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Mathematical Modelling of Human African Trypanosomiasis Using Control Measures.

ABSTRACT: Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), commonly known as sleeping sickness, is a neglected tropical vector-borne disease caused by trypanosome protozoa. It is transmitted by bites of infected tsetse fly. In this paper, we first present the vector-host model which describes the general transmission dynamics of HAT. In the tsetse fly population, the HAT is modelled by three compartments, while in the human population, the HAT is modelled by four compartments. The next-generation matrix approach is used to derive the basic reproduction number, R 0, and it is also proved that if R 0 ? 1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, which means the disease dies out. The disease persists in the population if the value of R 0 > 1. Furthermore, the optimal control model is determined by using the Pontryagin's maximum principle, with control measures such as education, treatment, and insecticides used to optimize the objective function. The model simulations confirm that the use of the three control measures is very efficient and effective to eliminate HAT in Africa.

SUBMITTER: Gervas HE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6282183 | biostudies-other | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Mathematical Modelling of Human African Trypanosomiasis Using Control Measures.

Gervas Hamenyimana Emanuel HE Opoku Nicholas Kwasi-Do Ohene NKO Ibrahim Shamsuddeen S

Computational and mathematical methods in medicine 20181122

Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), commonly known as sleeping sickness, is a neglected tropical vector-borne disease caused by trypanosome protozoa. It is transmitted by bites of infected tsetse fly. In this paper, we first present the vector-host model which describes the general transmission dynamics of HAT. In the tsetse fly population, the HAT is modelled by three compartments, while in the human population, the HAT is modelled by four compartments. The next-generation matrix approach is u ...[more]

PMID: 30595713

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Project description:BackgroundIn recent years, a programme of vector control, screening and treatment of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) infections led to a rapid decline in cases in the Mandoul focus of Chad. To represent the biology of transmission between humans and tsetse, we previously developed a mechanistic transmission model, fitted to data between 2000 and 2013 which suggested that transmission was interrupted by 2015. The present study outlines refinements to the model to: (1) Assess whether elimination of transmission has already been achieved despite low-level case reporting; (2) quantify the role of intensified interventions in transmission reduction; and (3) predict the trajectory of gHAT in Mandoul for the next decade under different strategies.MethodOur previous gHAT transmission model for Mandoul was updated using human case data (2000-2019) and a series of model refinements. These include how diagnostic specificity is incorporated into the model and improvements to the fitting method (increased variance in observed case reporting and how underreporting and improvements to passive screening are captured). A side-by-side comparison of fitting to case data was performed between the models.ResultsWe estimated that passive detection rates have increased due to improvements in diagnostic availability in fixed health facilities since 2015, by 2.1-fold for stage 1 detection, and 1.5-fold for stage 2. We find that whilst the diagnostic algorithm for active screening is estimated to be highly specific (95% credible interval (CI) 99.9-100%, Specificity = 99.9%), the high screening and low infection levels mean that some recently reported cases with no parasitological confirmation might be false positives. We also find that the focus-wide tsetse reduction estimated through model fitting (95% CI 96.1-99.6%, Reduction = 99.1%) is comparable to the reduction previously measured by the decline in tsetse catches from monitoring traps. In line with previous results, the model suggests that transmission was interrupted in 2015 due to intensified interventions.ConclusionsWe recommend that additional confirmatory testing is performed in Mandoul to ensure the endgame can be carefully monitored. More specific measurement of cases, would better inform when it is safe to stop active screening and vector control, provided there is a strong passive surveillance system in place.

Project description:BackgroundHuman African Trypanosomiasis is one of the Neglected Tropical Diseases that is targeted for elimination by the World Health Organization. Strong health delivery system in endemic countries is required for a control program to eliminate this disease. In Zambia, Human African Trypanosomiasis is lowly endemic in the northeastern part of the country.FindingsWe conducted a cross-sectional survey of health institutions in Mpika district in Northern Province of Zambia from 9th to 23rd November 2011. The aim of this study was to assess current health delivery system in the management of Human African Trypanosomiasis cases in Mpika district, Northern Province of Zambia. Ten health institutions were covered in the survey. Two structured questionnaires targeting health workers were used to collect the data on general knowledge on HAT and state of health care facilities in relation to HAT management from the surveyed health institution.Only 46% of the 28 respondents scored more than 50% from the questionnaire on general knowledge about Human African Trypanosomiasis disease. None of the respondents knew how to differentiate the two clinical stages of Human African Trypanosomiasis disease. There were only three medical doctors to attend to all Human African Trypanosomiasis cases and other diseases at the only diagnostic and treatment hospital in Mpika district. The supply of antitrypanosomal drugs to the only treatment centre was erratic. Only one refresher course on Human African Trypanosomiasis case diagnosis and management for health staff in the district had been organized by the Ministry of Health in conjunction with the World Health Organization in the district in 2009. The referral system for suspected Human African Trypanosomiasis cases from Rural Health Centres (RHCs) to the diagnostic/treatment centre was inefficient.ConclusionsThere are a number of challenges that have been identified and need to be addressed if Human African Trypanosomiasis is to be eliminated in a lowly endemic country such as Zambia. These include shortage of trained health workers, inadequate diagnostic and treatment centres, lack of more sensitive laboratory diagnostic techniques, shortage of trypanosomicides among others discussed in detail here.

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Mathematical Modelling of Human African Trypanosomiasis Using Control Measures.

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Mathematical Modelling of Human African Trypanosomiasis Using Control Measures.

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