Dataset Information

Plasticity reveals hidden resistance to extinction under climate change in the global hotspot of salamander diversity.

ABSTRACT: Extinction rates are predicted to rise exponentially under climate warming, but many of these predictions ignore physiological and behavioral plasticity that might buffer species from extinction. We evaluated the potential for physiological acclimatization and behavioral avoidance of poor climatic conditions to lower extinction risk under climate change in the global hotspot of salamander diversity, a region currently predicted to lose most of the salamander habitat due to warming. Our approach integrated experimental physiology and behavior into a mechanistic species distribution model to predict extinction risk based on an individual's capacity to maintain energy balance with and without plasticity. We assessed the sensitivity of extinction risk to body size, behavioral strategies, limitations on energy intake, and physiological acclimatization of water loss and metabolic rate. The field and laboratory experiments indicated that salamanders readily acclimatize water loss rates and metabolic rates in ways that could maintain positive energy balance. Projections with plasticity reduced extinction risk by 72% under climate warming, especially in the core of their range. Further analyses revealed that juveniles might experience the greatest physiological stress under climate warming, but we identified specific physiological adaptations or plastic responses that could minimize the lethal physiological stress imposed on juveniles. We conclude that incorporating plasticity fundamentally alters ecological predictions under climate change by reducing extinction risk in the hotspot of salamander diversity.

SUBMITTER: Riddell EA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6047487 | biostudies-other | 2018 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Plasticity reveals hidden resistance to extinction under climate change in the global hotspot of salamander diversity.

Riddell Eric A EA Odom Jonathan P JP Damm Jason D JD Sears Michael W MW

Science advances 20180711 7

Extinction rates are predicted to rise exponentially under climate warming, but many of these predictions ignore physiological and behavioral plasticity that might buffer species from extinction. We evaluated the potential for physiological acclimatization and behavioral avoidance of poor climatic conditions to lower extinction risk under climate change in the global hotspot of salamander diversity, a region currently predicted to lose most of the salamander habitat due to warming. Our approach ...[more]

PMID: 30014037

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Project description:BackgroundSignificant shifts in climate are considered a threat to plants and animals with significant physiological limitations and limited dispersal abilities. The southern Appalachian Mountains are a global hotspot for plethodontid salamander diversity. Plethodontids are lungless ectotherms, so their ecology is strongly governed by temperature and precipitation. Many plethodontid species in southern Appalachia exist in high elevation habitats that may be at or near their thermal maxima, and may also have limited dispersal abilities across warmer valley bottoms.Methodology/principal findingsWe used a maximum-entropy approach (program Maxent) to model the suitable climatic habitat of 41 plethodontid salamander species inhabiting the Appalachian Highlands region (33 individual species and eight species included within two species complexes). We evaluated the relative change in suitable climatic habitat for these species in the Appalachian Highlands from the current climate to the years 2020, 2050, and 2080, using both the HADCM3 and the CGCM3 models, each under low and high CO(2) scenarios, and using two-model thresholds levels (relative suitability thresholds for determining suitable/unsuitable range), for a total of 8 scenarios per species.Conclusion/significanceWhile models differed slightly, every scenario projected significant declines in suitable habitat within the Appalachian Highlands as early as 2020. Species with more southern ranges and with smaller ranges had larger projected habitat loss. Despite significant differences in projected precipitation changes to the region, projections did not differ significantly between global circulation models. CO(2) emissions scenario and model threshold had small effects on projected habitat loss by 2020, but did not affect longer-term projections. Results of this study indicate that choice of model threshold and CO(2) emissions scenario affect short-term projected shifts in climatic distributions of species; however, these factors and choice of global circulation model have relatively small affects on what is significant projected loss of habitat for many salamander species that currently occupy the Appalachian Highlands.

Project description:The ability of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) populations to adapt to the ongoing climate change is especially important in the southern part of Europe, where environmental change is expected to be more intense. In this study, we tested the existing adaptive potential of eight beech populations from two provenances in N.E. Greece (Evros and Drama) that show differences in their environmental conditions and biogeographical background. Seedling survival, growth and leaf phenological traits were selected as adaptive traits and were measured under simulated controlled climate change conditions in a growth chamber. Seedling survival was also tested under current conditions in the field. In the growth chamber, simulated conditions of temperature and precipitation for the year 2050 were applied for 3 years, under two different irrigation schemes, where the same amount of water was distributed either frequently (once every week) or non-frequently (once in 20 days). The results showed that beech seedlings were generally able to survive under climate change conditions and showed adaptive differences among provenances and populations. Furthermore, changes in the duration of the growing season of seedlings were recorded in the growth chamber, allowing them to avoid environmental stress and high selection pressure. Differences were observed between populations and provenances in terms of temporal distribution patterns of precipitation and temperature, rather than the average annual or monthly values of these measures. Additionally, different adaptive strategies appeared among beech seedlings when the same amount of water was distributed differently within each month. This indicates that the physiological response mechanisms of beech individuals are very complex and depend on several interacting parameters. For this reason, the choice of beech provenances for translocation and use in afforestation or reforestation projects should consider the small scale ecotypic diversity of the species and view multiple environmental and climatic parameters in connection to each other.

Dataset Information

Plasticity reveals hidden resistance to extinction under climate change in the global hotspot of salamander diversity.

Publications

Plasticity reveals hidden resistance to extinction under climate change in the global hotspot of salamander diversity.

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