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Risk factors and prediction score for chronic pancreatitis: A nationwide population-based cohort study.

ABSTRACT: To explore the risk factors of developing chronic pancreatitis (CP) in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) and develop a prediction score for CP. Using the National Health Insurance Research Database in Taiwan, we obtained large, population-based data of 5971 eligible patients diagnosed with AP from 2000 to 2013. After excluding patients with obstructive pancreatitis and biliary pancreatitis and those with a follow-up period of less than 1 year, we conducted a multivariate analysis using the data of 3739 patients to identify the risk factors of CP and subsequently develop a scoring system that could predict the development of CP in patients with AP. In addition, we validated the scoring system using a validation cohort. Among the study subjects, 142 patients (12.98%) developed CP among patients with RAP. On the other hand, only 32 patients (1.21%) developed CP among patients with only one episode of AP. The multivariate analysis revealed that the presence of recurrent AP (RAP), alcoholism, smoking habit, and age of onset of < 55 years were the four important risk factors for CP. We developed a scoring system (risk score 1 and risk score 2) from the derivation cohort by classifying the patients into low-risk, moderate-risk, and high-risk categories based on similar magnitudes of hazard and validated the performance using another validation cohort. Using the prediction score model, the area under the curve (AUC) [95% confidence interval (CI)] in predicting the 5-year CP incidence in risk score 1 (without the number of AP episodes) was 0.83 (0.79, 0.87), whereas the AUC (95%CI) in risk score 2 (including the number of AP episodes) was 0.84 (0.80, 0.88). This result demonstrated that the risk score 2 has somewhat better prediction performance than risk score 1. However, both of them had similar performance between the derivation and validation cohorts. In the study,we identified the risk factors of CP and developed a prediction score model for CP.

SUBMITTER: Lin YC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6262246 | biostudies-other | 2018 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Risk factors and prediction score for chronic pancreatitis: A nationwide population-based cohort study.

Lin Yen-Chih YC Kor Chew-Teng CT Su Wei-Wen WW Hsu Yu-Chun YC

World journal of gastroenterology 20181101 44

<h4>Aim</h4>To explore the risk factors of developing chronic pancreatitis (CP) in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) and develop a prediction score for CP.<h4>Methods</h4>Using the National Health Insurance Research Database in Taiwan, we obtained large, population-based data of 5971 eligible patients diagnosed with AP from 2000 to 2013. After excluding patients with obstructive pancreatitis and biliary pancreatitis and those with a follow-up period of less than 1 year, we conducted a multiv ...[more]

PMID: 30510378

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Project description:OBJECTIVE:We compared the incidence and risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD) between subjects with new-onset migraine and matched controls without migraine in this large-scale retrospective cohort study. DESIGN:Population-based cohort study. SETTING:8880 subjects with migraine and 503 070 subjects without migraine were enrolled between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2013, all diagnosed to be without kidney disease. All the participants were registered in the National Health Insurance Research Database. PARTICIPANTS:Finally, data from 7156 subjects with migraine and 7156 propensity-score-matched control subjects were analysed. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE:We used Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate adjusted HRs for incident CKD; subgroup analyses were performed to assess the interactive effects of migraine with demographics, comorbidities and long-term medications. RESULTS:The incidence of CKD was higher in the migraine group than in the control group. The risk of developing CKD was significantly higher in subjects with migraine than without migraine (P=0.031). Subjects with migraine aged <65 years (age 40-64 (adjusted HR (aHR) 1.35; 95% CI 1.05 to 1.73); age <40 (aHR 1.55; 95% CI 1.02 to 2.36)), with ≥1 comorbid diseases (1-2 diseases (aHR 1.30; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.68); ≥3 diseases (aHR 1.45; 95% CI 1.01 to 2.07)), and not receiving anti-migraine agents (aHR 1.26; 95% CI 1.04 to 1.54) were at a higher risk of developing CKD compared with the control subjects. The interaction between migraine and comorbidities was not significant; age, male gender and long-term use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) were independent risk factors for CKD in subjects with migraine. CONCLUSION:Migraine may be an independent risk factor for CKD. Young subjects with migraine, and those with comorbid conditions or without medical control, are likely to be at higher risk for CKD. Ageing, male sex and NSAIDs tend to have an association with CKD in subjects with migraine.

Project description:PurposeChronic pancreatitis (CP) can cause fat or bile acid malabsorption due to exocrine insufficiency. Fat or bile acid malabsorption has been reported to increase the risk of urolithiasis through increased intestinal oxalate absorption. However, no studies have reported an association between CP and urolithiasis.MethodsWe identified 15,848 patients (age: ≥20 years) diagnosed as having CP between 2000 and 2010 from the National Health Insurance Research Database as the study cohort. Beneficiaries without a history of CP were randomly selected and propensity-matched with the study cohort in a 1:4 ratio according to age; sex; comorbidities of hyperlipidemia, diabetes, obesity, hypertension, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, alcohol-related illness, stroke, and coronary artery disease; and the index date. The prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease (0.44%), hyperparathyroidism (0.10%), or end stage renal disease (1.55%) in CP patients was low, but these comorbidities were also considered in the analysis. All patients were followed until the end of 2011 or withdrawal from the National Health Insurance program to determine the incidence of urolithiasis.ResultsThe cumulative incidence of urolithiasis was higher in the CP cohort than that in the non-CP cohort (log-rank test, P < 0.001) with a 1.89-fold risk of urolithiasis (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.74-2.06). The prevalence of CP was higher in men (81.9%) and in patients younger than 49 years (63.5%; mean age: 48.5 ± 15.3 years). CP was associated with the development of urolithiasis in each age group (≤49 years: aHR = 2.00, 95% CI = 1.81-2.22; 50-64 years: aHR = 1.71, 95% CI = 1.40-2.09; ≥65 years: aHR = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.20-1.98) and each sex (women: aHR = 2.10, 95% CI = 1.67-2.66; men; aHR = 1.86, 95% CI = 1.70-2.04). Among the patients without comorbidities, the rate of urolithiasis increased from 2.93/1,000 person-years in non-CP patients to 8.28/1,000 person-years in CP patients. Among the patients with comorbidities, the rate of urolithiasis increased from 6.12/1,000 person-years in non-CP patients to 10.9/1,000 person-years in CP patients. The contribution of CP to the relative risk of urolithiasis was greater in patients without comorbidities (without comorbidities: aHR = 2.81, 95% CI = 2.30-3.44) than in those with comorbidities (aHR = 1.76, 95% CI = 1.61-1.94).ConclusionCP is associated with urolithiasis in this population-based cohort study. The contribution of CP to the relative risk of urolithiasis was even greater in patients with a lower risk of urolithiasis, such as those without other comorbidities. Our findings warrant a survey and education on urolithiasis for patients with CP.

Dataset Information

Risk factors and prediction score for chronic pancreatitis: A nationwide population-based cohort study.

Publications

Risk factors and prediction score for chronic pancreatitis: A nationwide population-based cohort study.

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