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Beneficial effects of climate warming on boreal tree growth may be transitory.


ABSTRACT: Predicted increases in temperature and aridity across the boreal forest region have the potential to alter timber supply and carbon sequestration. Given the widely-observed variation in species sensitivity to climate, there is an urgent need to develop species-specific predictive models that can account for local conditions. Here, we matched the growth of 270,000 trees across a 761,100?km2 region with detailed site-level data to quantify the growth responses of the seven most common boreal tree species in Eastern Canada to changes in climate. Accounting for spatially-explicit species-specific responses, we find that while 2?°C of warming may increase overall forest productivity by 13?±?3% (mean?±?SE) in the absence of disturbance, additional warming could reverse this trend and lead to substantial declines exacerbated by reductions in water availability. Our results confirm the transitory nature of warming-induced growth benefits in the boreal forest and highlight the vulnerability of the ecosystem to excess warming and drying.

SUBMITTER: D'Orangeville L 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6086880 | biostudies-other | 2018 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Beneficial effects of climate warming on boreal tree growth may be transitory.

D'Orangeville Loïc L   Houle Daniel D   Duchesne Louis L   Phillips Richard P RP   Bergeron Yves Y   Kneeshaw Daniel D  

Nature communications 20180810 1


Predicted increases in temperature and aridity across the boreal forest region have the potential to alter timber supply and carbon sequestration. Given the widely-observed variation in species sensitivity to climate, there is an urgent need to develop species-specific predictive models that can account for local conditions. Here, we matched the growth of 270,000 trees across a 761,100 km<sup>2</sup> region with detailed site-level data to quantify the growth responses of the seven most common b  ...[more]

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