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Informing randomized clinical trials of respiratory syncytial virus vaccination during pregnancy to prevent recurrent childhood wheezing: A sample size analysis.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Early RSV illness is associated with wheeze-associated disorders in childhood. Candidate respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccines may prevent acute RSV illness in infants. We investigated the feasibility of maternal RSV vaccine trials to demonstrate reductions in recurrent childhood wheezing in general paediatric populations. METHODS:We calculated vaccine trial effect sizes that depended on vaccine efficacy, allocation ratio, rate of early severe RSV illness, risk of recurrent wheezing at age 3, and increased risk of RSV infection on recurrent wheezing. Model inputs came from systematic reviews and meta-analyses. For each combination of inputs, we estimated the sample size required to detect the effect of vaccination on recurrent wheezing. RESULTS:There were 81 scenarios with 1:1 allocation ratio. Risk ratios between vaccination and recurrent wheezing ranged from 0.9 to 1.0 for 70% of the scenarios. Among the 57 more plausible scenarios, the lowest sample size required to detect significant reductions in recurrent wheezing was 6196 mother-infant pairs per trial arm; however, 75% and 47% of plausible scenarios required >31,060 and >100,000 mother-infant pairs per trial arm, respectively. Studies with asthma endpoints at age 5 will likely need to be larger. DISCUSSION:Clinical efficacy trials of candidate maternal RSV vaccines undertaken for licensure are unlikely to demonstrate an effect on recurrent wheezing illness due to the large sample sizes likely needed to demonstrate a significant effect. Further efforts are needed to plan for alternative study designs to estimate the impact of maternal RSV vaccine programs on recurrent childhood wheezing in general populations.

SUBMITTER: Riddell CA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6288067 | biostudies-other | 2018 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Informing randomized clinical trials of respiratory syncytial virus vaccination during pregnancy to prevent recurrent childhood wheezing: A sample size analysis.

Riddell Corinne A CA Bhat Niranjan N Bont Louis J LJ Dupont William D WD Feikin Daniel R DR Fell Deshayne B DB Gebretsadik Tebeb T Hartert Tina V TV Hutcheon Jennifer A JA Karron Ruth A RA Nair Harish H Reiner Robert C RC Shi Ting T Sly Peter D PD Stein Renato T RT Wu Pingsheng P Zar Heather J HJ Ortiz Justin R JR

Vaccine 20181122 52

<h4>Background</h4>Early RSV illness is associated with wheeze-associated disorders in childhood. Candidate respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccines may prevent acute RSV illness in infants. We investigated the feasibility of maternal RSV vaccine trials to demonstrate reductions in recurrent childhood wheezing in general paediatric populations.<h4>Methods</h4>We calculated vaccine trial effect sizes that depended on vaccine efficacy, allocation ratio, rate of early severe RSV illness, risk of ...[more]

PMID: 30473186

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Project description:BackgroundEarly-life severe respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) bronchiolitis is a risk factor for childhood asthma. Because azithromycin may attenuate airway inflammation during RSV bronchiolitis, we evaluated whether it would reduce the occurrence of post-RSV recurrent wheeze.MethodsWe prospectively enrolled 200 otherwise healthy 1- to 18-month-old children hospitalized with RSV bronchiolitis in this single-center, double-blind, placebo-controlled study and randomly assigned them to receive oral azithromycin (10 mg/kg daily for 7 days, followed by 5 mg/kg daily for 7 days) or placebo. Randomization was stratified by recent open-label antibiotic use. The primary outcome was the occurrence of recurrent wheeze, defined as a third episode of post-RSV wheeze over the following 2 to 4 years.ResultsAs an indication of the biologic activity of azithromycin, nasal wash interleukin-8 levels, at day 14 after randomization, were lower among azithromycin-treated participants (P<0.01). Despite evidence of biologic activity, azithromycin did not reduce the risk of post-RSV recurrent wheeze (47% in the azithromycin group vs. 36% in the placebo group; adjusted hazard ratio, 1.45; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.92 to 2.29; P=0.11). Azithromycin also did not modify the risk of recurrent wheeze among participants already receiving other antibiotic treatment at the time of enrollment (hazard ratio, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.43 to 2.07). There was a potential signal among antibiotic-naïve participants who received azithromycin to have an increased risk of recurrent wheeze (hazard ratio, 1.79; 95% CI, 1.03 to 3.1).ConclusionsAzithromycin therapy for 14 days during acute severe RSV bronchiolitis did not reduce recurrent wheeze occurrence over the following 2 to 4 years. Our data suggest no benefit of azithromycin administration with the goal of preventing recurrent wheeze in later life. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02911935.).

Project description:BackgroundRespiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the dominant cause of severe lower respiratory tract infection in infants, with the most severe cases concentrated among younger infants.MethodsHealthy pregnant women, at 28 weeks 0 days through 36 weeks 0 days of gestation, with an expected delivery date near the start of the RSV season, were randomly assigned in an overall ratio of approximately 2:1 to receive a single intramuscular dose of RSV fusion (F) protein nanoparticle vaccine or placebo. Infants were followed for 180 days to assess outcomes related to lower respiratory tract infection and for 364 days to assess safety. The primary end point was RSV-associated, medically significant lower respiratory tract infection up to 90 days of life, and the primary analysis of vaccine efficacy against the primary end point was performed in the per-protocol population of infants (prespecified criterion for success, lower bound of the 97.52% confidence interval [CI] of ≥30%).ResultsA total of 4636 women underwent randomization, and there were 4579 live births. During the first 90 days of life, the percentage of infants with RSV-associated, medically significant lower respiratory tract infection was 1.5% in the vaccine group and 2.4% in the placebo group (vaccine efficacy, 39.4%; 97.52% CI, -1.0 to 63.7; 95% CI, 5.3 to 61.2). The corresponding percentages for RSV-associated lower respiratory tract infection with severe hypoxemia were 0.5% and 1.0% (vaccine efficacy, 48.3%; 95% CI, -8.2 to 75.3), and the percentages for hospitalization for RSV-associated lower respiratory tract infection were 2.1% and 3.7% (vaccine efficacy, 44.4%; 95% CI, 19.6 to 61.5). Local injection-site reactions among the women were more common with vaccine than with placebo (40.7% vs. 9.9%), but the percentages of participants who had other adverse events were similar in the two groups.ConclusionsRSV F protein nanoparticle vaccination in pregnant women did not meet the prespecified success criterion for efficacy against RSV-associated, medically significant lower respiratory tract infection in infants up to 90 days of life. The suggestion of a possible benefit with respect to other end-point events involving RSV-associated respiratory disease in infants warrants further study. (Funded by Novavax and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02624947.).

Dataset Information

Informing randomized clinical trials of respiratory syncytial virus vaccination during pregnancy to prevent recurrent childhood wheezing: A sample size analysis.

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Informing randomized clinical trials of respiratory syncytial virus vaccination during pregnancy to prevent recurrent childhood wheezing: A sample size analysis.

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