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Projecting the effects of tobacco control policies in the USA through microsimulation: a study protocol.

ABSTRACT: INTRODUCTION:Smoking remains the leading cause of preventable death in the USA but can be reduced through policy interventions. Computational models of smoking can provide estimates of the projected impact of tobacco control policies and can be used to inform public health decision making. We outline a protocol for simulating the effects of tobacco policies on population health outcomes. METHODS AND ANALYSIS:We extend the Smoking History Generator (SHG), a microsimulation model based on data from the National Health Interview Surveys, to evaluate the effects of tobacco control policies on projections of smoking prevalence and mortality in the USA. The SHG simulates individual life trajectories including smoking initiation, cessation and mortality. We illustrate the application of the SHG policy module for four types of tobacco control policies at the national and state levels: smoke-free air laws, cigarette taxes, increasing tobacco control programme expenditures and raising the minimum age of legal access to tobacco. Smoking initiation and cessation rates are modified by age, birth cohort, gender and years since policy implementation. Initiation and cessation rate modifiers are adjusted for differences across age groups and the level of existing policy coverage. Smoking prevalence, the number of population deaths avoided, and life-years gained are calculated for each policy scenario at the national and state levels. The model only considers direct individual benefits through reduced smoking and does not consider benefits through reduced exposure to secondhand smoke. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION:A web-based interface is being developed to integrate the results of the simulations into a format that allows the user to explore the projected effects of tobacco control policies in the USA. Usability testing is being conducted in which experts provide feedback on the interface. Development of this tool is under way, and a publicly accessible website is available at http://www.tobaccopolicyeffects.org.

SUBMITTER: Tam J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5875683 | biostudies-other | 2018 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Projecting the effects of tobacco control policies in the USA through microsimulation: a study protocol.

Tam Jamie J Levy David T DT Jeon Jihyoun J Clarke John J Gilkeson Scott S Hall Tim T Feuer Eric J EJ Holford Theodore R TR Meza Rafael R

BMJ open 20180323 3

<h4>Introduction</h4>Smoking remains the leading cause of preventable death in the USA but can be reduced through policy interventions. Computational models of smoking can provide estimates of the projected impact of tobacco control policies and can be used to inform public health decision making. We outline a protocol for simulating the effects of tobacco policies on population health outcomes.<h4>Methods and analysis</h4>We extend the Smoking History Generator (SHG), a microsimulation model ba ...[more]

PMID: 29574440

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Project description:IntroductionSmokeless tobacco (ST) was consumed by 356 million people globally in 2017. Recent evidence shows that ST consumption is responsible for an estimated 652 494 all-cause deaths across the globe annually. The WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) was negotiated in 2003 and ratified in 2005 to implement effective tobacco control measures. While the policy measures enacted through various tobacco control laws have been effective in reducing the incidence and prevalence of smoking, the impact of ST-related policies (within WHO FCTC and beyond) on ST use is under-researched and not collated.Methods and analysisA systematic review will be conducted to collate all available ST-related policies implemented across various countries and assess their impact on ST use. The following databases will be searched: Medline, EMBASE, PsycINFO, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Scopus, EconLit, ISI Web of Science, Cochrane Library (CENTRAL), African Index Medicus, LILACS, Scientific Electronic Library Online, Index Medicus for the Eastern Mediterranean Region, Index Medicus for South-East Asia Region, Western Pacific Region Index Medicus and WHO Library Database, as well as Google search engine and country-specific government websites. All ST-related policy documents (FCTC and non-FCTC) will be included. Results will be limited to literature published since 2005 in English and regional languages (Bengali, Hindi and Urdu). Two reviewers will independently employ two-stage screening to determine inclusion. The Effective Public Health Practice Project's 'Quality Assessment Tool for Quantitative Studies' will be used to record ratings of quality and risk of bias among studies selected for inclusion. Data will be extracted using a standardised form. Meta-analysis and narrative synthesis will be used.Ethics and disseminationPermission for ethics exemption of the review was obtained from the Centre for Chronic Disease Control's Institutional Ethics Committee, India (CCDC_IEC_06_2020; dated 16 April 2020). The results will be disseminated through publications in a peer-reviewed journal and will be presented in national and international conferences.Prospero registration numberCRD42020191946.

Project description:IntroductionThere are ongoing policies and programs to reduce tobacco use and minimise the associated health burden in India. However, there are several challenges in practice leading to different outcomes across Indian states. Inadequate understanding of how national tobacco control policies achieve their results under varied circumstances obstruct the implementation and scaling up of effective strategies. This study is a realist evaluation using largely qualitative methods to understand the implementation process of India's tobacco control policies. It will do so by evaluating India's Cigarettes and Other Tobacco Products Act (COTPA) and the National Tobacco Control Program (NTCP). The study aims to examine how, why, for whom and under which circumstances COTPA and NTCP are implemented in India.Methods and analysisA realist synthesis on implementation of tobacco control policies in low-income and middle-income countries is conducted. This is followed by qualitative data collection and analysis in three Indian states selected based on data from two rounds of the Global Adult Tobacco Survey. The study comprises of three steps (1): development of initial programme theories, (2) testing and refinement of initial programme theories and (3) testing and validation of refined programme theories. We will interview policy-makers, programme managers and implementers to identify facilitators and barriers of implementation. The purpose is to identify context-specific evidence-based strategies to gain insights into the implementation process of COTPA and NTCP. Further we aim to contribute to tobacco control research by establishing communities of practice to engage with cross-cutting issues.Ethics and disseminationThe Institutional Ethics Committee, at the Institute of Public Health (Bengaluru), has approved the protocol. Written informed consent forms will be obtained from all the participants. Dissemination has been planned for researchers, policy-makers and implementers as well as the public through peer-reviewed publications, conference presentation, webinars and social media updates.Prospero registration numberCRD42020191541.

