Dataset Information

Dynamic prediction of risk of liver-related outcomes in chronic hepatitis C using routinely collected data.

ABSTRACT: Accuracy of risk assessments for clinical outcomes in patients with chronic liver disease has been limited given the nonlinear nature of disease progression. Longitudinal prediction models may more accurately capture this dynamic risk. The aim of this study was to construct accurate models of short- and long-term risk of disease progression in patients with chronic hepatitis C by incorporating longitudinal clinical data. Data from the Hepatitis C Antiviral Long-term Treatment Against Cirrhosis trial were analysed (n = 533 training cohort; n = 517 validation cohort). Outcomes included a composite liver outcome (liver-related death, decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) or liver transplant), decompensation, HCC and overall mortality. Longitudinal models were constructed for risk of outcomes at 1, 3 and 5 years and compared with models using data at baseline only or baseline and a single follow-up time point. A total of 25.1% of patients in the training and 20.8% in the validation cohort had an outcome during a median follow-up of 6.5 years (range 0.5-9.2). The most important predictors were as follows: albumin, aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase ratio, bilirubin, alpha-fetoprotein and platelets. Longitudinal models outperformed baseline models with higher true-positive rates and negative predictive values. The areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for the composite longitudinal model were 0.89 (0.80-0.96), 0.83 (0.76-0.88) and 0.81 (0.75-0.87) for 1-, 3-, and 5-year risk prediction, respectively. Model performance was retained for decompensation and overall mortality but not HCC. Longitudinal prediction models provide accurate risk assessments and identify patients in need of intensive monitoring and care.

SUBMITTER: Konerman MA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5809174 | biostudies-other | 2016 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Dynamic prediction of risk of liver-related outcomes in chronic hepatitis C using routinely collected data.

Konerman M A MA Brown M M Zheng Y Y Lok A S F AS

Journal of viral hepatitis 20160219 6

Accuracy of risk assessments for clinical outcomes in patients with chronic liver disease has been limited given the nonlinear nature of disease progression. Longitudinal prediction models may more accurately capture this dynamic risk. The aim of this study was to construct accurate models of short- and long-term risk of disease progression in patients with chronic hepatitis C by incorporating longitudinal clinical data. Data from the Hepatitis C Antiviral Long-term Treatment Against Cirrhosis t ...[more]

PMID: 26893198

Similar Datasets

Project description:Background & aimsA recent consensus document has defined metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) as hepatic steatosis together with overweight, diabetes, and/or a combination of other metabolic risk factors. The clinical relevance of this novel diagnosis is unknown among patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We studied the association between MAFLD (with or without steatohepatitis) and adverse clinical outcomes in patients with CHB.MethodsWe performed a retrospective long-term follow-up cohort study at 2 tertiary hospitals in patients with CHB who underwent liver biopsy. Biopsies were reassessed for steatosis, degree of fibrosis, and presence of steatohepatitis. Associations with event-free hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC)-free and transplant-free survival were explored.ResultsIn our cohort, 1076 patients were included, median follow-up was 9.8 years (25th-75th percentile: 6.6-14.0), and 107 events occurred in 78 patients, comprising death (n = 43), HCC (n = 36), liver decompensation (n = 21), and/or liver transplantation (n = 7). MAFLD was present in 296 (27.5%) patients and was associated with reduced event-free (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.00, 95% CI 1.26-3.19), HCC-free (aHR 1.93, 95% CI 1.17-3.21), and transplant-free survival (aHR 1.80, 95% CI 0.98-3.29) in multivariable analysis. Among patients with MAFLD, the presence of steatohepatitis (p = 0.95, log-rank test) was not associated with adverse outcomes.ConclusionsThe presence of MAFLD in patients with CHB was associated with an increased risk for liver-related clinical events and death. Among patients with MAFLD, steatohepatitis did not increase the risk of adverse outcomes. Our findings highlight the importance of metabolic dysfunction in patients with CHB.Lay summaryRecently, metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) has been defined as fatty liver disease with signs of metabolic dysfunction. Among patients with chronic hepatitis B, MAFLD was associated with liver-related events and death. Metabolic health assessment should be encouraged among patients with chronic hepatitis B, especially in those with fatty liver disease.

Dataset Information

Dynamic prediction of risk of liver-related outcomes in chronic hepatitis C using routinely collected data.

Publications

Dynamic prediction of risk of liver-related outcomes in chronic hepatitis C using routinely collected data.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets