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Prediction of Long-term Cognitive Decline Following Postoperative Delirium in Older Adults.

ABSTRACT: Background :Increasing evidence suggests that postoperative delirium may result in long-term cognitive decline among older adults. Risk factors for such cognitive decline are unknown. Methods :We studied 126 older participants without delirium or dementia upon entering the Successful AGing After Elective Surgery (SAGES) study, who developed postoperative delirium and completed repeated cognitive assessments (up to 36 months of follow-up). Pre-surgical factors were assessed preoperatively and divided into nine groupings of related factors ("domains"). Delirium was evaluated at baseline and daily during hospitalization using the Confusion Assessment Method diagnostic algorithm, and cognitive function was assessed using a neuropsychological battery and the Informant Questionnaire for Cognitive Decline in the Elderly (IQCODE) at baseline and 6-month intervals over 3 years. Linear regression was used to examine associations between potential risk factors and rate of long-term cognitive decline over time. A domain-specific and then overall selection method based on adjusted R2 values was used to identify explanatory factors for the outcome. Results :The General Cognitive Performance (GCP) score (combining all neuropsychological test scores), IQCODE score, and living alone were significantly associated with long-term cognitive decline. GCP score explained the most variation in rate of cognitive decline (13%), and six additional factors-IQCODE score, cognitive independent activities of daily living impairment, living alone, cerebrovascular disease, Charlson comorbidity index score, and exhaustion level-in combination explained 32% of variation in this outcome. Conclusions :Global cognitive performance was most strongly associated with long-term cognitive decline following delirium. Pre-surgical factors may substantially predict this outcome.

SUBMITTER: Devore EE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5861861 | biostudies-other | 2017 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Prediction of Long-term Cognitive Decline Following Postoperative Delirium in Older Adults.

Devore Elizabeth E EE Fong Tamara G TG Marcantonio Edward R ER Schmitt Eva M EM Travison Thomas G TG Jones Richard N RN Inouye Sharon K SK

The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences 20171101 12

<h4>Background</h4>Increasing evidence suggests that postoperative delirium may result in long-term cognitive decline among older adults. Risk factors for such cognitive decline are unknown.<h4>Methods</h4>We studied 126 older participants without delirium or dementia upon entering the Successful AGing After Elective Surgery (SAGES) study, who developed postoperative delirium and completed repeated cognitive assessments (up to 36 months of follow-up). Pre-surgical factors were assessed preoperat ...[more]

PMID: 28329149

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Project description:ImportanceDelirium is associated with increased hospital costs, health care complications, and increased mortality. Long-term consequences of delirium on cognition have not been synthesized and quantified via meta-analysis.ObjectiveTo determine if an episode of delirium was an independent risk factor for long-term cognitive decline, and if it was, whether it was causative or an epiphenomenon in already compromised individuals.Data sourcesA systematic search in PubMed, Cochrane, and Embase was conducted from January 1, 1965, to December 31, 2018. A systematic review guided by Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses was conducted. Search terms included delirium AND postoperative cognitive dysfunction; delirium and cognitive decline; delirium AND dementia; and delirium AND memory.Study selectionInclusion criteria for studies included contrast between groups with delirium and without delirium; an objective continuous or binary measure of cognitive outcome; a final time point of 3 or more months after the delirium episode. The electronic search was conducted according to established methodologies and was executed on October 17, 2018.Data extraction and synthesisThree authors extracted data on individual characteristics, study design, and outcome, followed by a second independent check on outcome measures. Effect sizes were calculated as Hedges g. If necessary, binary outcomes were also converted to g. Only a single effect size was calculated for each study.Main outcomes and measuresThe planned main outcome was magnitude of cognitive decline in Hedges g effect size in delirium groups when contrasted with groups that did not experience delirium.ResultsOf 1583 articles, data subjected from the 24 studies (including 3562 patients who experienced delirium and 6987 controls who did not) were included in a random-effects meta-analysis for pooled effect estimates and random-effects meta-regressions to identify sources of study variance. One study was excluded as an outlier. There was a significant association between delirium and long-term cognitive decline, as the estimated effect size (Hedges g) for 23 studies was 0.45 (95% CI, 0.34-0.57; P < .001). In all studies, the group that experienced delirium had worse cognition at the final time point. The I2 measure of between-study variability in g was 0.81. A multivariable meta-regression suggested that duration of follow-up (longer with larger gs), number of covariates controlled (greater numbers were associated with smaller gs), and baseline cognitive matching (matching was associated with larger gs) were significant sources of variance. More specialized subgroup and meta-regressions were consistent with predictions that suggested that delirium may be a causative factor in cognitive decline.Conclusions and relevanceIn this meta-analysis, delirium was significantly associated with long-term cognitive decline in both surgical and nonsurgical patients.

