and parasite thermal performance to predict infection responses to climate change.

SUBMITTER: Gehman AM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5789902 | biostudies-other | 2018 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Host and parasite thermal ecology jointly determine the effect of climate warming on epidemic dynamics.

Gehman Alyssa-Lois M AM Hall Richard J RJ Byers James E JE

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20180108 4

Host-parasite systems have intricately coupled life cycles, but each interactor can respond differently to changes in environmental variables like temperature. Although vital to predicting how parasitism will respond to climate change, thermal responses of both host and parasite in key traits affecting infection dynamics have rarely been quantified. Through temperature-controlled experiments on an ectothermic host-parasite system, we demonstrate an offset in the thermal optima for survival of in ...[more]

PMID: 29311324

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Project description:In a rapidly changing thermal environment, reptiles are primarily dependent on in situ adaptation because of their limited ability to disperse and the restricted opportunity to shift their ranges. However, the rapid pace of climate change may surpass these adaptation capabilities or elevate energy expenditures. Therefore, understanding the variability in thermal traits at both individual and population scales is crucial, offering insights into reptiles' vulnerability to climate change. We studied the thermal ecology of the endangered Greek meadow viper (Vipera graeca), an endemic venomous snake of fragmented alpine-subalpine meadows above 1600 m of the Pindos mountain range in Greece and Albania, to assess its susceptibility to anticipated changes in the alpine thermal environment. We measured preferred body temperature in artificial thermal gradient, field body temperatures of 74 individuals in five populations encompassing the entire geographic range of the species, and collected data on the available of temperatures for thermoregulation. We found that the preferred body temperature (Tp) differed only between the northernmost and the southernmost populations and increased with female body size but did not depend on sex or the gravidity status of females. Tp increased with latitude but was unaffected by the phylogenetic position of the populations. We also found high accuracy of thermoregulation in V. graeca populations and variation in the thermal quality of habitats throughout the range. The overall effectiveness of thermoregulation was high, indicating that V. graeca successfully achieves its target temperatures and exploits the thermal landscape. Current climatic conditions limit the activity period by an estimated 1278 h per year, which is expected to increase considerably under future climate scenarios. Restricted time available for thermoregulation, foraging and reproduction will represent a serious threat to the fitness of individuals and the persistence of populations in addition to habitat loss due to mining, tourism or skiing and habitat degradation due to overgrazing in the shrinking mountaintop habitats of V. graeca.

Project description:Tropical ectotherms are predicted to be especially vulnerable to climate change because their thermal tolerance limits generally lie close to current maximum air temperatures. This prediction derives primarily from studies on insects and lizards and remains untested for other taxa with contrasting ecologies. We studied the HCT (heat coma temperatures) and ULT (upper lethal temperatures) of 40 species of tropical eulittoral snails (Littorinidae and Neritidae) inhabiting exposed rocky shores and shaded mangrove forests in Oceania, Africa, Asia and North America. We also estimated extremes in animal body temperature at each site using a simple heat budget model and historical (20 years) air temperature and solar radiation data. Phylogenetic analyses suggest that HCT and ULT exhibit limited adaptive variation across habitats (mangroves vs. rocky shores) or geographic locations despite their contrasting thermal regimes. Instead, the elevated heat tolerance of these species (HCT = 44.5 ± 1.8°C and ULT = 52.1 ± 2.2°C) seems to reflect the extreme temperature variability of intertidal systems. Sensitivity to climate warming, which was quantified as the difference between HCT or ULT and maximum body temperature, differed greatly between snails from sunny (rocky shore; Thermal Safety Margin, TSM = -14.8 ± 3.3°C and -6.2 ± 4.4°C for HCT and ULT, respectively) and shaded (mangrove) habitats (TSM = 5.1 ± 3.6°C and 12.5 ± 3.6°C). Negative TSMs in rocky shore animals suggest that mortality is likely ameliorated during extreme climatic events by behavioral thermoregulation. Given the low variability in heat tolerance across species, habitat and geographic location account for most of the variation in TSM and may adequately predict the vulnerability to climate change. These findings caution against generalizations on the impact of global warming across ectothermic taxa and highlight how the consideration of nonmodel animals, ecological transitions, and behavioral responses may alter predictions of studies that ignore these biological details.

Dataset Information

Host and parasite thermal ecology jointly determine the effect of climate warming on epidemic dynamics.

Publications

Host and parasite thermal ecology jointly determine the effect of climate warming on epidemic dynamics.

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