Dataset Information

Cold-season disasters on the Eurasian steppes: Climate-driven or man-made.

ABSTRACT: Socio-ecological damage from climate-related disasters has increased worldwide, including a type of cold-season disaster (dzud) that is unique to the Eurasian steppes, notably Mongolia. During 2000-2014, dzuds killed approximately 30 million livestock and impacted the Mongolian socio-economy. The contributions of both natural and social processes to livestock mortality were not previously considered across Mongolia. Here, we consider the contribution of both multiple climate hazards (drought, cold temperatures and snow), and socioeconomic vulnerability (herders' livestock and coping-capacity) to mortality risk. We performed multi-regression analyses for each province using meteorological, livestock and socioeconomic datasets. Our results show that 93.5% of mortality within Mongolia was caused by a combination of multi-hazards (47.3%) and vulnerability (46.2%), suggesting dzuds were both climate- and man-made. However, in high-mortality hotspots, mortality was primarily caused by multi-hazards (drought-induced pasture deficiency and deep-snow). Livestock overpopulation and a lack of coping capacities that caused inadequate preparedness (e.g., hay/forage) were the main vulnerability factors. Frequent and severe multi-hazards greatly increased the mortality risk, while increased vulnerability caused by socioeconomic changes in Mongolia since the 1990s tended to amplify the effects of multi-hazards. Thus, reductions in herder vulnerability within high-mortality hotspots would likely be an effective means of mitigating the risk of future dzuds.

SUBMITTER: Nandintsetseg B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6170381 | biostudies-other | 2018 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Cold-season disasters on the Eurasian steppes: Climate-driven or man-made.

Nandintsetseg Banzragch B Shinoda Masato M Du Chunling C Munkhjargal Erdenebadrakh E

Scientific reports 20181003 1

Socio-ecological damage from climate-related disasters has increased worldwide, including a type of cold-season disaster (dzud) that is unique to the Eurasian steppes, notably Mongolia. During 2000-2014, dzuds killed approximately 30 million livestock and impacted the Mongolian socio-economy. The contributions of both natural and social processes to livestock mortality were not previously considered across Mongolia. Here, we consider the contribution of both multiple climate hazards (drought, co ...[more]

PMID: 30283039

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Triatoma brasiliensis, a triatomine-bug vector of Chagas disease, evolved in the semiarid Caatinga, where it occupies rocky outcrops, shrubby cacti, and human dwellings. Dwellings and rocks are considered high-quality microhabitats for this saxicolous species, whereas cacti probably represent secondary, lower-quality microhabitats. This 'microhabitat-quality hierarchy' hypothesis predicts that T. brasiliensis populations occupying dwellings or rocks should endure harsh environmental conditions better than their cactus-living relatives. METHODS/FINDINGS:We tested this prediction by comparing T. brasiliensis infestation (proportion of microhabitats with bugs), density (bugs per microhabitat), and crowding (bugs per infested microhabitat) in dwellings, rocks, and cacti sampled before and during the extreme drought that ravaged the Caatinga in 2012-2016. We used random-intercepts generalized linear mixed models to account for microhabitat spatial clustering and for variations in bug-catch effort; we assessed model performance and computed model-averaged effect estimates using Akaike's information criterion. Pre-drought infestation was similar across microhabitat types; during the drought, infestation remained stable in dwellings and rocks but dropped in cacti. Pre-drought bug density declined from dwellings to rocks to cacti; an additional decline associated with the drought was largely comparable across microhabitats, albeit perhaps somewhat larger in cacti. Finally, pre-drought bug crowding was higher in dwellings than in rocks or cacti and changed little during the drought-possibly with a downward trend in dwellings and an upward trend in cacti. CONCLUSIONS:Triatoma brasiliensis populations fared better in dwellings and rocks than in cacti during extreme drought. Estimates of microhabitat and drought effects on infestation, density, and crowding suggest that only a few cacti (versus many rocks and dwellings) represent good-quality habitat under such extremely harsh conditions. Our findings provide empirical support to the microhabitat-quality hierarchy hypothesis, and imply that T. brasiliensis can endure extreme climate by exploiting high-quality microhabitats, whether wild or man-made, in the semiarid Caatinga.

Dataset Information

Cold-season disasters on the Eurasian steppes: Climate-driven or man-made.

Publications

Cold-season disasters on the Eurasian steppes: Climate-driven or man-made.

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