Dataset Information

Mismeasured mortality: correcting estimates of wolf poaching in the United States.

ABSTRACT: Measuring rates and causes of mortalities is important in animal ecology and management. Observing the fates of known individuals is a common method of estimating life history variables, including mortality patterns. It has long been assumed that data lost when known animals disappear were unbiased. We test and reject this assumption under conditions common to most, if not all, studies using marked animals. We illustrate the bias for 4 endangered wolf populations in the United States by reanalyzing data and assumptions about the known and unknown fates of marked wolves to calculate the degree to which risks of different causes of death were mismeasured. We find that, when using traditional methods, the relative risk of mortality from legal killing measured as a proportion of all known fates was overestimated by 0.05-0.16 and the relative risk of poaching was underestimated by 0.17-0.44. We show that published government estimates are affected by these biases and, importantly, are underestimating the risk of poaching. The underestimates have obscured the magnitude of poaching as the major threat to endangered wolf populations. We offer methods to correct estimates of mortality risk for marked animals of any taxon and describe the conditions under which traditional methods produce more or less bias. We also show how correcting past and future estimates of mortality parameters can address uncertainty about wildlife populations and increase the predictability and sustainability of wildlife management interventions.

SUBMITTER: Treves A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6093422 | biostudies-other | 2017 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Mismeasured mortality: correcting estimates of wolf poaching in the United States.

Treves Adrian A Artelle Kyle A KA Darimont Chris T CT Parsons David R DR

Journal of mammalogy 20170519 5

Measuring rates and causes of mortalities is important in animal ecology and management. Observing the fates of known individuals is a common method of estimating life history variables, including mortality patterns. It has long been assumed that data lost when known animals disappear were unbiased. We test and reject this assumption under conditions common to most, if not all, studies using marked animals. We illustrate the bias for 4 endangered wolf populations in the United States by reanalyz ...[more]

PMID: 30135609

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Project description:Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) remains a leading cause of disability and death in the United States. The "COPD in the United States" project gathered data about the impact of COPD to highlight variability across states and provide a single point of access to data for state decision makers, the public health community and advocates. This report provides a summary of COPD-related morbidity and mortality in the United States and individual states during 2014-2015 (some metrics contain data from other years). Methods: We used data from multiple sources ( the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System [BRFSS], the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Wide-ranging ONline Data for Epidemiologic Research online database, the CDC's chronic disease indicators data, Centers from Medicare and Medicaid Services Chronic Conditions Data Warehouse, Medical Expenditures Panel Survey and the American Association of Cardiovascular and Pulmonary Rehabilitation Pulmonary Rehabilitation Directory) to estimate 10 national and state-specific COPD metrics (prevalence, hospitalizations and emergency department visits, 30-day hospital readmissions, mortality, vaccinations, smoking prevalence, per capita medical cost, and the number of COPD patients per a pulmonary rehabilitation program) and to calculate average score across the 10 metrics. Additionally, we used BRFSS data to calculate the prevalence of common comorbid diseases among people who also report having a diagnosis of COPD. Results: During 2014-2015, 5.9% of adults (more than 15.9 million) reported having been told by their health care professional that they had COPD. The age-adjusted prevalence ranged from 3.7% for Puerto Rico and Hawaii, to 12% for West Virginia. The average score, 1 being best and 5 being worst, of the overall COPD burden based on the 10 key metrics ranged from 1.5 for Puerto Rico and Utah to 4.6 for West Virginia. Conclusion: The level of COPD morbidity and mortality is severe throughout the United States. There is considerable variability in COPD metrics by state. These differences may be useful in identifying and addressing policy gaps in the public health approach to COPD and in implementing the COPD National Action Plan.

Dataset Information

Mismeasured mortality: correcting estimates of wolf poaching in the United States.

Publications

Mismeasured mortality: correcting estimates of wolf poaching in the United States.

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