Dataset Information

Influence of infectious disease seasonality on the performance of the outbreak detection algorithm in the China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System.

ABSTRACT: Objective The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention developed the China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System (CIDARS) in 2008. The CIDARS can detect outbreak signals in a timely manner but generates many false-positive signals, especially for diseases with seasonality. We assessed the influence of seasonality on infectious disease outbreak detection performance. Methods Chickenpox surveillance data in Songjiang District, Shanghai were used. The optimized early alert thresholds for chickenpox were selected according to three algorithm evaluation indexes: sensitivity (Se), false alarm rate (FAR), and time to detection (TTD). Performance of selected proper thresholds was assessed by data external to the study period. Results The optimized early alert threshold for chickenpox during the epidemic season was the percentile P65, which demonstrated an Se of 93.33%, FAR of 0%, and TTD of 0 days. The optimized early alert threshold in the nonepidemic season was P50, demonstrating an Se of 100%, FAR of 18.94%, and TTD was 2.5 days. The performance evaluation demonstrated that the use of an optimized threshold adjusted for seasonality could reduce the FAR and shorten the TTD. Conclusions Selection of optimized early alert thresholds based on local infectious disease seasonality could improve the performance of the CIDARS.

SUBMITTER: Wang R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6011277 | biostudies-other | 2018 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Influence of infectious disease seasonality on the performance of the outbreak detection algorithm in the China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System.

Wang Ruiping R Jiang Yonggen Y Guo Xiaoqin X Wu Yiling Y Zhao Genming G

The Journal of international medical research 20170721 1

Objective The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention developed the China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System (CIDARS) in 2008. The CIDARS can detect outbreak signals in a timely manner but generates many false-positive signals, especially for diseases with seasonality. We assessed the influence of seasonality on infectious disease outbreak detection performance. Methods Chickenpox surveillance data in Songjiang District, Shanghai were used. The optimized early alert ...[more]

PMID: 28728470

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Outbreaks of respiratory infectious diseases often occur in crowded places. To understand the pattern of spread of an outbreak of a respiratory infectious disease and provide a theoretical basis for targeted implementation of scientific prevention and control, we attempted to establish a stochastic model to simulate an outbreak of a respiratory infectious disease at a military camp. This model fits the general pattern of disease transmission and further enriches theories on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. METHODS:We established an enclosed system of 500 people exposed to adenovirus type 7 (ADV 7) in a military camp. During the infection period, the patients transmitted the virus randomly to susceptible people. The spread of the epidemic under militarized management mode was simulated using a computer model named "the random collision model", and the effects of factors such as the basic reproductive number (R0), time of isolation of the patients (TOI), interval between onset and isolation (IOI), and immunization rates (IR) on the developmental trend of the epidemic were quantitatively analysed. RESULTS:Once the R0 exceeded 1.5, the median attack rate increased sharply; when R0 = 3, with a delay in the TOI, the attack rate increased gradually and eventually remained stable. When the IOI exceeded 2.3 days, the median attack rate also increased dramatically. When the IR exceeded 0.5, the median attack rate approached zero. The median generation time was 8.26 days, (95% confidence interval [CI]: 7.84-8.69 days). The partial rank correlation coefficients between the attack rate of the epidemic and R0, TOI, IOI, and IR were 0.61, 0.17, 0.45, and - 0.27, respectively. CONCLUSIONS:The random collision model not only simulates how an epidemic spreads with superior precision but also allows greater flexibility in setting the activities of the exposure population and different types of infectious diseases, which is conducive to furthering exploration of the epidemiological characteristics of epidemic outbreaks.

Project description:ObjectivesOutcome of endovascular treatment in acute ischemic stroke patients depends on collateral circulation to provide blood supply to the ischemic territory. We evaluated the performance of a commercially available algorithm for assessing the collateral score (CS) in acute ischemic stroke patients.MethodsRetrospectively, baseline CTA scans (≤ 3-mm slice thickness) with an intracranial carotid artery (ICA), middle cerebral artery segment M1 or M2 occlusion, from the MR CLEAN Registry (n = 1627) were evaluated. All CTA scans were evaluated for visual CS (0-3) by eight expert radiologists (reference standard). A Web-based AI algorithm quantified the collateral circulation (0-100%) for correctly detected occlusion sides. Agreement between visual CS and categorized automated CS (0: 0%, 1: > 0- ≤ 50%, 2: > 50- < 100%, 3: 100%) was assessed. Area under the curve (AUC) values for classifying patients in having good (CS: 2-3) versus poor (CS: 0-1) collaterals and for predicting functional independence (90-day modified Rankin Scale 0-2) were computed. Influence of CTA acquisition timing after contrast material administration was reported.ResultsIn the analyzed scans (n = 1024), 59% agreement was found between visual CS and automated CS. An AUC of 0.87 (95% CI: 0.85-0.90) was found for discriminating good versus poor CS. Timing of CTA acquisition did not influence discriminatory performance. AUC for predicting functional independence was 0.66 (95% CI 0.62-0.69) for automated CS, similar to visual CS 0.64 (95% CI 0.61-0.68).ConclusionsThe automated CS performs similar to radiologists in determining a good versus poor collateral score and predicting functional independence in acute ischemic stroke patients with a large vessel occlusion.Key points• Software for automated quantification of intracerebral collateral circulation on computed tomography angiography performs similar to expert radiologists in determining a good versus poor collateral score. • Software for automated quantification of intracerebral collateral circulation on computed tomography angiography performs similar to expert radiologists in predicting functional independence in acute ischemic stroke patients with a large vessel occlusion. • The timing of computed tomography angiography acquisition after contrast material administration did not influence the performance of automated quantification of the collateral status.

Dataset Information

Influence of infectious disease seasonality on the performance of the outbreak detection algorithm in the China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System.

Publications

Influence of infectious disease seasonality on the performance of the outbreak detection algorithm in the China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System.

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