Dataset Information

Global models underestimate large decadal declining and rising water storage trends relative to GRACE satellite data.

ABSTRACT: Assessing reliability of global models is critical because of increasing reliance on these models to address past and projected future climate and human stresses on global water resources. Here, we evaluate model reliability based on a comprehensive comparison of decadal trends (2002-2014) in land water storage from seven global models (WGHM, PCR-GLOBWB, GLDAS NOAH, MOSAIC, VIC, CLM, and CLSM) to trends from three Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite solutions in 186 river basins (?60% of global land area). Medians of modeled basin water storage trends greatly underestimate GRACE-derived large decreasing (?-0.5 km3/y) and increasing (?0.5 km3/y) trends. Decreasing trends from GRACE are mostly related to human use (irrigation) and climate variations, whereas increasing trends reflect climate variations. For example, in the Amazon, GRACE estimates a large increasing trend of ?43 km3/y, whereas most models estimate decreasing trends (-71 to 11 km3/y). Land water storage trends, summed over all basins, are positive for GRACE (?71-82 km3/y) but negative for models (-450 to -12 km3/y), contributing opposing trends to global mean sea level change. Impacts of climate forcing on decadal land water storage trends exceed those of modeled human intervention by about a factor of 2. The model-GRACE comparison highlights potential areas of future model development, particularly simulated water storage. The inability of models to capture large decadal water storage trends based on GRACE indicates that model projections of climate and human-induced water storage changes may be underestimated.

SUBMITTER: Scanlon BR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5819387 | biostudies-other | 2018 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Global models underestimate large decadal declining and rising water storage trends relative to GRACE satellite data.

Scanlon Bridget R BR Zhang Zizhan Z Save Himanshu H Sun Alexander Y AY Müller Schmied Hannes H van Beek Ludovicus P H LPH Wiese David N DN Wada Yoshihide Y Long Di D Reedy Robert C RC Longuevergne Laurent L Döll Petra P Bierkens Marc F P MFP

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20180122 6

Assessing reliability of global models is critical because of increasing reliance on these models to address past and projected future climate and human stresses on global water resources. Here, we evaluate model reliability based on a comprehensive comparison of decadal trends (2002-2014) in land water storage from seven global models (WGHM, PCR-GLOBWB, GLDAS NOAH, MOSAIC, VIC, CLM, and CLSM) to trends from three Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite solutions in 186 river b ...[more]

PMID: 29358394

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Project description:Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) vertical displacements measuring the elastic response of Earth's crust to changes in hydrologic mass have been used to produce terrestrial water storage change (∆TWS) estimates for studying both annual ∆TWS as well as multi-year trends. However, these estimates require a high observation station density and minimal contamination by nonhydrologic deformation sources. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) is another satellite-based measurement system that can be used to measure regional TWS fluctuations. The satellites provide highly accurate ∆TWS estimates with global coverage but have a low spatial resolution of ∼400 km. Here, we put forward the mathematical framework for a joint inversion of GNSS vertical displacement time series with GRACE ∆TWS to produce more accurate spatiotemporal maps of ∆TWS, accounting for the observation errors, data gaps, and nonhydrologic signals. We aim to utilize the regional sensitivity to ∆TWS provided by GRACE mascon solutions with higher spatial resolution provided by GNSS observations. Our approach utilizes a continuous wavelet transform to decompose signals into their building blocks and separately invert for long-term and short-term mass variations. This allows us to preserve trends, annual, interannual, and multi-year changes in TWS that were previously challenging to capture by satellite-based measurement systems or hydrological models, alone. We focus our study in California, USA, which has a dense GNSS network and where recurrent, intense droughts put pressure on freshwater supplies. We highlight the advantages of our joint inversion results for a tectonically active study region by comparing them against inversion results that use only GNSS vertical deformation as well as with maps of ∆TWS from hydrological models and other GRACE solutions. We find that our joint inversion framework results in a solution that is regionally consistent with the GRACE ∆TWS solutions at different temporal scales but has an increased spatial resolution that allows us to differentiate between regions of high and low mass change better than using GRACE alone.

Dataset Information

Global models underestimate large decadal declining and rising water storage trends relative to GRACE satellite data.

Publications

Global models underestimate large decadal declining and rising water storage trends relative to GRACE satellite data.

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