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Exploring the emergence and evolution of population patterns of leisure-time physical activity through agent-based modelling.

ABSTRACT: INTRODUCTION:Most interventions aiming to promote leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) at population level showed small or null effects. Approaching the problem from a systems science perspective may shed light on the reasons for these results. We developed an agent-based model to explore how the interactions between psychological attributes and built and social environments may lead to the emergence and evolution of LTPA patterns among adults. METHODS:The modeling process consisted of four stages: (1) conceptual model development, (2) formulation of the agent-based model, (3) parametrization and calibration, and (4) consistency and sensitivity analyses. The model represents a stylized community containing two types of agents: persons and LTPA sites. Persons interact with each other (proximal network and perceived community) and with the built environment (LTPA sites) over time. Decision-making is based on the person's intention to practice LTPA, conditioned to the perceived environment. Each iteration is equivalent to one week and we assessed a period of 10 years. RESULTS:The model was able to reproduce population temporal trends of intention and LTPA reported in the literature. Sensitivity analyses indicated that population patterns and trends of intention and LTPA were highly influenced by the relationship between a person's behavior in the preceding week and his current intention, the person's access to built and social environment, and the density of LTPA sites. CONCLUSIONS:The proposed agent-based model is suitable to explore the emergence and evolution of LTPA patterns among adults, considering the dynamic interaction between individuals' psychological attributes and the built and social environments in which they live. The model is available at https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/J2KAS .

SUBMITTER: Garcia LMT

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6245872 | biostudies-other | 2018 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Exploring the emergence and evolution of population patterns of leisure-time physical activity through agent-based modelling.

Garcia Leandro M T LMT Diez Roux Ana V AV Martins André C R ACR Yang Yong Y Florindo Alex A AA

The international journal of behavioral nutrition and physical activity 20181119 1

<h4>Introduction</h4>Most interventions aiming to promote leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) at population level showed small or null effects. Approaching the problem from a systems science perspective may shed light on the reasons for these results. We developed an agent-based model to explore how the interactions between psychological attributes and built and social environments may lead to the emergence and evolution of LTPA patterns among adults.<h4>Methods</h4>The modeling process consis ...[more]

PMID: 30453997

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Although leisure-time physical activity (PA) contributes to overall health, including pregnancy health, patterns across pregnancy have not been related to birth outcomes. We hypothesized that women with sustained low leisure-time PA would have excess risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes, and that changing patterns across pregnancy (high to low and low to high) may also be related to risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes. METHODS:Nulliparous women (n?=?10,038) were enrolled at 8 centers early in pregnancy (mean gestational age in weeks [SD]?=?12.05 [1.51]. Frequency, duration, and intensity (metabolic equivalents) of up to three leisure activities reported in the first, second and third trimesters were analyzed. Growth mixture modeling was used to identify leisure-time PA patterns across pregnancy. Adverse pregnancy outcomes (preterm birth, [PTB, overall and spontaneous], hypertensive disorders of pregnancy [HDP], gestational diabetes [GDM] and small-for-gestational-age births [SGA]) were assessed via chart abstraction. RESULTS:Five patterns of leisure-time PA across pregnancy were identified: High (35%), low (18%), late decreasing (24%), early decreasing (10%), and early increasing (13%). Women with sustained low leisure-time PA were younger and more likely to be black or Hispanic, obese, or to have smoked prior to pregnancy. Women with low vs. high leisure-time PA patterns had higher rates of PTB (10.4 vs. 7.5), HDP (13.9 vs. 11.4), and GDM (5.7 vs. 3.1, all p?<?0.05). After adjusting for maternal factors (age, race/ethnicity, BMI and smoking), the risk of GDM (Odds ratio 2.00 [95% CI 1.47, 2.73]) remained higher in women with low compared to high patterns. Early and late decreasing leisure-time PA patterns were also associated with higher rates of GDM. In contrast, women with early increasing patterns had rates of GDM similar to the group with high leisure-time PA (3.8% vs. 3.1%, adjusted OR 1.16 [0.81, 1.68]). Adjusted risk of overall PTB (1.31 [1.05, 1.63]) was higher in the low pattern group, but spontaneous PTB, HDP and SGA were not associated with leisure-time PA patterns. CONCLUSIONS:Sustained low leisure-time PA across pregnancy is associated with excess risk of GDM and overall PTB compared to high patterns in nulliparous women. Women with increased leisure-time PA early in pregnancy had low rates of GDM that were similar to women with high patterns, raising the possibility that early pregnancy increases in activity may be associated with improved pregnancy health. TRIAL REGISTRATION:Registration number NCT02231398 .

Project description:BACKGROUND: Physical inactivity is a major public health problem associated with increased mortality risk. It is, however, poorly understood whether vigorous physical activity is more beneficial for reducing mortality risk than activities of lower intensity. The aim of this study was to examine associations of the intensity and volume of leisure-time physical activity with all-cause mortality among middle-aged women and men while considering sociodemographic and health related factors as covariates. METHODS: Questionnaire survey data collected in 2000-02 among 40-60-year-old employees of the City of Helsinki (N = 8960) were linked with register data on mortality (74% gave permission to the linkage) providing a mean follow-up time of 12-years. The analysis included 6429 respondents (79% women). The participants were classified into three groups according to intensity of physical activity: low moderate, high moderate and vigorous. The volume of physical activity was classified into three groups according to tertiles. Cox regression analysis was used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for all-cause mortality. RESULTS: During the follow up 205 participants died. Leisure-time physical activity was associated with reduced risk of mortality. After adjusting for covariates the vigorous group (HR = 0.54, 95% CI 0.34-0.86) showed a reduced risk of mortality compared with the low moderate group whereas for the high moderate group the reductions in mortality risk (HR = 0.72, 95% CI 0.48-1.08) were less clear. Adjusting for the volume of physical activity did not affect the point estimates. Higher volume of leisure-time physical activity was also associated with reduced mortality risk; however, adjusting for the covariates and the intensity of physical activity explained the differences. CONCLUSIONS: For healthy middle-aged women and men who engage in some physical activity vigorous exercise may provide further health benefits preventing premature deaths.

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Exploring the emergence and evolution of population patterns of leisure-time physical activity through agent-based modelling.

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Exploring the emergence and evolution of population patterns of leisure-time physical activity through agent-based modelling.

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