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Persistence of false paradigms in low-power sciences.

ABSTRACT: We develop a model describing how false paradigms may persist, hindering scientific progress. The model features two paradigms, one describing reality better than the other. Tenured scientists display homophily: They favor tenure candidates who adhere to their paradigm. As in statistics, power is the probability (absent any bias) of denying tenure to scientists adhering to the false paradigm. The model shows that because of homophily, when power is low, the false paradigm may prevail. Then, only an increase in power can ignite convergence to the true paradigm. Historical case studies suggest that low power comes either from lack of empirical evidence or from reluctance to base tenure decisions on available evidence.

SUBMITTER: Akerlof GA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6310847 | biostudies-other | 2018 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Persistence of false paradigms in low-power sciences.

Akerlof George A GA Michaillat Pascal P

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20181206 52

We develop a model describing how false paradigms may persist, hindering scientific progress. The model features two paradigms, one describing reality better than the other. Tenured scientists display homophily: They favor tenure candidates who adhere to their paradigm. As in statistics, power is the probability (absent any bias) of denying tenure to scientists adhering to the false paradigm. The model shows that because of homophily, when power is low, the false paradigm may prevail. Then, only ...[more]

PMID: 30523117

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