Project description:BackgroundPostoperative cognitive dysfunction (POCD) and delirium are the most common perioperative cognitive complications in older adults undergoing surgery. A recent study of cardiac surgery patients suggests that physical frailty is a risk factor for both complications. We sought to examine the relationship between preoperative frailty and postoperative delirium and preoperative frailty and POCD after major noncardiac surgery.MethodsWe performed a prospective cohort study of patients >65 years old having major elective noncardiac surgery with general anesthesia. Exclusion criteria were preexisting dementia, inability to consent, cardiac, intracranial, or emergency surgery. Preoperative frailty was determined using the FRAIL scale, a simple questionnaire that categorizes patients as robust, prefrail, or frail. Delirium was assessed with the Confusion Assessment Method for the intensive care unit (CAM-ICU) twice daily, starting in the recovery room until hospital discharge. All patients were assessed with neuropsychological tests (California Verbal Learning Test II, Trail Making Test, subtests from the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale, Logical Memory Story A, Immediate and Delayed Recall, Animal and Vegetable verbal fluency, Boston Naming Test, and the Mini-Mental Status Examination) before surgery and at 3 months afterward.ResultsA total of 178 patients met inclusion criteria; 167 underwent major surgery and 150 were available for follow-up 3 months after surgery. The median age was 70 years old. Thirty-one patients (18.6%) tested as frail, and 72 (43.1%) prefrail before surgery. After adjustment for baseline cognitive score, age, education, surgery duration, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status, type of surgery, and sex, patients who tested frail or prefrail had an estimated 2.7 times the odds of delirium (97.5% confidence interval, 1.0-7.3) when compared to patients who were robust. There was no significant difference between the proportion of POCD between patients who tested as frail, prefrail, or robust.ConclusionsAfter adjustment for baseline cognition, testing as frail or prefrail with the FRAIL scale is associated with increased odds of postoperative delirium, but not POCD after noncardiac surgery.

Project description:BackgroundHere, we address a pivotal factor in Alzheimer's prevention-identifying those at risk early, when dementia can still be avoided. Recent research highlights an accelerated forgetting phenotype as a risk factor for Alzheimer's disease. We hypothesized that delayed recall over 4 weeks would predict cognitive decline over 1 year better than 30-min delayed recall, the current gold standard for detecting episodic memory problems which could be an early clinical manifestation of incipient Alzheimer's disease. We also expected hippocampal subfield volumes to improve predictive accuracy.MethodsForty-six cognitively healthy older people (mean age 70.7 ± 7.97, 21/46 female), recruited from databases such as Join Dementia Research, or a local database of volunteers, performed 3 memory tasks on which delayed recall was tested after 30 min and 4 weeks, as well as Addenbrooke's Cognitive Examination III (ACE-III) and CANTAB Paired Associates Learning. Medial temporal lobe subregion volumes were automatically measured using high-resolution 3T MRI. The ACE-III was repeated after 12 months to assess the change in cognitive ability. We used univariate linear regressions and ROC curves to assess the ability of tests of delayed recall to predict cognitive decline on ACE-III over the 12 months.ResultsFifteen of the 46 participants declined over the year (≥ 3 points lost on ACE-III). Four-week verbal memory predicted cognitive decline in healthy older people better than clinical gold standard memory tests and hippocampal MRI. The best single-test predictor of cognitive decline was the 4-week delayed recall on the world list (R2 = .123, p = .018, β = .418). Combined with hippocampal subfield volumetry, 4-week verbal recall identifies those at risk of cognitive decline with 93% sensitivity and 86% specificity (AUC = .918, p < .0001).ConclusionsWe show that a test of accelerated long-term forgetting over 4 weeks can predict cognitive decline in healthy older people where traditional tests of delayed recall cannot. Accelerated long-term forgetting is a sensitive, easy-to-test predictor of cognitive decline in healthy older people. Used alone or with hippocampal MRI, accelerated forgetting probes functionally relevant Alzheimer's-related change. Accelerated forgetting will identify early-stage impairment, helping to target more invasive and expensive molecular biomarker testing.

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Prediction of Long-term Cognitive Decline Following Postoperative Delirium in Older Adults.

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Prediction of Long-term Cognitive Decline Following Postoperative Delirium in Older Adults.

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