Project description:It is unclear whether the benefits of tobacco control policies extend to pregnant women and infants, especially among racial/ethnic minority and low socioeconomic populations that are at highest risk for adverse birth outcomes.To examine the associations of state cigarette taxes and the enactment of smoke-free legislation with US birth outcomes according to maternal race/ethnicity and education.Using a quasi-experimental approach, we analyzed repeated cross sections of US natality files with 16,198,654 singleton births from 28 states and Washington, DC, between 2000 and 2010. We first used probit regression to model the associations of 2 tobacco control policies with the probability that a pregnant woman smoked (yes or no). We then used linear or probit regression to estimate the associations of the policies with birth outcomes. We also examined the association of taxes with birth outcomes across maternal race/ethnicity and education.State cigarette taxes and smoke-free restaurant legislation.Birth weight (in grams), low birth weight (<2500 g), preterm delivery (<37 weeks), small for gestational age (<10th percentile for gestational age and sex), and large for gestational age (>90th percentile for gestational age and sex).White and black mothers with the least amount of education (0-11 years) had the highest prevalence of maternal smoking during pregnancy (42.4% and 20.0%, respectively) and the poorest birth outcomes, but the strongest responses to cigarette taxes. Among white mothers with a low level of education, every $1.00 increase in the cigarette tax reduced the level of smoking by 2.4 percentage points (-0.0024 [95% CI, -0.0004 to -0.0001]), and the birth weight of their infants increased by 5.41 g (95% CI, 1.92-8.89 g). Among black mothers with a low level of education, tax increases reduced smoking by 2.1 percentage points (-0.0021 [95% CI, -0.0003 to -0.0001]), and the birth weight of their infants increased by 3.98 g (95% CI, 1.91-6.04 g). Among these mothers, tax increases also reduced the risk of having low-birth-weight, preterm, and small-for-gestational-age babies, but increased the risk of having large-for-gestational-age babies. Associations were weaker among higher-educated black women and largely null among higher educated white women and other groups. We did not find evidence for an association of smoke-free restaurant legislation with birth outcomes.Increases in the cigarette tax are associated with improved health outcomes related to smoking among the highest-risk mothers and infants. Considering that US states increase cigarette taxes for reasons other than to improve birth outcomes, these findings are welcome by-products of state policies.

Project description:ObjectiveTo estimate the impact and equity of existing and potential UK salt reduction policies on primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and gastric cancer (GCa) in England.DesignA microsimulation study of a close-to-reality synthetic population. In the first period, 2003-2015, we compared the impact of current policy against a counterfactual 'no intervention' scenario, which assumed salt consumption persisted at 2003 levels. For 2016-2030, we assumed additional legislative policies could achieve a steeper salt decline and we compared this against the counterfactual scenario that the downward trend in salt consumption observed between 2001 and 2011 would continue up to 2030.SettingSynthetic population with similar characteristics to the non-institutionalised population of England.ParticipantsSynthetic individuals with traits informed by the Health Survey for England.Main measureCVD and GCa cases and deaths prevented or postponed, stratified by fifths of socioeconomic status using the Index of Multiple Deprivation.ResultsSince 2003, current salt policies have prevented or postponed ∼52 000 CVD cases (IQR: 34 000-76 000) and 10 000 CVD deaths (IQR: 3000-17 000). In addition, the current policies have prevented ∼5000 new cases of GCa (IQR: 2000-7000) resulting in about 2000 fewer deaths (IQR: 0-4000). This policy did not reduce socioeconomic inequalities in CVD, and likely increased inequalities in GCa. Additional legislative policies from 2016 could further prevent or postpone ∼19 000 CVD cases (IQR: 8000-30 000) and 3600 deaths by 2030 (IQR: -400-8100) and may reduce inequalities. Similarly for GCa, 1200 cases (IQR: -200-3000) and 700 deaths (IQR: -900-2300) could be prevented or postponed with a neutral impact on inequalities.ConclusionsCurrent salt reduction policies are powerfully effective in reducing the CVD and GCa burdens overall but fail to reduce the inequalities involved. Additional structural policies could achieve further, more equitable health benefits.

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Projecting the effects of tobacco control policies in the USA through microsimulation: a study protocol.

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Projecting the effects of tobacco control policies in the USA through microsimulation: a study protocol.

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