Dataset Information

A dynamic model of transmission and elimination of peste des petits ruminants in Ethiopia.

ABSTRACT: Peste des petits ruminants (PPR), a devastating viral disease of sheep and goats, has been targeted by the global community for eradication within the next 15 years. Although an efficacious attenuated live vaccine is available, the lack of knowledge about the transmission potential of PPR virus (PPRV) may compromise eradication efforts. By fitting a metapopulation model simulating PPRV spread to the results of a nationwide serological survey in Ethiopia, we estimated the level of viral transmission in an endemic setting and the vaccination coverage required for elimination. Results suggest that the pastoral production system as a whole acts as a viral reservoir, from which PPRV spills over into the sedentary production system, where viral persistence is uncertain. Estimated levels of PPRV transmission indicate that viral spread could be prevented if the proportion of immune small ruminants is kept permanently above 37% in at least 71% of pastoral village populations. However, due to the high turnover of these populations, maintaining the fraction of immune animals above this threshold would require high vaccine coverage within villages, and vaccination campaigns to be conducted annually. Adapting vaccination strategies to the specific characteristics of the local epidemiological context and small ruminant population dynamics would result in optimized allocation of limited resources and increase the likelihood of PPR eradication.

SUBMITTER: Fournie G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6099864 | biostudies-other | 2018 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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A dynamic model of transmission and elimination of peste des petits ruminants in Ethiopia.

Fournié Guillaume G Waret-Szkuta Agnès A Camacho Anton A Yigezu Laike M LM Pfeiffer Dirk U DU Roger François F

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20180727 33

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR), a devastating viral disease of sheep and goats, has been targeted by the global community for eradication within the next 15 years. Although an efficacious attenuated live vaccine is available, the lack of knowledge about the transmission potential of PPR virus (PPRV) may compromise eradication efforts. By fitting a metapopulation model simulating PPRV spread to the results of a nationwide serological survey in Ethiopia, we estimated the level of viral transmiss ...[more]

PMID: 30054316

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Project description:In 2015, the OIE and FAO launched a global eradication programme for Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR). Vaccination is a major component of this strategy yet the costs of implementing a campaign are unknown or based on assumptions without field-based verification necessary for effective economic planning. This study used experiences of attending four PPR vaccination campaigns in Ethiopia to estimate various cost components in pastoral and mixed-crop livestock systems. These components included: cost of vaccine; vaccine transport from the producer to the local storage facility; storage of vaccine at the local facility; delivery and administration of vaccine in the field; opportunity cost of farmer's time to attend the vaccination; co-ordination of vaccination campaign; publicity and mobilisation costs; vaccine wastage from missed shots and vaccine discard. The overall cost of vaccination was approximately 6 Ethiopian birr (ETB) or US$0.2 per animal in the mixed-crop livestock system compared to approximately 3ETB or US$0.1 in pastoral areas. The relative importance of cost components varied in the two systems with farmer time being the largest contributor in the mixed-crop livestock system while field delivery was the main cost in pastoral areas. Notable vaccine wastage was observed particularly through missed shots that were typically between 0 and 10% but as high as 33%. At the national level, the output of the stochastic model showed the cost of vaccination to be highly variable particularly in the mixed-crop livestock system. These results highlight the importance of doing economic assessments of vaccination campaigns and issues that may be compromising efficiency of delivery and vaccine coverage. It is recommended that the framework be used for further economic evaluations of vaccination for PPR and other livestock diseases particularly when limited public or donor funds are being used, and that the approach be expanded to other countries and regions.

Dataset Information

A dynamic model of transmission and elimination of peste des petits ruminants in Ethiopia.

Publications

A dynamic model of transmission and elimination of peste des petits ruminants in Ethiopia.

Similar Datasets

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